8/13 GDT: Atlanta Braves (51-63) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (61-56)

I think it's clear the Braves badly miscalculated on Teheran. Sure his contract is relatively good. But, his trade value has cratered and about all they can do with him now is hope he rebounds in 2018, at least to the level of a reliable #4.

Folty will enter 2018 with about 2.2 years service time. So, he will be cheap again in 2018 and I think it's a good bet to hang on to him to see if the light does come on and he has the value of a reliable #2. Then you can decide to keep or trade him. But, in the right deal, I wouldn't be against moving him now. I think right now, about the best you can hope for him would to become a reliable #3.

Newcomb is a lefty and was rushed to the ML somewhat. While I don't see ACE or even TOR in him, he's a lefty, young, cheap and has some stuff. So, he's a reasonable #5 for 2018 with hope for better.

Given that Fried is working as a reliever right now, I would say no other SP that has pitched for the Braves in 2017 (Sims, Wisler, Blair) needs to be part of the 2018 rotation, including Dickey- reason being, you already have your 3, 4 & 5 covered and Dickey will be no better than any of that.

So, going into 2018 the Braves rotation looks to be: 1. Unknown 2. Unknown 3. Folty 4. Teheran 5. Newcomb

Even IF one or more of Soroka, Allard, Wright, Gohara, etc. show they are ready coming out of ST, you can't expect them to enter the game as your #1 or #2. So, if you go that way, you are forced to pretend that Folty and/or Teheran are going to be your go to #1 and 2.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Braves spend money on a Darvish or Arrieta. I wouldn't do that, but it wouldn't surprise me that they would.

All this assumes that the Braves will go all in to contend in 2018.

I think they would be better off signing about 3 upside guys who will be risky but likely won't cost as much. I like Alex Cobb, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Moore. You could probably get all three of those guys for what one year of Darvish will cost you and not have near the long term commitment.
 
TheBravos said:
Meh....Folty is definitely a big league pitcher (question if if he's an ace). Still have guys like Fried also. I think Newk and Folty are no doubt big league pitchers. I wouldn't say complete failure...more like not reaching expectations.
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If Folty and Newk can't be league average pitchers then I think that is a failure when we are expecting these young guys come u and help us win instead of just being "big league pitchers".
 
thethe said:
Can you really say Blair was a big acquisition. He was the third piece of a deal that was already an overpay without him. Wisler was a big fail.
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Blair at #60 isn't a big deal but Joey Wentz cracking the top 100 is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
 
msstate7 said:
Ender fWAR totals as a brave...

'16 = 3.6

'17 = 2.5

Hard to criticize the FO on the Shelby miller trade
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Indeed. It was a great trade. Still doesn't change the fact that the first wave of pitching prospects that we acquired in trades hasn't panned out at all. We don't have a single league average starter yet.
 
Enscheff said:
I would say the failure of any of these pitchers to become more than 1-2 win guys is THE problem with the rebuild. I really thought Folty would make big strides this year, but he is proving to be a "stuff #4" that everyone keeps dreaming on to be be much more.

If a team pours the majority of their player acquisition resources into acquiring pitchers, and none of them turn out to be better than 4/5 or AAAA guys, how can that team ever expect to contend?

During the rebuild, the Braves have seen the following Top 50-1000 prospects fail at the MLB level: Jenkins, Blair, Wisler, while guys like Newk and Folty are showing they likely won't have the control to succeed, and guys like Sims and Fried simply don't have the stuff to succeed. They have had zero pitching prospects shownthey are ready to be impactful SPs at the MLB level.

That's 0 for 7 by my count.

The failure rate of these pitchers has been so staggeringly bad the FO is considering moving elite positional talent to acquire proven SPs. That is a monumental failure no matter how someone tries to spin it.

They should have been building around position prospects and let other organizations deal with the attrition of pitching prospects.
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That's what is concerning. The whole point (according to the Johns themselves) in acquiring so many pitching prospects is so they wouldn't have to get proven SP either on the trade market or FA market. The rumors of them trading elite position player talent to get a cost controlled SP is really bad in that respect. Just shows they think what several on here think. Their first wave has sucked it up and there really is no denying that to this point.
 
thewupk said:
Indeed. It was a great trade. Still doesn't change the fact that the first wave of pitching prospects that we acquired in trades hasn't panned out at all. We don't have a single league average starter yet.
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I'll never understand why folks post counter points that aren't counter to the actual point being stated.
 
Enscheff said:
I'll never understand why folks post counter points that aren't counter to the actual point being stated.
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Maybe the fact we landed an MLB guy that's put up 6.1 WAR over first 2 seasons and a promising young SS shows Blair was essentially a throw in
 
msstate7 said:
Maybe the fact we landed an MLB guy that's put up 6.1 WAR over first 2 seasons and a promising young SS shows Blair was essentially a throw in
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OK... well when we trade Albies, Allard, and Gohara for Fullmer, we can all describe Gohara as a "throw-in"
 
thewupk said:
That's what is concerning. The whole point (according to the Johns themselves) in acquiring so many pitching prospects is so they wouldn't have to get proven SP either on the trade market or FA market. The rumors of them trading elite position player talent to get a cost controlled SP is really bad in that respect. Just shows they think what several on here think. Their first wave has sucked it up and there really is no denying that to this point.
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But wave one was always the least likely to succeed.
 
Blair was a legit prospect when he was acquired. Just because Ender proved to be better than we had hoped doesn't diminish the fact that something happened to Blair.

I still think there is some developmental issues with our coaches. Not a fan of Chuckie or Rodger personally. At this point I would just like to get someone who is decisive and maybe a bit stubborn.. like Leo was. I think a lot of these kids are just taught to keep going out there and try to pitch better. They don't build philosophies or routines..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Blair was a legit prospect when he was acquired. Just because Ender proved to be better than we had hoped doesn't diminish the fact that something happened to Blair.

I still think there is some developmental issues with our coaches. Not a fan of Chuckie or Rodger personally. At this point I would just like to get someone who is decisive and maybe a bit stubborn.. like Leo was. I think a lot of these kids are just taught to keep going out there and try to pitch better. They don't build philosophies or routines..
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Ender bWAR in '14 = 3.7

bWAR in '15 = 5.3

I think he was always the more sought after of the 2
 
Swanson was the prize of the trade. And he still has a chance to becoming the best player in that deal.
 
msstate7 said:
Ender bWAR in '14 = 3.7
bWAR in '15 = 5.3

I think he was always the more sought after of the 2
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No I understand.. I am saying, I think Ender has surprised everyone with his ability to be more than just a platoon player offensively. Like thusthus said. Dans was the prize. Ender was probably the next big get and Blair was a great prospect throw in. But that doesn't diminish his prospectian status upon his acquisition. Plus Blair was killing AA..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
No I understand.. I am saying, I think Ender has surprised everyone with his ability to be more than just a platoon player offensively. Like thusthus said. Dans was the prize. Ender was probably the next big get and Blair was a great prospect throw in. But that doesn't diminish his prospectian status upon his acquisition. Plus Blair was killing AA..
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Blair was talked about as being MLB ready and possibly able to produce equal to Miller the year he was acquired. Swanson was obviously the centerpiece. Ender was probably considered a 4th OFer by Stewart.

This revisionist history that "Blair wasn't a big deal" now that he has busted is...silly.

I bet we can do a quick search and find numerous posts of people drooling over a 2017 rotation that included Teheran, Folty, Wisler, and Blair. You know, those posts where folks list out these guys in an attempt to show off how impressive the collection of talent truly is.

I'm not sure how anyone can claim the first 2 waves of pitching prospects have been anything other than a complete bust.
 
Enscheff said:
Blair was talked about as being MLB ready and possibly able to produce equal to Miller the year he was acquired. Swanson was obviously the centerpiece. Ender was probably considered a 4th OFer by Stewart.

This revisionist history that "Blair wasn't a big deal" now that he has busted is...silly.

I bet we can do a quick search and find numerous posts of people drooling over a 2017 rotation that included Teheran, Folty, Wisler, and Blair. You know, those posts where folks list out these guys in an attempt to show off how impressive the collection of talent truly is.

I'm not sure how anyone can claim the first 2 waves of pitching prospects have been anything other than a complete bust.
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Okay... We all tend to get caught up in proving that we were right and someone else was wrong about any given player. Yeah, Blair has not turned out to be what we hoped. Agreed!!!

As has been mentioned, the Braves have young pitchers projected to come up in waves over the next few years. Most of them will likely turn out to be "nothing special." We have high hopes that a handful of them will turn out to be special.

Without looking anything up, I would guess that there might be 500 or more guys pitch in MLB in a given year. Some will be young guys who get a tryout of sorts and then disappear. Some will be AAAA guys who aren't expected to do much. Maybe 200 will be above average pitchers with effective careers. In our previous discussions we have more or less agreed that even top prospects bust at a high rate. (Potential and results are often not correlated as well as we might hope).

Those guys have to come from somewhere, so it is safe to assume that many effective pitchers come from nowhere without the hype and high expectations that top prospects carry.

In a nutshell... Some of these will pan out (probably not as many as we hope), some will move to less prominent roles, some will become journeymen with undistinguished careers, and many will just fade away.

The Braves have taken the approach that a huge number of highly thought of prospects is a good approach to get a few high quality pitchers at affordable prices. Other teams may decide to let someone else develop pitchers then trade for or sign the best. (more costly for each one, but less speculative).

Which is the more efficient model? We all have our opinions, and mine does not depend on proving you wrong if you disagree.

I love the discussion and information I get here... but I wish we could all stop worrying so much about proving the other guys wrong.
 
Acting like Blair was a throw in is the definition "pozzi-brave" revisionist history.

I for one, was ecstatic we got Blair. He was a highly regarded pitching prospect. He was in no sense of the word a "throw in."

Well, he looks to be a bust. Just like Wisler - who was the headliner for Kimbrel.
 
msstate7 said:
Blair MiLB -- 541.2 ip 485 k
Gohara MiLB -- 314.1 ip 353 k

Gohara is 21 in AAA. Blair was in A ball at 21
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They are similarly ranked pitchers on prospect lists. Not to say Gohara will be a bust, but Blair was very highly thought of at the time of the trade
 
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