6/9 vs mets

[msstate7]

I've been quite clear, going back to last year, about what I think Dansby can/will be long term.

So how terrible is he right now? He's been one of the worst regulars in MLB for the first 10 weeks of the season. This instant? He looks confident, like the game is slowing down for him. I think--and have posted--he's going to be fine. If you want to whitewash the fact that it took him 'til June to get over the Mendoza line, that's up to you.

He had an abysmal April. On may 1st, he was .151/.202./.226 w/BABIP of .182. Since may 1st (doesn't include his 2-3, 2 2b, bb tonight), he's .250/.353/.402 w/BABIP of .304.

April = 6.1% bb, 25.3% k

Since may (not tonight) = 14.3%, 23.3%

 

[smootness]

Agreed but he didn't inspire much confidence.

It is always dumb to judge baseball players on their results over a relatively short period of time. Always.

 

[Southcack77]

It was always way premature.

Well, there were two bad slumps really.

 

[smootness]

Well, there were two bad slumps really.

It was still always premature. It's barely June. Heck, I'm sure he'll struggle some more this year, and people will freak out. And it will still be premature. He's 23.

 

[Pugfan]

according to my math he has a .763 OPS since the end of April. ISO and Walk rates have improved every month. On pace for 16 homers

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Chipper approves
[TW]873382132495900672[/TW]

 

[jpx7]

If you want to assume that was his true level and not just quite a bit of bad luck, that's up to you.

Terrible K- and BB-rates were not bad luck; moreover, he just looked lost in the bulk of his PA. I'm hoping he's turning it around—the numbers portend that way—and can salvage this season, considering his obvious room to grow. But if anything was "premature", it was the Braves installing him not just as Long-Term SS, but as Face of Franchise, before he'd even had a chance to prove himself at AAA.

 

[thethe]

Are we at a sufficient sample size yet to evaluate the Braves offensively?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Are we at a sufficient sample size yet to evaluate the Braves offensively?

No. Kemp has to normalize.

 

[auyushu]

Are we at a sufficient sample size yet to evaluate the Braves offensively?

I'd say so, but at 16th in runs scored we are middle of the pack, which is pretty much where most people predicted anyway. Kemp will likely slow down a little more offensively and wind up in the mid to high .800 OPS range for the year, but I think/hope that Dansby will continue to be solid the rest of the way and make up that difference. We've had one of the weakest schedules in baseball in general, and in particular it's been weak in terms of the pitching we've faced (we had faced the third easiest schedule overall and in terms of pitching faced at the end of May), so with a tougher schedule in the second half we might drop off a bit, but I imagine the return of Freddie will keep us around the middle of the pack in runs scored overall even with a tougher schedule.

 

[Southcack77]

Are we at a sufficient sample size yet to evaluate the Braves offensively?

Braves numbers fairly stabile since the last time we had this discussion -- AVG/OBP/BABIP amongst leagues best. Still One of the teams that strikes out the least, but also walks the least. I think some of the numbers like Rs, WRC, WAR, etc have been improved slightly as they are sitting dead center of MLB in most of those offensive categories now.

 

[Southcack77]

I'd say so, but at 16th in runs scored we are middle of the pack, which is pretty much where most people predicted anyway. Kemp will likely slow down a little more offensively and wind up in the mid to high .800 OPS range for the year, but I think/hope that Dansby will continue to be solid the rest of the way and make up that difference. We've had one of the weakest schedules in baseball in general, and in particular it's been weak in terms of the pitching we've faced (we had faced the third easiest schedule overall and in terms of pitching faced at the end of May), so with a tougher schedule in the second half we might drop off a bit, but I imagine the return of Freddie will keep us around the middle of the pack in runs scored overall even with a tougher schedule.

The argument was average to slightly above average vs. one of the league's worst offenses if I recall correctly.

 

[msstate7]

Braves ranks in nl:

Avg - 3rd

Obp - 2nd

Slugging - 8th

Ops - 7th

 

[auyushu]

The argument was average to slightly above average vs. one of the league's worst offenses if I recall correctly.

I don't remember anyone saying league's worst offense, and barely anyone saying we would be below average offensively. The reason most people including Enscheff thought we would be at least a mid to high 70 win team was because we thought we'd be an average offense and average pitching team. If people thought we were going to suck offensively the realist contingent such as myself would have been predicting a win total closer to 70ish. Everyone knew we'd be below average defensively due to poor corner OF defense and crap 3B defense, so we were counting on decent offense to hit that win total.

 

[thethe]

No. Kemp has to normalize.

Gotcha. I'll wait then....

 

[thethe]

I don't remember anyone saying league's worst offense, and barely anyone saying we would be below average offensively. The reason most people including Enscheff thought we would be at least a mid to high 70 win team was because we thought we'd be an average offense and average pitching team. If people thought we were going to suck offensively the realist contingent such as myself would have been predicting a win total closer to 70ish. Everyone knew we'd be below average defensively due to poor corner OF defense and crap 3B defense, so we were counting on decent offense to hit that win total.

Seriously?

 

[thethe]

2016 June 10th Attendence (Friday) vs. Cubs 30,547
2017 June 9th Attendance (Friday) vs. Mets 36,791

% increase 20.4

Have to think that hte Cubs are a much bigger draw than the Mets as well. I'd say attendance is starting to trend towards exactly what the Braves have hoped and potentially even better. Team needs to stay competitive though. If the team can find a way to stay a few games below 500 when Freeman comes back then I would expect to come close to that sweet spot of 2.5 - 2.7 M fans. Potentially 2018 is an actual contention year and that moves closer to 3M in the future.

Average increase in fans for 2017 over 2016 - 4,417
% increase in fans for 2017 over 2016 - 17.7%

Total percentage increase is without the bump they are going to get for the summer months. Everything is falling into place!

 

[thewupk]

He had an abysmal April. On may 1st, he was .151/.202./.226 w/BABIP of .182. Since may 1st (doesn't include his 2-3, 2 2b, bb tonight), he's .250/.353/.402 w/BABIP of .304.

April = 6.1% bb, 25.3% k
Since may (not tonight) = 14.3%, 23.3%

Dansby hit like **** in May. However he's hit at an MVP level in June so far

 

[thewupk]

The argument was average to slightly above average vs. one of the league's worst offenses if I recall correctly.

Indeed. I assumed bottom 3rd in the NL in offense. They seem to be squarely average and barring a major collapse will likely finish the season that way.

So instead of a poor lineup an average pitching we got an average lineup and poor pitching. Braves are on pace for 74 wins still. Hard to say if that's inflated a little due to the entire division being **** besides Washington.

 

[thethe]

Indeed. I assumed bottom 3rd in the NL in offense. They seem to be squarely average and barring a major collapse will likely finish the season that way.

Would be awesome if Adams could play a passable third with his weight loss. That's unlikely though.