No one should be judging a rebuild until the fruits of it ripen. I don't think the White Sox have done particularly better than the Braves have so far.
Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
No one should be judging a rebuild until the fruits of it ripen. I don't think the White Sox have done particularly better than the Braves have so far.
yea I totally agree with that.
You can judge the process and the White Sox have done well for themselves since they started
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
imo Eloy is worth a bit more that your estimate...id say around 80M (9 wins at about 9M/win) given the #5 ranking on BA's mid-season list. And Cease is worth around 35M (4 wins at about 9M/win) given his ranking. These numbers are expected surplus value for their respective positions on BA's list. The White Sox did well. I agree with your estimate of Q's value. They got a contender's premium of about 40%. Standard contender's premium seems to be 20-30%.
Anyone who judges by results instead of by the process is a fool.
And once again, surplus value proves to be an accurate way to value these trades.
Now we just need a derpi-Braves poster to chime in with some cliche anti-intellectual comment to put the cherry on top.
How would you equate the same approach to Teheran? How much surplus value is left on his deal and what kind of prospect would you project in return for him at this point?
I don't think Cease has jumped that much but he could be. We will see in a few weeks. I think Eloy is a 65 FV player which in the off season was worth 70 million in surplus. You could argue that the inflation since then has bumped him to 80 million and I wouldn't really disagree with that.
Teheran is controlled for 3.5 more years at a total cost of ~$34M. Depending on how much someone thinks his current funk is real or a blip, he could be projected to produce 6-10 WAR over that time. That is $20M-$60M in surplus value.
Had the Braves dealt Julio 2 years ago, that surplus value would have been closer to what Q's value is now, and maybe more.
Coppy ****ed up by keeping Julio during the rebuild. There are no if's, and's or but's about it.
Southcack77
Well-known member
You don't think Teheran would've brought back a big return last year or the year before it? That's a new one.
We have shown time and time again that we can fairly accurately analyze trades using surplus value. We have a veryt good idea what the return for Teheran would have been.
How many times do those numbers have to prove correct for you to stop saying naive things like this?
The Braves didn't trade Julio because they valued him as a key piece to a 2017 contender. They were wrong. We said they were wrong at the time. We were right.
sturg33
I
Easy to say ... but considering Coppy on multiple occasions flatly stated "we will not trade Julio" then I question how willing he was to make the deal.
I think he was so concerned about him opening up the new park that he lost sight of bigger picture.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The two pitchers were both signed to long term under market deals. They absolutely could have kept them for a long time.
They chose to sell off extremely valuable assets rather than try to compete. It follows that they got back good prospects.
So good job breaking up a young core of cheaply signed major league assets in a somewhat efficient manner? Yay?
LOL, you really are bending over backwards to defend the Braves FO.
The problem with Julio is getting a base line on what he's going to provide the rest of his contract. Buyers are going to see his 1.1 WAR season in 2015 and his negative war so far in 2017 and try to rightfully buy low. Hopefully the Braves would try to sell them on Julio being a 3 WAR player in 2016 and 2014 with 2015 being an injury season. And hopefully they could spin 2017 as Julio just being bad in the new park and point to his sub 3 ERA on the road.
Julio has actually been a 0.6 fWAR pitcher on the road this year in 57 innings. Based on that I wouldn't go any lower than a 2 WAR player as his baseline going forward. As a seller I would value Julio at 7 WAR over the remainder of his contract which is worth around 63 million in value. Julio is making 34 million on the remainder of his contract. So he would have a surplus value of around 29 million in this scenario. That should net a 55 FV player that is close to the majors.
The Braves really missed on trading him last year at the deadline. They could of sold him as a 3 WAR player with an additional year of control and that would be immensely more valuable.
Makes sense. It's really not arguable that the front office dropped the ball by keeping Teheran last deadline. That said, if we could get a 55 FV player right now for Teheran, I'm taking that without thinking twice.
Yeah. Like I said I think it would either be someone close to the majors or with injury concerns. For example both Maitan and Fried were 55 FV players in the offseason. I wouldn't expect JT to be traded for a Maitan type but I could see it for someone like Fried (before he fell apart this year).
I keep looking at Derek Fisher with Houston as a guy that could make sense. He's probably a 50 FV (Longenhagen had him as a 45 FV preseason) now and close to the majors, but I like the idea of him and Acuna in the corners starting next year. Maybe get Garrett Stubbs or a pitcher to go along with him, and I'd be happy with it.
Agreed