Doesn't need to be said. The way it's playing out is saying it for me.
Revenue is down. Team has no payroll to make additions. Coppy was sacrificed as a scapegoat.
Should be crystal clear, even though it's not for some people.
Hart on Payroll/Off-Season Plans
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Doesn't need to be said. The way it's playing out is saying it for me.
Revenue is down. Team has no payroll to make additions. Coppy was sacrificed as a scapegoat.
Should be crystal clear, even though it's not for some people.
One of 2 things happens next:
1. The current FO sacrifices a lot of future assets to push for ~85 wins next year because that's the only way to improve the club with no payroll space.
2. We hear a lot more stuff about how terrible Coppy was. He was so bad the new GM will need 2-3 years to fix everything.
Let's hope for #2.
1. The current FO sacrifices a lot of future assets to push for ~85 wins next year because that's the only way to improve the club with no payroll space.
2. We hear a lot more stuff about how terrible Coppy was. He was so bad the new GM will need 2-3 years to fix everything.
Let's hope for #2.
I'd be dissapointed if ownership decided the forecast for 2018 is not high enough to spend money. Then again, I'm in advertising and I hear the people who say they're not spending money on advertising because sales are down. It's a shortsighted way to view things. You advertise when you need sales.
I'd think payroll would be the same as last year. I'm sure there has been some money spent on the park and the battery, and it'll take a few years to recoup the investment. However, with everything that has happened recently if they keep Snitker and do not try and improve the club (even if it's short term commitments that are made to appease the casual fan) then they're going to lose a lot of the fickle Atlanta fan base.
I don't see any big names guys like JD or Darvish, but I'd expect to see them make a concerted effort to improve the club if they want this move to work.
Southcack77
Well-known member
If you are in the camp that doesn't see 2018 as a breakout year and don't want the front office to make panicky moves to try and win now, this interview was somewhat reassuring.
No evidence at all that Hart feels pressure to win.
The front office not being willing to eat contract on Kemp is odd and maybe said for Negotiation. That's actually a money saver for a club that sees him as less productive than Markakis.
This is more of an acknowledgement that they aren't going to overpay for Moustakkas or top end pitcher and probably won't part with assets necessary to trade for one
No evidence at all that Hart feels pressure to win.
The front office not being willing to eat contract on Kemp is odd and maybe said for Negotiation. That's actually a money saver for a club that sees him as less productive than Markakis.
This is more of an acknowledgement that they aren't going to overpay for Moustakkas or top end pitcher and probably won't part with assets necessary to trade for one
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Those are my favorite hart comments in a long time.
Imo that is exactly what we should do. Let the young guys play. See if comargo and or Ruiz is a thing at 3b. Look to move the old corner guys but saving a couple million does little. The money is spent so if u have an expensive and bad lf/pinch hitter platoon ok.
We have pitchers. Don't pay money for someone unless it's a great deal and minimal commitment in years.
After next year you should know a lot more about newk, gohara, Swanson, Albies, Acuna etc. neck money is gone. Kemp on his final yr. may know enough about pitching plus allard, soroka and wright to move Tehran if he has a good yr.
We can be fun to watch and win 75 games like that. Maybe push for 500 if the division stinks and or some young guys really turn it on.
Imo that is exactly what we should do. Let the young guys play. See if comargo and or Ruiz is a thing at 3b. Look to move the old corner guys but saving a couple million does little. The money is spent so if u have an expensive and bad lf/pinch hitter platoon ok.
We have pitchers. Don't pay money for someone unless it's a great deal and minimal commitment in years.
After next year you should know a lot more about newk, gohara, Swanson, Albies, Acuna etc. neck money is gone. Kemp on his final yr. may know enough about pitching plus allard, soroka and wright to move Tehran if he has a good yr.
We can be fun to watch and win 75 games like that. Maybe push for 500 if the division stinks and or some young guys really turn it on.
Millwood1Hitter
Anytime Now Frankie...
I love John Hart, I mean who else can seemingly double speak so much with looking so smart. So much win in these quotes
We don't have any flexibility but we're very flexible
We pushed the kids who we like but we don't like where they are at
We are who we are, we don't like where we're at but we're in a good position
We can spend money but we won't and don't have to spend money
JS is my best friend in baseball but my hated enemy in life
Listen, we could win 95 games next year but we will more likely win 78
Despite his success, we still aren't sold that Albies can hit at this level although he's proven he can
Coppy was great but he had his weaknesses
We don't have any flexibility but we're very flexible
We pushed the kids who we like but we don't like where they are at
We are who we are, we don't like where we're at but we're in a good position
We can spend money but we won't and don't have to spend money
JS is my best friend in baseball but my hated enemy in life
Listen, we could win 95 games next year but we will more likely win 78
Despite his success, we still aren't sold that Albies can hit at this level although he's proven he can
Coppy was great but he had his weaknesses
dak
Well-known member
Completely agree. I think the optimistic way to view Hart's cryptic quotes in the article is that he is preparing the fan base for modest free agency targets because it's a sound valuation strategy. The pessimistic view is that we're not doing so because the coffers are light. Either way, I'd be happy to slow play it and bottom-feed if necessary. I don't care so much about minimizing 2018 expenditures . . . it's more about minimizing long-term risk and avoiding big mistakes.
Just tweaking my salary spreadsheet and wondered what everyone else has.
I exercised the options for Flowers and Dickey, took a stab in the dark and bumped Arodys to $3 million to be safe, and bumped a select few above the $550,000 I'm using for renewals -
Albies - $560,000
Dansby - $570,000
Folty - $570,000
Ramirez - $560,000
Freeman - $560,000
Lindgren - $625,000
That would put us at $98,795,000 with the only player unaccounted as Matt Adams. That's (more-or-less) right in line with where we were on Opening Day in 2015 ($97 million and change). That kinda has to lead us to believe one of two things...
1.) The doom-and-gloom crowd is right and they really whiffed on projected revenues, or...
2.) Hart's full of *hit and there's plenty of money there.
Assuming Adams gets a bump to around $6 million, we're still starting the season with a $17 million lower payroll than last season if Dickey doesn't walk away. If R. A. does call it quits, the money should be there to add at least Frazier for around $12 million per and BOTH Kintzler and McGee even if you have to go to the $6 million range for each without exceeding last year's Opening Day payroll. Even if ticket sales this year were a bit lower than projected, the Battery - especially the real estate (townhomes, apartments, etc.) - was roughly only 50% complete, and the cash flow should explode when the residences are sold.
If Hart's cryptic comments mean anything (IMO), it's that they simply haven't decided what they might pursue at this point. Dickey walking away and a trade of ANY of Kemp/Markakis/Adams would likely put them in position to do as they choose this winter. The back-and-forths here this winter about what they should or shouldn't do are going to be fun, but it sure doesn't look like what they can or can't do needs to be part of them.
I exercised the options for Flowers and Dickey, took a stab in the dark and bumped Arodys to $3 million to be safe, and bumped a select few above the $550,000 I'm using for renewals -
Albies - $560,000
Dansby - $570,000
Folty - $570,000
Ramirez - $560,000
Freeman - $560,000
Lindgren - $625,000
That would put us at $98,795,000 with the only player unaccounted as Matt Adams. That's (more-or-less) right in line with where we were on Opening Day in 2015 ($97 million and change). That kinda has to lead us to believe one of two things...
1.) The doom-and-gloom crowd is right and they really whiffed on projected revenues, or...
2.) Hart's full of *hit and there's plenty of money there.
Assuming Adams gets a bump to around $6 million, we're still starting the season with a $17 million lower payroll than last season if Dickey doesn't walk away. If R. A. does call it quits, the money should be there to add at least Frazier for around $12 million per and BOTH Kintzler and McGee even if you have to go to the $6 million range for each without exceeding last year's Opening Day payroll. Even if ticket sales this year were a bit lower than projected, the Battery - especially the real estate (townhomes, apartments, etc.) - was roughly only 50% complete, and the cash flow should explode when the residences are sold.
If Hart's cryptic comments mean anything (IMO), it's that they simply haven't decided what they might pursue at this point. Dickey walking away and a trade of ANY of Kemp/Markakis/Adams would likely put them in position to do as they choose this winter. The back-and-forths here this winter about what they should or shouldn't do are going to be fun, but it sure doesn't look like what they can or can't do needs to be part of them.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think he mentioned he wasn't necessarily talking about payroll constraints beyond what they've said for awhile--they can't play at top of market.
he has roster constraints and some artificial organizational constraints if they won't eat salary to save money and roster spot.
Paying a team something to take Kemp would net them payroll. Or if they were broke it would save them money.
They are posturing that they are not willing to do that.
he has roster constraints and some artificial organizational constraints if they won't eat salary to save money and roster spot.
Paying a team something to take Kemp would net them payroll. Or if they were broke it would save them money.
They are posturing that they are not willing to do that.
Southcack77
Well-known member
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/remaining-trade-asset-nicholas-castellanos.html
Nick Castellanos? Have to be a very small price I'd think.
Nick Castellanos? Have to be a very small price I'd think.
He is available for a reason. "Seeing what they have with Camargo" is a far superior option.
I mentioned Castellanos earlier - not sure I'd give up much, but he'd obviously be a decent fit (IMO) if they have to pinch pennies. He'd seem to make lots of sense if you could add him and spend the available money on Cobb and a reliever or two rather than paying a premium for Frazier or Moose.
Just not sold enough on Camargo/Ruiz to believe they can be solid enough at 3B if you're amazingly lucky enough to unload Kemp - just me, but if we had Castellanos' pop at 3B, I'd think keeping Markakis' OBP and having an OF of Inciarte/Acuna/Markakis would be a step up from Ender/Kemp/Markakis. Would also put you in a much better position to play on Blackmon when the monster class comes if you so chose.
A monster pipe-dream (obviously), but if Riley somehow works out I'd love to see what a Blackmon/Ender/Acuna OF could do.
Didn't like what the earlier report said about his 3B defense. Is there something else that provides hope that his Defense would be serviceable?
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
How Charlie Blackmon when probably Colorado is not going to trade and he is 31 years old by the time he becomes free agent will be almost 33. We need to stop throwing money away. We need to develop our own players and look to get players with playoff experience. Example: Craig Kimbrel one of best closers if not the best. This offseason we should look for a Brian Shaw with 29 years or Addison Redd with 28 years.
Virtually every metric has him as bad at 3rd as Kemp is bad in left. Whatever advantage Nick would give you over Camargo offensively is likely given up on the defensive side of the ball. Nick is entering his 2nd yea or arby where Camargo is still at league minimum for 3 years. Braves should either target a legit solution or leave it be for now.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
For third, I'd target Eduardo Nunez at 8M/year or less. 2 years with an option.
If the Mets do not pick up the option on Asdrubal Cabrera, he'd be my plan B on a similar contract.
There are some possible alternative Plan B's. On a one year deal (6M or less) I'd consider Luis Valbuena if the Angels do not pick up his option. Yangervis Solarte is someone I would have interest in on the trade market.
I wouldn't rule out Castellanos, but for various reasons (defense, contracts, righty-lefty balance) I think the above players make more sense. If you can get a good deal with a free agent, that's better than a trade for players of that caliber.
If the Mets do not pick up the option on Asdrubal Cabrera, he'd be my plan B on a similar contract.
There are some possible alternative Plan B's. On a one year deal (6M or less) I'd consider Luis Valbuena if the Angels do not pick up his option. Yangervis Solarte is someone I would have interest in on the trade market.
I wouldn't rule out Castellanos, but for various reasons (defense, contracts, righty-lefty balance) I think the above players make more sense. If you can get a good deal with a free agent, that's better than a trade for players of that caliber.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Here's my take on 2018 payroll. We opened 2017 with a payroll of 123M. There is a hint that 2018 payroll could be down from this. So let's say 120M since it is just a hint. You also have the fact that they seem to have not left much if anything in the kitty for mid-course acquisitions last year (which required the Cardinals to pay part of Adams's remaining salary). I think it would make sense to have a reserve of about $5M at the start of 2018. So an opening day payroll of 115M in 2018.
If Dickey and everyone else currently under contract comes back I have us right at 100M. That leaves us 15M to play with. I would spend that on a third baseman (someone like Nunez, Cabrera or Solarte) and a reliever.
If Dickey retires, I think we would acquire a veteran pitcher (to go along with Teheran, Folty, Gohara and Newcomb in the rotation). So I don't see that as creating additional flexibility.
I don't think trading Kemp would net us much. Our best hope for some additional flexibility this off-season would be moving Muk.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
You know I never thought about him, but Solarte is actually a pretty decent comp for what Johan Camargo could be if he hits his ceiling, maybe with a little less power. But an average hitting switch hitter that can play a variety of positions sounds about like what I think of when I think of Camargo at his best