Heyman - Braves expected to shop veteran outfielders

Enscheff said:
Agreed.

We have seen what no-glove sluggers have signed for lately...about $10M total on 1 a year deal. Kemp is owed almost $40M. The math is easy.

I'm convinced Kemp can be productive if managed like a catcher and subbed for defensively at the end of games.

Markakis can hold down a spot for another year. Maybe dump him at the deadline for a nothing return.

Might as well keep both. There's no reason Acuna can't compile a few hundred more AAA PAs other than the FO trying to rush the competitive window and save their jobs.
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why not hold acuna out until 2020? get through both of these contracts and knowing the pitching will be horrible, there's no way this club is competing next year or probably the next. so why waste his time? i'm dead serious here. if folks are up in arms about saving service time, there's no difference in waiting two more years by that logic.
 
chipchildress said:
why not hold acuna out until 2020? get through both of these contracts and knowing the pitching will be horrible, there's no way this club is competing next year or probably the next. so why waste his time? i'm dead serious here. if folks are up in arms about saving service time, there's no difference in waiting two more years by that logic.
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thou hast committed a fallacy of composition
 
Super said:
I feel like Ender's fWAR isn't reflecting elite defender
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He's had a poor arm rating this year for whatever reason. He is -7 runs from a year in arm rating in DRS and -11 runs from a year ago in UZR. Considering he's been very good there in years past I will say that is just a fluke and likely single season sample size issues that can happen with defense. The above numbers that have him #2 this year are solely based balls either caught or not caught which to me is the most important aspect of outfield defense.
 
thewupk said:
He's had a poor arm rating this year for whatever reason. He is -7 runs from a year in arm rating in DRS and -11 runs from a year ago in UZR. Considering he's been very good there in years past I will say that is just a fluke and likely single season sample size issues that can happen with defense. The above numbers that have him #2 this year are solely based balls either caught or not caught which to me is the most important aspect of outfield defense.
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So would his fWAR be understated, then? He may not even reach 3 but with his offense and usual elite defense, I'd think he'd be there easily.
 
thewupk said:
He's had a poor arm rating this year for whatever reason. He is -7 runs from a year in arm rating in DRS and -11 runs from a year ago in UZR. Considering he's been very good there in years past I will say that is just a fluke and likely single season sample size issues that can happen with defense. The above numbers that have him #2 this year are solely based balls either caught or not caught which to me is the most important aspect of outfield defense.
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Arm rating is probably due to Flowers' behind the plate receiving skills.
 
Super said:
So would his fWAR be understated, then? He may not even reach 3 but with his offense and usual elite defense, I'd think he'd be there easily.
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I wouldn't say understated. It is a reflection of what has actually happened this year. But even if he doesn't reach 3 WAR this year I would expect him to be a high 3 WAR player next season.
 
With respect to Kemp and Markakis, I hope the Braves realize that time is actually on their side in this situation and avoid acting out of a sense of urgency. With someone like Freeman, time is not on your side because you are squandering his prime years on a team friendly contract while going through losing seasons. With a contract that carries negative expected surplus value, time works the other way. By mid-season, the amount of money we will have to eat in a deal involving Kemp or Markakis will be less. The best case scenario is that one of them gets hot in the first half of 2018 and we are able to cut our losses.

Although the front office does not appear to give much if any weight to service time considerations, I am hoping we hold on to Kemp and Markakis this off-season and that this will result in Acuna being sent down for a few weeks.

Finally, my mantra with respect to all trades is I want to win the trade. This applies to trades involving players whose contracts are under water. If some team is willing to overpay (in the sense of asking us to cover less of the contract than would be justified) we do the deal whenever the opportunity presents itself.
 
nsacpi said:
With respect to Kemp and Markakis, I hope the Braves realize that time is actually on their side in this situation and avoid acting out of a sense of urgency. With someone like Freeman, time is not on your side because you are squandering his prime years on a team friendly contract while going through losing seasons. With a contract that carries negative expected surplus value, time works the other way. By mid-season, the amount of money we will have to eat in a deal involving Kemp or Markakis will be less. The best case scenario is that one of them gets hot in the first half of 2018 and we are able to cut our losses.

Although the front office does not appear to give much if any weight to service time considerations, I am hoping we hold on to Kemp and Markakis this off-season and that this will result in Acuna being sent down for a few weeks.

Finally, my mantra with respect to all trades is I want to win the trade. This applies to trades involving players whose contracts are under water. If some team is willing to overpay (in the sense of asking us to cover less of the contract than would be justified) we do the deal whenever the opportunity presents itself.
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You said "weight" and "eat" in a post about Kemp. Heh, heh
 
Kemp is pretty impossible to move.

I could see us trade Markakis for nothing if a team would eat his contract.

Only 1 yr, 12 mil which isnt bad in todays market spending.
 
Heyward said:
Kemp is pretty impossible to move.

I could see us trade Markakis for nothing if a team would eat his contract.

Only 1 yr, 12 mil which isnt bad in todays market spending.
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It's all a matter of making his salary something another team would be ok with taking on.

Absent a serious offseason coming up there is no real sense in moving Markakis. He's really fine and he'll be gone before his money matters unless you think they are going all in this offseason, which I doubt they will do. If they do, then he's likely to be given away, I agree. Otherwise, no reason to.

They have every incentive to leave Acuna down and retaining Kemp and Markakis is a nice firebreak for the pressure to bring him up.

If they had to move one, the org would be better off doing what it took to get rid of Kemp, IMO.
 
chipchildress said:
why not hold acuna out until 2020? get through both of these contracts and knowing the pitching will be horrible, there's no way this club is competing next year or probably the next. so why waste his time? i'm dead serious here. if folks are up in arms about saving service time, there's no difference in waiting two more years by that logic.
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Yeah, they're going to suck for at least the next 3 years. Unless the FO wises up and first consults the think tank here, they might have a chance by 2025.
 
Southcack77 said:
It's all a matter of making his salary something another team would be ok with taking on.

Absent a serious offseason coming up there is no real sense in moving Markakis. He's really fine and he'll be gone before his money matters unless you think they are going all in this offseason, which I doubt they will do. If they do, then he's likely to be given away, I agree. Otherwise, no reason to.

They have every incentive to leave Acuna down and retaining Kemp and Markakis is a nice firebreak for the pressure to bring him up.

If they had to move one, the org would be better off doing what it took to get rid of Kemp, IMO.
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One thing to think about is we'd owe HO 3 years and 22.5M and now we owe 2 years and around 38. So would the FO look at it as they need the balance to break ties and move on. You pay your 22.5 in a 2 year span if the opposing team is willing to pay 2/16. I've yet to see them carry dead weight on the books, but I'm thinking they may be willing to. There doesn't seem like many obvious trade partners of bad contracts in the AL.
 
Chico said:
One thing to think about is we'd owe HO 3 years and 22.5M and now we owe 2 years and around 38. So would the FO look at it as they need the balance to break ties and move on. You pay your 22.5 in a 2 year span if the opposing team is willing to pay 2/16. I've yet to see them carry dead weight on the books, but I'm thinking they may be willing to. There doesn't seem like many obvious trade partners of bad contracts in the AL.
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They've eaten a few contracts in the recent past but I agree with you more or less on evaluating the financials of the Kemp transaction.
 
Southcack77 said:
They've eaten a few contracts in the recent past but I agree with you more or less on evaluating the financials of the Kemp transaction.
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Yeah. I was referring more towards this regime trading bad contracts.

Looking at contracts for teams who need a DH there are slim pickings. Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Russell Martin, Tulowitzki, and Ellsbury all make some degree of sense, but don't see any of those for various reasons.
 
Ian Kennedy makes the most sense. Especially if we don't pick up Dickey's option. Contracts are close to a wash and each team rids themselves of an unwanted contract, while also getting back something they need (a reliable innings eater for Atl and a legit power hitter for KC). We might have to add a throw in to facilitate the trade. May be a Sims or Wisler type to give them a starting option to replace Kennedy.
 
Chico said:
Yeah. I was referring more towards this regime trading bad contracts.

Looking at contracts for teams who need a DH there are slim pickings. Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Russell Martin, Tulowitzki, and Ellsbury all make some degree of sense, but don't see any of those for various reasons.
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Kemp for Russell Martin makes some sense. I think though we would have to kick in some additional value.
 
nsacpi said:
Kemp for Russell Martin makes some sense. I think though we would have to kick in some additional value.
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Yeah that would be my preference as well, and agreed that we would have to kick in some additional value. There's conflicting reports as if they're looking to rebuild or not. I don't know how Minasian left, so I'm not sure if it's a good thing or bad thing to have him in talks with the Jays, but I'm sure he'll knows their plans.

They have Jansen who should be ready next year, Pentecost in 19 if they keep him at catcher and two more kids they just drafted 20 and 21, so I'd say they are deep at catcher.
 
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