Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread

Enscheff said:
Did you just pull a random name out of your ass? Archer throws a FA, SL, SI and CH.
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Just looking at Fangraphs he hasn't thrown a sinker since 2014. His Fourseam and Slider have accounted for over 90% of his pitches, with his change being thrown less than 10% over that time. So he has developed basically into a two pitch pitcher.
 
Enscheff said:
I added to my original response.
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Yeah I mainly listed him as a point of reference for the CH. I agree that if Newk can even throw it between 5-8% of the time, like Archer has the last three seasons, could be enough for success.

I like that even in your edited version you left the part about me pulling a name out of my ass.
 
Enscheff said:
Did you just pull a random name out of your ass? Archer throws a FA, SL, SI and CH. he ditched the SI after his rookie year it looks like though.

Archer may be a good example of how often the 3rd pitch need a to be used though. He only throws the CH ~6% of the time this year. So Newk only has to be able to throw it half a dozen times per game to keep guys off his other 2 pitches.
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He fits the criteria you set.

Rich hill is another but not the model of consistency obviously.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
Yeah I mainly listed him as a point of reference for the CH. I agree that if Newk can even throw it between 5-8% of the time, like Archer has the last three seasons, could be enough for success.

I like that even in your edited version you left the part about me pulling a name out of my ass.
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I figured it was a legitimate question.

Knowing Newk only needs a change he can use 5-10 times a game makes it easier to envision him taking the next step to being a 3+ win guy.
 
I don't see the need to buy an ace at the deadline. I would rather address SP in free agency. Darvish would be nice but unlikely. The two I'd like to kick the tires on are Alex Cobb or Pineda. These guys have the potential to take
that next step but at the least they are solid 2's or 3's... figure out which of our big SP prospects we want to keep the most and then trade to fill offense. Say Freeman works well at third and Kemp plays a good first base. That's two elite guys. Ender is elite all around. Swanson and Albies have the chance to be elite soon. I think Flowers paired with another solid framer is an elite unit with the adjustment he's made. I don't want to even think about Lucroy anymore. Then we have quite a lot of fire power to trade for difference makers in left and right field. Keep playing Adams this year at first and how Freeman works out. If it's working, trade him if we get a good offer and put Kemp at first. This all could get very interesting.
 
zbhargrove said:
I don't see the need to buy an ace at the deadline. I would rather address SP in free agency. Darvish would be nice but unlikely. The two I'd like to kick the tires on are Alex Cobb or Pineda. These guys have the potential to take
that next step but at the least they are solid 2's or 3's... figure out which of our big SP prospects we want to keep the most and then trade to fill offense. Say Freeman works well at third and Kemp plays a good first base. That's two elite guys. Ender is elite all around. Swanson and Albies have the chance to be elite soon. I think Flowers paired with another solid framer is an elite unit with the adjustment he's made. I don't want to even think about Lucroy anymore. Then we have quite a lot of fire power to trade for difference makers in left and right field. Keep playing Adams this year at first and how Freeman works out. If it's working, trade him if we get a good offer and put Kemp at first. This all could get very interesting.
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Sounds like we are very close to being elite, to coin a phrase.
 
Interesting article on FG calculating Stanton's trade value:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/assessing-the-trade-value-of-giancarlo-stanton/

The surplus value calculation is something we've all seen and done ourselves a million times, so that part isn't particularly interesting.

The interesting part is that $17M/WAR value the author assigns to Stanton's projected remaining 2017 WAR. This extra money is what we refer to as the "contender's premium". In Stanton's case, the author speculates a contending team should be willing to pay an extra $18M for Stanton just because they are relatively certain they will make the post season this year, and will use him in post season games NOW.

That is a significant cost, as $18M is about the value of a Top 100 position prospect or a Top 60 pitching prospect. The author doesn't offer any justification for arriving at that 2x value, but it logically passes the sniff test.

This is why the Braves would be foolish to add a long term piece at the trade deadline when they are not competing for a playoff spot. Paying the contender premium when you aren't a contender is a foolish use of resources.
 
Enscheff said:
Interesting article on FG calculating Stanton's trade value:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/assessing-the-trade-value-of-giancarlo-stanton/

The surplus value calculation is something we've all seen and done ourselves a million times, so that part isn't particularly interesting.

The interesting part is that $17M/WAR value the author assigns to Stanton's projected remaining 2017 WAR. This extra money is what we refer to as the "contender's premium". In Stanton's case, the author speculates a contending team should be willing to pay an extra $18M for Stanton just because they are relatively certain they will make the post season this year, and will use him in post season games NOW.

That is a significant cost, as $18M is about the value of a Top 100 position prospect or a Top 60 pitching prospect. The author doesn't offer any justification for arriving at that 2x value, but it logically passes the sniff test.

This is why the Braves would be foolish to add a long term piece at the trade deadline when they are not competing for a playoff spot. Paying the contender premium when you aren't a contender is a foolish use of resources.
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contenders in recent years seem willing to overpay 20-30% when making mid-seaso deals...ie pay 12-13 in expected WAR in exchange for 10
 
nsacpi said:
contenders in recent years seem willing to overpay 20-30% when making mid-seaso deals...ie pay 12-13 in expected WAR in exchange for 10
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That is a substantial premium for contenders. Hopefully the Braves are smart enough not to pay that premium when they aren't contending.
 
Enscheff said:
That is a substantial premium for contenders. Hopefully the Braves are smart enough not to pay that premium when they aren't contending.
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yeah...guys like gray will probably fetch a premium...but if we can get someone like that without overpaying we should...off-season will probably be a better time for that kind of trade
 
If we "buy" at the deadline I hope it's us getting a salary dump or getting a useful but overpaid player + some other assets.

Buying Quinatana now just doesn't make sense to me unless he gets dumped for no reason. Can he throw a tantrum or two.
 
Enscheff said:
I would be interested to see if you can identify any starter that has produced 3+ WAR over more than a couple seasons without throwing a third pitch ~10% of the time. A true 2 pitch guy that was a MOR pitcher or better for an extended period of time.
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Without looking, the pitchers that came to mind as popular two pitch pitchers were Randy Johnson, David Price, Chris Archer, Derek Lowe, and Roy Oswalt. And looking at fangraphs, that seems to support my thinking for the most part.

Luckily someone did this for you, using basically the same parameters as you suggested:

https://www.draysbay.com/2013/8/29/4671496/chris-archer-a-two-pitch-pitcher

And that's only between like 2008 and 2012.
 
Carp said:
Without looking, the pitchers that came to mind as popular two pitch pitchers were Randy Johnson, David Price, Chris Archer, Derek Lowe, and Roy Oswalt. And looking at fangraphs, that seems to support my thinking for the most part.

Luckily someone did this for you, using basically the same parameters as you suggested:

https://www.draysbay.com/2013/8/29/4671496/chris-archer-a-two-pitch-pitcher

And that's only between like 2008 and 2012.
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Crazy that you found an article where someone answered the exact question I asked haha. I was looking for more sustained success than 1 outlier season, but that list of names is informative. Here are the guys that appear on the list more than once (meaning sustained success with 2 pitches, * indicates more than twice):

Archer (we know he is a good comp)
Burnett
Kershaw
Jackson
Gio*
Kuroda*
Santana
Beckett

The question then becomes, are Newk's 2 pitches as good as those guys' 2 pitches? We can't compare all the pitches to each other easily, but we can compare FA velocity. Here are the average FA velocities of Archer, Gio and Kuroda over the 3 seasons they posted 3+ WAR as 2-pitch guys:

Archer: 95.0-95.9
Gio: 92.8-94.2
Kuroda: 92.1-93.1

Gio and Kuroda posted those average velocities back when the average MLB FA was more than 1 MPH slower than today, so we can mentally add 1 MPH to account for "velocity inflation".

Newcomb: 92.8

So Newk's FA is sitting a 1-2 ticks below the velocity those guys had on their FA to make being a 2-pitch guy work for an extended period of time. In other words, it doesn't appear his 2 pitches are good enough to sustain success by using only those 2 pitches.

It should also be noted those guys all used a 3rd pitch more than Newk currently does. They had a better FA than Newk AND they used a 3rd pitch more often to get these results.

I still think he needs to add a 3rd pitch, and I still think it needs to be a change. He probably only needs to get that change to about a 45 and use it ~10 times per game to be a truly effective SP over a decent stretch of time. It is certainly doable.

Oddly enough, I have seen Gio comps thrown around for Newk quite a bit. We should all be thrilled if that's what he ends up being.
 
One thing with Newk's FA velocity is that is really changes from pitch to pitch. look at the guys above. They sit within 3mph of max and min.. Newk in the 2 starts I have watched with accurate gun readings. he has gone from 91 to 96.. I wonder if that is purposefully as a way to keep hard contact off his FA.. and thus not have to show his change that much. His change sits in the 85 to 89 range if I am remembering correctly. That is the bad thing about watching him on MiLBtv.. no gun readings.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
One thing with Newk's FA velocity is that is really changes from pitch to pitch. look at the guys above. They sit within 3mph of max and min.. Newk in the 2 starts I have watched with accurate gun readings. he has gone from 91 to 96.. I wonder if that is purposefully as a way to keep hard contact off his FA.. and thus not have to show his change that much. His change sits in the 85 to 89 range if I am remembering correctly. That is the bad thing about watching him on MiLBtv.. no gun readings.
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Not sure where you got that info, but a quick looks at a typical Archer season shows his FA ranged from 90-99.

I doubt Newk is intentionally varying his FA valocity any more than any of the other guys on this list.
 
Enscheff said:
Not sure where you got that info, but a quick looks at a typical Archer season shows his FA ranged from 90-99.

I doubt Newk is intentionally varying his FA valocity any more than any of the other guys on this list.
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I mis-read the post.. the range for archer was 3 year average range.. not FA range.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I mis-read the post.. the range for archer was 3 year average range.. not FA range.
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You didn't misread anything...I edited to make it more precise.

And I'm pretty sure you're the one throwing out Gio comps on Newk months ago, so good call there. I think that's a spot on comp for Newk's most likely "good" outcome.
 
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