Heyman - Braves expected to shop veteran outfielders

This is going to be a lot like me tying to get rid of my old lawn mower when I bought a new wunder-Honda.

Markakis is my usable old lawnmower I had to give away to (and transport for) a guy who wanted to use it to chop down brush behind his property.

Kemp is the broken down riding lawnmower on my in-law's ranch that we will have to pay money to have hauled away.
 
Enscheff said:
This is going to be a lot like me tying to get rid of my old lawn mower when I bought a new wunder-Honda.

Markakis is my usable old lawnmower I had to give away to (and transport for) a guy who wanted to use it to chop down brush behind his property.

Kemp is the broken down riding lawnmower on my in-law's ranch that we will have to pay money to have hauled away.
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Perfect analogy

What surprises me is this presented as news. I assumed they have always been to the trade block.

I'm sure that there are several teams calling the johns about the dynamic duo since this news broke
 
Enscheff said:
This is going to be a lot like me tying to get rid of my old lawn mower when I bought a new wunder-Honda.

Markakis is my usable old lawnmower I had to give away to (and transport for) a guy who wanted to use it to chop down brush behind his property.

Kemp is the broken down riding lawnmower on my in-law's ranch that we will have to pay money to have hauled away.
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They will get little for Markakis, but I can see them moving all of that contract to the right team. Markakis could be useful to someone in the right situation. We probably get less for Kemp and what we get will depend on how much of the contract we will continue to pick up.
 
I could see us trading them both, putting Acuna in RF and looking at a guy like Justin Upton or JD Martinez for LF. I'm thinking there's going to be a much bigger shakeup than probably everyone on this board. I cannot see this FO sitting on their hands this offseason and seeing what happens organically.

Markakis is not a hard trade. I don't think we'll get much back than a lottery ticket, but he's a servicable player and good clubhouse guy.

Kempo is going to be harder. I highly doubt we eat money the old fashion way. We'll take back another contract or tie some low level prospects or extra pen arms to him...or a combination of both.
 
I think folks are severely underestimating how much negative value Kemp carries.

The Braves will have to assume so much salary and/or include so much prospect capital to move him they may as well just drop him.

This is not a Touki for Arroyo situation.
 
given what we owe on their contracts expected surplus value is about negative 30 mil for Kemp and negative 3 mil for Muk
 
nsacpi said:
given what we owe on their contracts expected surplus value is about negative 30 mil for Kemp and negative 3 mil for Muk
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Agreed.

We have seen what no-glove sluggers have signed for lately...about $10M total on 1 a year deal. Kemp is owed almost $40M. The math is easy.

I'm convinced Kemp can be productive if managed like a catcher and subbed for defensively at the end of games.

Markakis can hold down a spot for another year. Maybe dump him at the deadline for a nothing return.

Might as well keep both. There's no reason Acuna can't compile a few hundred more AAA PAs other than the FO trying to rush the competitive window and save their jobs.
 
50PoundHead said:
They will get little for Markakis, but I can see them moving all of that contract to the right team. Markakis could be useful to someone in the right situation. We probably get less for Kemp and what we get will depend on how much of the contract we will continue to pick up.
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Markakis could be useful to the Braves. He really doesn't have to be moved though the lineup looks a little weird keeping him and getting rid of Kemp.
 
I think we'll see alot of moves this winter bc no way does the FO let the team suck for a 2nd straight year in the new stadium.
 
Enscheff said:
Agreed.

We have seen what no-glove sluggers have signed for lately...about $10M total on 1 a year deal. Kemp is owed almost $40M. The math is easy.

I'm convinced Kemp can be productive if managed like a catcher and subbed for defensively at the end of games.

Markakis can hold down a spot for another year. Maybe dump him at the deadline for a nothing return.

Might as well keep both. There's no reason Acuna can't compile a few hundred more AAA PAs other than the FO trying to rush the competitive window and save their jobs.
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Figure the Dodgers money goes wherever, so you are talking about 18 million for 2018 and 2019. If the Braves could get away with throwing in $8 million for each season, I believe they would come out ahead of what they owed Oliveira or pretty close. They should jump on that. That is the scenario that I would be looking at the hardest, but it may be the one that is more difficult for the front office to weather politically. Paying to get rid of the cleanup hitter they acquired does look bad, even if the net result was a year and a half of decent offense and the elimination of the 2020 obligation to Oliveira. It would be a net win though in my book if they could do it.

They probably have to throw in more than that though, but I think I might give Kemp 20 million over 2 years to DH / play a little LF. Maybe.
 
Kemp is garbage, and we aren't going to be able to give him away. Might as well cut him and eat all the money.

I think he's fatter now than he was at any point last year.
 
Sadly we likely won't be able to move any of our OF but Inciarte for any real return. But I think if we can get a bag of balls and some salary relief we should jump on it. Markakis and Kemp likely hold value to someone who needs a piece and doesn't have a ton of money or want to trade a valuable prospect or young player. We could probably trade one of them and half their salary and get a fringe prospect back or a solid reliever.

That being said, I'm not optimistic, the time to trade Markakis was after his first season and we never should have made the Olivera trade so we never should have gotten in a place to have Kemp on this team. We're now stuck in this bad situation where Kemp and Markakis are old and have no value.
 
zitothebrave said:
Sadly we likely won't be able to move any of our OF but Inciarte for any real return. But I think if we can get a bag of balls and some salary relief we should jump on it. Markakis and Kemp likely hold value to someone who needs a piece and doesn't have a ton of money or want to trade a valuable prospect or young player. We could probably trade one of them and half their salary and get a fringe prospect back or a solid reliever.

That being said, I'm not optimistic, the time to trade Markakis was after his first season and we never should have made the Olivera trade so we never should have gotten in a place to have Kemp on this team. We're now stuck in this bad situation where Kemp and Markakis are old and have no value.
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If the Braves had never traded for Oliveira they very well may still have agreed to let the Padres pay them some money to take on Kemp.

I really don't think those trades have a whole lot of cause and effect besides Oliveira not being able to fill a roster spot and that contributing to the Braves needing to find some pop to add to a lineup that was trapped in a wet paper bag and couldn't get out.
 
Southcack77 said:
If the Braves had never traded for Oliveira they very well may still have agreed to let the Padres pay them some money to take on Kemp.

I really don't think those trades have a whole lot of cause and effect besides Oliveira not being able to fill a roster spot and that contributing to the Braves needing to find some pop to add to a lineup that was trapped in a wet paper bag and couldn't get out.
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The Kemp trade was done to get rid of Olivera cash. You may be right as we may have traded a different low value asset like Markakis, but we'd still be better off.
 
Here are the deals signed last offseason by no-glove guys who could only play DH, 1B or a poor LF:

Edwin Encarnacion 3/60
Kendry Morales 3/33
Carlos Beltran 1/16
Matt Holliday 1/13
Brandon Moss 2/12
Khris Davis 1yr/$5M
Eric Thames 3/16
Mike Napoli 1/8.5
Lucas Duda 1/7
Yonder Alonso 1/4
Logan Morrison 1/2.5

So which guy is Kemp most like?

EE averaged 4 fWAR per season for the 3 years before his deal. Nope.
Morales was signed early for no good reason, and has already been a disaster. No team is going to be looking to replicate that deal.
Beltran averaged 2 fWAR the 2 seasons before his deal. He was also much better than Kemp is now.
Holliday was a 0.5-1 fWAR guy the 2 seasons before his deal, and his career worst wRC+ was still better than Kemp's last 2 years.
Brandon Moss is a worse hitter than Kemp. This is probably Kemp's floor if he were a FA this offseason.
Napoli is a pretty good comp for Kemp.

I would peg Kemp's FA value this offseason right around Moss' 2/12 and Napoli's 1/8.5, maybe a bit higher with Holliday's deal as the cap. I'll say 1/10 or 2/15.

No team other than the Braves would willingly pay Kemp 2/20, much less 2/40.
 
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