Realistic Trade Partners

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
As the trade deadline approaches, the "sellers" and "buyers" have emerged. The Braves are clearly sellers, so here's a breakdown of the most valuable trade chips they are likely to unload at the deadline (with their projected production and surplus values for the rest of contractual control as of the trading deadline):

Phillips - .700-.750 OPS, minimal salary remaining, ~1 WAR RoS plus everyday ABs in playoffs....surplus value of ~$10M.

Garcia - ~4.0 FIP, $3M salary remaining, < 1 WAR RoS, no projected playoff starts...surplus value ~$5M.

Adams - .750-.800 OPS, $1M salary remaining, < 1 WAR RoS plus postseason ABs, controlled for 2018 at $3.5M-$4M...surplus value ~$5M+.

Viz/JJ - decent setup arms that will see some high leverage postseason innings...surplus value in the $5M range each.

The idea is to find teams that need 2-3 of these players in hopes of getting a legit high 45/low-50 FV type prospect. Only teams with very high chances of reaching the playoffs will likely be willing to pay that type of price to upgrade the roster. This post is not concerned with 40 FV guys in exchange for 1 of these trade pieces, so this post is limited to the teams with a 25%+ chance of making the playoffs per FG: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Nats, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, DBacks.

We will look at each team's production at the relevant positions (2B, 1B, and DH), assume only teams needing a backend SP will want Garcia, and also assume all teams will be looking to add a BP arm.

Yankees - 2B: 870 OPS, 1B .653 OPS, DH: .890 OPS, back-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches with the Braves: Adams, Garcia, and a BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Miguel Andujar - 3B, AA, 45 FV, #11 in their system.

Red Sox - 2B: .699 (Pedrioa), 1B: .832, DH: .761, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches: Garcia and BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Blue Jays - 2B: .692, 1B: .923, DH: .799, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches: Garcia and BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Indians - 2B: .767, 1B: 710, DH: .925, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: maybe Adams and a BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Astros - 2B: .969, 1B: .819, DH: .769, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: None, they have an elite BP already.

Nats - 2B: .913, 1B: .985, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Cubs - 2B: .746, 1B: .908, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL Central

Matches: Garcia, BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Rockies - 2B: .743, 1B .959, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

Dodgers - 2B: .846, 1B: .800, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

DBacks - 2B: .838, 1B: Goldschmidt, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

Conclusion - The lack of suitors for Phillips is likely why the Braves got him for literally nothing. The only real chance the Braves have at getting a legit prospect is from a team that wants both Adams, Garcia and a BP arm. The only team that fits that description is the Yankees, and I would like to see them target Adujar as the return.

Other than that one potential trade, I don't see any moves happening that impact the Braves system.
 
I don't know if we would trade JJ within the division but the Nats would be all over him or Viz bc their bullpen is terrible.
 
I still think the Mariners might be interested in Adams. Twins need pitching, so Garcia could be a fit there. Neither of those teams is brimming with prospects, but there may be a projectible piece.
 
First, excellent work, and bravo for the effort.

Second, if the trade return is "nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece," why bother? I'm not saying it's Yankees or bust, but....
 
JohnAdcox said:
First, excellent work, and bravo for the effort.

Second, if the trade return is "nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece," why bother? I'm not saying it's Yankees or bust, but....
Click to expand...

That's why I didn't bother listing potential returns for those teams. Quite frankly, some random 40 FV guy isn't even worth having much of a discussion about.

The Braves need to partner up with a contender that needs 2 from the group of Adams/Phillips/Garcia plus a BP arm to drive the value required to net a legit prospect. I went through all the legit contenders, and the only team that needed enough of the parts the Braves are selling to give up a legit prospect was the Yankees. I didn't know beforehand that no other teams needed multiple parts the Braves could provide (I literally wrote the post as I dug up the info...Yanks were first because AL East was first on the list in the standings).

I was pretty surprised to see that no contenders need Phillips. That's a bummer because he is likely the most valuable trade chip due to his production and extremely low salary.
 
JohnAdcox said:
First, excellent work, and bravo for the effort.

Second, if the trade return is "nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece," why bother? I'm not saying it's Yankees or bust, but....
Click to expand...

This! I guarantee there's going to be some desperate team that gives up that 50 FV prospect for one of our pieces.
 
50PoundHead said:
I still think the Mariners might be interested in Adams. Twins need pitching, so Garcia could be a fit there. Neither of those teams is brimming with prospects, but there may be a projectible piece.
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All the Mariners decent "prospects" are at the MLB level, and teams that fancy themselves contenders don't trade value away from their MLB roster.

The Twins do have an interesting AAA catcher named Mitch Garver.

If they think they can keep up with the Indians they might want Garcia, as you suggested. They have no need at 2B (.750), 1B (.785) or DH (.742 OPS) unfortunately. There is no way Garcia plus a BP arm is going to get the Braves a prospect like Garver.
 
Jay212033 said:
This! I guarantee there's going to be some desperate team that gives up that 50 FV prospect for one of our pieces.
Click to expand...

You think there is a contender that will give up a prospect the equivalent of Soroka, Pache, Newk or Wentz? Those are 50 FV prospects.

Which contender would do that for any one piece the Braves will be selling?
 
Jay212033 said:
This! I guarantee there's going to be some desperate team that gives up that 50 FV prospect for one of our pieces.
Click to expand...

The return could well be something injured like fried, something out of favor, something that is spare (like an OF in Colorado or Milwaukee), or something far away and protectable. Failing that high leverage bullpen prospects might work.
 
Enscheff said:
You think there is a contender that will give up a prospect the equivalent of Soroka, Pache, Newk or Wentz? Those are 50 FV prospects.

Which contender would do that for any one piece the Braves will be selling?
Click to expand...

Something like Pache or Acuna this time last year?
 
Enscheff said:
As the trade deadline approaches, the "sellers" and "buyers" have emerged. The Braves are clearly sellers, so here's a breakdown of the most valuable trade chips they are likely to unload at the deadline (with their projected production and surplus values for the rest of contractual control as of the trading deadline):

Phillips - .700-.750 OPS, minimal salary remaining, ~1 WAR RoS plus everyday ABs in playoffs....surplus value of ~$10M.

Garcia - ~4.0 FIP, $3M salary remaining, < 1 WAR RoS, no projected playoff starts...surplus value ~$5M.

Adams - .750-.800 OPS, $1M salary remaining, < 1 WAR RoS plus postseason ABs, controlled for 2018 at $3.5M-$4M...surplus value ~$5M+.

Viz/JJ - decent setup arms that will see some high leverage postseason innings...surplus value in the $5M range each.

The idea is to find teams that need 2-3 of these players in hopes of getting a legit high 45/low-50 FV type prospect. Only teams with very high chances of reaching the playoffs will likely be willing to pay that type of price to upgrade the roster. This post is not concerned with 40 FV guys in exchange for 1 of these trade pieces, so this post is limited to the teams with a 25%+ chance of making the playoffs per FG: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Nats, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, DBacks.

We will look at each team's production at the relevant positions (2B, 1B, and DH), assume only teams needing a backend SP will want Garcia, and also assume all teams will be looking to add a BP arm.

Yankees - 2B: 870 OPS, 1B .653 OPS, DH: .890 OPS, back-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches with the Braves: Adams, Garcia, and a BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Miguel Andujar - 3B, AA, 45 FV, #11 in their system.

Red Sox - 2B: .699 (Pedrioa), 1B: .832, DH: .761, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches: Garcia and BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Blue Jays - 2B: .692, 1B: .923, DH: .799, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dog fight in the AL East.

Matches: Garcia and BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Indians - 2B: .767, 1B: 710, DH: .925, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: maybe Adams and a BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Astros - 2B: .969, 1B: .819, DH: .769, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: None, they have an elite BP already.

Nats - 2B: .913, 1B: .985, back end SP?: No, they are very likely to make the postseason and don't need a back-end guy

Matches: BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Cubs - 2B: .746, 1B: .908, back end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL Central

Matches: Garcia, BP arm.

Favorite realistic target: Nothing realistic, most likely to be some FV 40 filler for a single piece.

Rockies - 2B: .743, 1B .959, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

Dodgers - 2B: .846, 1B: .800, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

DBacks - 2B: .838, 1B: Goldschmidt, beck-end SP?: Yes, they are in a dogfight in the NL West

See Cubs.

Conclusion - The lack of suitors for Phillips is likely why the Braves got him for literally nothing. The only real chance the Braves have at getting a legit prospect is from a team that wants both Adams, Garcia and a BP arm. The only team that fits that description is the Yankees, and I would like to see them target Adujar as the return.

Other than that one potential trade, I don't see any moves happening that impact the Braves system.
Click to expand...

Would love to pick up Andujar but I think Garcia, Adams, and a BP guy would bring back more. Not much more but that fills a ton of the Yankees needs to give them a big boost. Not sure what else or what other prospect thought.
 
Enscheff said:
You think there is a contender that will give up a prospect the equivalent of Soroka, Pache, Newk or Wentz? Those are 50 FV prospects.

Which contender would do that for any one piece the Braves will be selling?
Click to expand...

I seriously doubt they'd do it for one single piece, but I could see us getting Dustin Fowler from the Yankees for a package of Adams and Garcia/Johnson. But I'd agree with your assertion that the Yankees are the only realistic major trade partners for us, outside of maybe the Astros. I think you are underrating how useful Garcia would be to the Astros given their injury problems with their rotation. Adams would also be an upgrade over Gurriel, though it's hard to say if they are going to move on from that money investment. I would have said their OF Fisher would have been a good 45 FV fit, but now he's up playing LF for them.

On a side note, it really really sucks that Julio lost it at the beginning of this season, the Astros or Yankees would have made amazing trade partners this year if he was pitching even halfway decent.
 
auyushu said:
I seriously doubt they'd do it for one single piece, but I could see us getting Dustin Fowler from the Yankees for a package of Adams and Garcia/Johnson. But I'd agree with your assertion that the Yankees are the only realistic major trade partners for us, outside of maybe the Astros. I think you are underrating how useful Garcia would be to the Astros given their injury problems with their rotation. Adams would also be an upgrade over Gurriel, though it's hard to say if they are going to move on from that money investment.
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I used to think the Astros matched up well too until I saw how well their 1B and DH positions were doing.

The fact that the Astros are all but assured of winning the division means they don't need an SP that won't make a playoff start for them. I think the Astros target one of the TOR guys: Darvish, Cueto, Archer, Quintana, or Cole if the Pirates decide to sell his last couple years of control.

Nobody is going to acquire Garcia to pitch in the playoffs, so only contenders that need him during the regular season will come calling for him.
 
Enscheff said:
I used to think the Astros matched up well too until I saw how well their 1B and DH positions were doing.

The fact that the Astros are all but assured of winning the division means they don't need an SP that won't make a playoff start for them. I think the Astros target one of the TOR guys: Darvish, Cueto, Archer, Quintana, or Cole if the Pirates decide to sell his last couple years of control.

Nobody is going to acquire Garcia to pitch in the playoffs, so only contenders that need him during the regular season will come calling for him.
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Astros are using gurriel as primary 1b. His ops is .745... less than ender, Phillips, Markakis, and Suzuki
 
msstate7 said:
Astros are using gurriel as primary 1b. His ops is .745... less than ender, Phillips, Markakis, and Suzuki
Click to expand...

And Adams is projected to OPS around .750-.800 once his HR rate normalizes. Not sure they will be paying much for a minimal upgrade.

Instead of just nitpicking, how about adding to the discussion with your own thought? What do you think the Astros would give up for Adams?
 
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