Talking Chop has completed their midseason prospect rankings

UNCBlue012 said:
You know the Acuna bandwagon is really now that Gondee has jumped on.
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Folks being swayed by that .400+ BABIP.

It's almost like we haven't seen this story play out dozens of times in the past.

Camargo's and Acuna's numbers crashing will be the next examples...and folks still won't learn.
 
Enscheff said:
Folks being swayed by that .400+ BABIP.

It's almost like we haven't seen this story play out dozens of times in the past.
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BABIP and the insights that come from it is one of the biggest contributions of the analytical movement in baseball. And yet a lot of pretty smart people are not giving it enough weight in their analysis.
 
Enscheff said:
Folks being swayed by that .400+ BABIP.

It's almost like we haven't seen this story play out dozens of times in the past.

Camargo's and Acuna's numbers crashing will be the next examples...and folks still won't learn.
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Leave Camargo out of it for a second.

What's your objection to Acuna being named #1 on these lists? Do you have one? Yes, his BABIP should drop and his Ks are very concerning.
 
Southcack77 said:
Leave Camargo out of it for a second.

What's your objection to Acuna being named #1 on these lists? Do you have one? Yes, his BABIP should drop and his Ks are very concerning.
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I do not doubt Acuna is a premium prospect. I do not doubt he is likely to end up being the best player on the Braves by the time Freeman starts to decline. I think he slots in right behind Eloy and is neck and neck with Robles for the best young OF prospects in the game.

Right now, Albies is producing a .900+ OPS in AAA as a 20 year old after shaking off the rust from elbow surgery with a much more sustainable .351 BABIP, and plays above average defense at an up the middle position. He is undoubtedly the most valuable prospect in the system at this very moment.

My issue is with the Braves rushing Acuna for no apparent reason. His BB rates were down, and his K rates were up, but they promoted him anyways because his stats looked good based on an unsustainable BABIP.

Why? So they can promote him to MLB while eating the money owed to Markakis or Kemp? Why? To let that BABIP come crashing down at the MLB level, thus wasting a year of control in his prime for his production now? Are the Braves really going to make the same "Swanson mistake" with every single valuable prospect in the system?

Every single prospect guy has acknowledged the Braves are needlessly rushing Acuna right now. Once again, the Braves FO are the only ones incapable of seeing what everyone else already knows. It is becoming a disturbing trend.
 
Enscheff said:
I do not doubt Acuna is a premium prospect. I do not doubt he is likely to end up being the best player on the Braves by the time Freeman starts to decline. I think he slots in right behind Eloy and is neck and neck with Robles for the best young OF prospects in the game.

Right now, Albies is producing a .900+ OPS in AAA as a 20 year old after shaking off the rust from elbow surgery with a much more sustainable .351 BABIP, and plays above average defense at an up the middle position. He is undoubtedly the most valuable prospect in the system at this very moment.

My issue is with the Braves rushing Acuna for no apparent reason. His BB rates were down, and his K rates were up, but they promoted him anyways because his stats looked good based on an unsustainable BABIP.

Why? So they can promote him to MLB while eating the money owed to Markakis or Kemp? Why? To let that BABIP come crashing down at the MLB level, thus wasting a year of control in his prime for his production now?

Every single prospect guy has acknowledged the Braves are needlessly rushing Acuna right now. Once again, the Braves FO are the only ones incapable of seeing what everyone else already knows. It is becoming a disturbing trend.
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In some ways it was fortunate that Albies had some injuries/struggles. That has allowed him the time and repetitions he needed in the upper minors. I find myself rooting for Acuna to have a slump the rest of this year.
 
BABIP is not the same in the minors as it is in MLB. For example, Triple A has a BABIP average around .320-325 and it's not uncommon for future stars to have a .400 BABIP.
 
Garmel said:
BABIP is not the same in the minors as it is in MLB. For example, Triple A has a BABIP average around .320-325 and it's not uncommon for future stars to have a .400 BABIP.
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We aren't misunderstanding anything. Just because they happen doesn't make them any more sustainable. Inflated BABIP's happen all the time at the MLB level...and they aren't sustainable.

Here are the resultant 2014 OPS's of those players with unsustainable .400+ BABIP's in that season, with Acuna included for comparison:

Seager - .976
Turner - .828
Taylor - .915
Santana - .851
Bryant - 1.098
Acuna - .882

Notice how some guys with an unsustainable BABIP have insane OPS's, and some don't have quite so insane OPS's?

Now let's look at each player's career MLB OPS to date:

Seager - .894
Turner - .829
Taylor - .691
Santana - .807
Bryant - .906

Notice how the guys with super high OPS's when they had a super high BABIP are pretty much the same guys with currently really good MLB OPS's?

The truly elite hitters (Bryant and Seager) were posting a .950+ OPS with a BABIP over .400.

The good hitters posted lesser OPS's.

When Acuna's BABIP normalizes he will look a lot more like Santana or Turner than he will look like Bryant or Seager.

Rushing him is stupid. Period.
 
Enscheff said:
I do not doubt Acuna is a premium prospect. I do not doubt he is likely to end up being the best player on the Braves by the time Freeman starts to decline. I think he slots in right behind Eloy and is neck and neck with Robles for the best young OF prospects in the game.

Right now, Albies is producing a .900+ OPS in AAA as a 20 year old after shaking off the rust from elbow surgery with a much more sustainable .351 BABIP, and plays above average defense at an up the middle position. He is undoubtedly the most valuable prospect in the system at this very moment.

My issue is with the Braves rushing Acuna for no apparent reason. His BB rates were down, and his K rates were up, but they promoted him anyways because his stats looked good based on an unsustainable BABIP.

Why? So they can promote him to MLB while eating the money owed to Markakis or Kemp? Why? To let that BABIP come crashing down at the MLB level, thus wasting a year of control in his prime for his production now? Are the Braves really going to make the same "Swanson mistake" with every single valuable prospect in the system?

Every single prospect guy has acknowledged the Braves are needlessly rushing Acuna right now. Once again, the Braves FO are the only ones incapable of seeing what everyone else already knows. It is becoming a disturbing trend.
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I share your concerns, but let's see how they actually handle it from here.

That's all we can do. He's still got to perform at AAA to get promoted, I would imagine.
 
Why is everyone assuming they promoted Acuna because of his stats? I don't imagine the decision makers here are just looking at stat sheets and deciding what to do. I'm absolutely certain they have things they want Acuna to work on and development they want to see. It's likely they're basing far more on that than they are on his stats with his high babip.
 
striker42 said:
Why is everyone assuming they promoted Acuna because of his stats? I don't imagine the decision makers here are just looking at stat sheets and deciding what to do. I'm absolutely certain they have things they want Acuna to work on and development they want to see. It's likely they're basing far more on that than they are on his stats with his high babip.
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There is a tendency that some folks have to believe that the front office is completely oblivious to basic advanced statistics.

But the issue here is his being promoted and the fear this means he is being fast tracked to Atlanta.

It's a reasonable fear, but its a bit premature. We went through a long series of posts about how the front office was stupid for trading its prospects for Quintana and that turned out to be a bit overblown. Hopefully, this turns out well ok too.
 
Southcack77 said:
I share your concerns, but let's see how they actually handle it from here.

That's all we can do. He's still got to perform at AAA to get promoted, I would imagine.
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I agree that aggressive promotions to higher minor league levels is far less risky than promoting them to MLB too early.

Absolute worst case scenario is what happened with Profar. Guy gets hurt "seing what he has", and then sits on the DL accruing MLB service time while producing nothing.
 
I bet Coppy would agree that Swanson was promoted early but he'd say it was because the major league team had a need. As long as none of our current starting outfielders are injured or traded, then I think Acuna stays at TripleA. Same with Albies unless Phillips goes.
 
Eyeman said:
I bet Coppy would agree that Swanson was promoted early but he'd say it was because the major league team had a need. As long as none of our current starting outfielders are injured or traded, then I think Acuna stays at TripleA. Same with Albies unless Phillips goes.
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Coppy has publicly said it never occurred to him to promote Swanson last year. It was all the senior Johns have a senior moment.
 
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