Around MLB 2017

Southcack77 said:
His contract is probably the worst in baseball and the marlins cant really afford him next year much less when he's owed 30 million.

The marlins will have to eat dollars to move him or catch a giant market team on the right day --

And the thing is-- this is probably the most value under this contract that he will ever have.
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His contract is until he's 38, i think he'll age ok by then.

And he can opt out in 3-4 years.

I agree i doubt he'd be able to be had for free or else someone would have him by now.
 
Heyward said:
His contract is until he's 38, i think he'll age ok by then.

And he can opt out in 3-4 years.

I agree i doubt he'd be able to be had for free or else someone would have him by now.
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There are only a few teams in baseball that could credibly afford his contract. The Marlins are not and never were one of those teams which made their signing him to the deal so particularly bizarre.

the Marlins are looking at cutting their max payroll significant beginning next season which means he will take up an ever growing percentage of their payroll.

At age 27, he has played 150 games one time, when he played exactly 150 games. He's hit more than 40 home runs one time, which is this season. Generally speaking he has struck out nearly 30% of the time and has several seasons where he he hasn't hit better than .260. He has a ton of power, he gets walked so that isn't all bad.

but best as I can tell in his youth and early prime he has been a pretty average at best defender.

At this point it is easy to say that the guy is hitting 50+ HRs and he will obviously opt out of his contract. But this is by far the best season of his career and it is perhaps not particularly likely this will be the new norm.

So he might not be having an incredible season when he has to decide to opt out of $200 million guaranteed dollars through his age 38 season.

I have no doubt that the Marlins would like to get something back for him, but the fact that he cleared waivers and hasn't been moved when the Marlins clearly need to move him suggests that his contract is a huge drag on his value.

This would be a bad move for the Braves or any team without tremendous payroll flexibility to make in my opinion.

There is very little question, I think, that if Stanton does not opt out that the contract will turn out extremely poorly for whoever is stuck with it. If a team wants to bet the farm on someone options out of the deal then they stand to gain something. It's a breakout season at 27 which is almost cliche, but I wouldn't necessarily trust it as repeatable.
 
I think Stanton will average 5-6 wins over the next three years (his ages 28-30 season). At which point, he is likely to opt out. He current contract calls for him to be paid a total of 220M for his ages 31-37 seasons, assuming the 2028 option is not picked up. By the 2020 offseason the market price of a win is going to be about 10M. After 2020, he will probably be projected to average about 3 wins per year for his ages 31-37 seasons. Which means he would be able to get 300M on the market for those seasons. So it will make sense for him to opt out of a deal that guarantees him 220M over that period.

His projected surplus value for his ages 28-30 seasons (assuming 5.5 wins per year) is about 7 wins. He is being paid for about 3 wins per year in that period. Against that is the risk of something "bad" happening to make him not opt out. That is a risk an acquiring team has to weigh. But I don't think that risk comes close to wiping out the projected surplus value for the next three years.

If he gets traded this off-season, I doubt very much the Marlins will have to absorb any salary. If they trade for prospects, my guess is the prospects will have a valuation in the 5-7 projected WAR range. Or the equivalent of a prospect ranked in the 20-30 range on the prospects lists.
 
Guys if someone was willing to take on the contract he would have been claimed. There is no risk to claiming someone except that the team will literally hand him to you... Nobody was willing to take that risk
 
sturg33 said:
Guys if someone was willing to take on the contract he would have been claimed. There is no risk to claiming someone except that the team will literally hand him to you... Nobody was willing to take that risk
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Actually there are other possibilities. Teams may preferred to wait until the off-season when they can open up room in their budgets to take on his contract.

I predict one of two things will happen with Stanton:

1) The Marlins trade him without having to pay any of his salary.

2) He plays with the Marlins through 2020 and then opts out.

I think the new ownership will be happy to see scenario 2 come to pass. I suspect they will trade one of their other outfielders (most likely Ozuna) rather than Stanton.

Keep in mind that the team's sales price will have incorporated projections for some fairly significant losses in the next few years. That's baked into the price. The new ownership is not going to be under the gun to cut costs drastically.
 
nsacpi said:
Actually there are other possibilities. Teams may preferred to wait until the off-season when they can open up room in their budgets to take on his contract.

I predict one of two things will happen with Stanton:

1) The Marlins trade him without having to pay any of his salary.

2) He plays with the Marlins through 2020 and then opts out.

I think the new ownership will be happy to see scenario 2 come to pass. I suspect they will trade one of their other outfielders (most likely Ozuna) rather than Stanton.

Keep in mind that the team's sales price will have incorporated projections for some fairly significant losses in the next few years. That's baked into the price. The new ownership is not going to be under the gun to cut costs drastically.
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But someone could have claimed him and not traded for him. The risk was the Marlins letting him go for free. Nobody in all baseball was willing to take the chance that they would do that
 
sturg33 said:
Guys if someone was willing to take on the contract he would have been claimed. There is no risk to claiming someone except that the team will literally hand him to you... Nobody was willing to take that risk
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That isn't necessarily true. Teams do have yearly budgets you know. And Stanton would put several teams over the luxury tax.
 
Carp said:
That isn't necessarily true. Teams do have yearly budgets you know. And Stanton would put several teams over the luxury tax.
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That is still not refuting my point... that the Marlins likely would let anyone have him for free if they claimed him, which is why nobody did
 
sturg33 said:
That is still not refuting my point... that the Marlins likely would let anyone have him for free if they claimed him, which is why nobody did
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No. The Marlins passed him through waivers so they could trade him. Every other team knew the Marlins absolutely would not let him go for free, which is why none bothered to claim him. It would be a waste, as the Marlins would have definitely pulled him back.
 
smootness said:
No. The Marlins passed him through waivers so they could trade him. Every other team knew the Marlins absolutely would not let him go for free, which is why none bothered to claim him. It would be a waste, as the Marlins would have definitely pulled him back.
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This could be true. Some other guys that will never be traded clear waivers for exactly that reason. I think Harper cleared, for example.

Stanton is probably going to be the most interesting trade scenario that I can remember happening. The Marlins must trade him in the not so distant future. He is a singular talent. He has been very injury prone from day 1. He likely has very little (if any) surplus value when the opt-out is taken into account.

Yet despite that lack of value, someone is going to have to overpay in prospects and cash for the right to have arguably the premier power hitter in the game. It will be fascinating to see how it shakes out.
 
Enscheff said:
This could be true. Some other guys that will never be traded clear waivers for exactly that reason. I think Harper cleared, for example.

Stanton is probably going to be the most interesting trade scenario that I can remember happening. The Marlins must trade him in the not so distant future. He is a singular talent. He has been very injury prone from day 1. He likely has very little (if any) surplus value when the opt-out is taken into account.

Yet despite that lack of value, someone is going to have to overpay in prospects and cash for the right to have arguably the premier power hitter in the game. It will be fascinating to see how it shakes out.
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Correct. What he is worth vs. what a team will have to pay to get him are not the same thing.
 
Mike Trout has played 40 less games than Judge and Altuve and is within a 0.5 WAR of both of them. Somehow if the Angels can make the wild card game I'd say he deserves the MVP. Going to be the GOAT.
 
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