Baseball Prospectus Braves Top 10

We're seeing some deep divergences on Allard and Riley. I lean more toward the optimistic view of Allard (though I would not have him ahead of Soroka and Gohara) and am a bit more restrained on Riley. I think Riley is a good prospect but his most likely outcome is bench or platoon player rather than major league regular. I think he should be in the Top 10 with maybe Wilson being bumped out.
 
That is an interesting list. I like the bullishness on Wentz and Wright.

While I'm a fan of Allard and like to see that not everyone has jumped off that bandwagon, I wouldn't put him over Wright, Soroka, or Gohara.

I don't get why Gohara is buried as deep as he is.

Anderson is right where he should be. The control problems drop him behind everyone ahead of him.

I think what we're seeing is that after Acuna, we have a big group of pitchers that are all of similar value. So while the order varies widely from list to list, the difference between 2 and 7 isn't nearly as big for the Braves as it is for most teams.
 
thewupk said:
Another odd list
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It's because BP has gutted their prospect team. Chris Crawford (who wasn't that great to begin with) left BP willingly to write as ad hoc articles for Bleacher Report. That's how bad it's gotten there.

Of all the major outlets, BP is the one I would put the least stock in for prospect coverage.
 
CJ9 said:
Subscription necessary for player writeups, but this is a strange top 10. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/...-10-prospects-2018-ronald-acuna-kevin-maitan/

1. Ronald Acuna, OF

2. Kolby Allard, LHP

3.Mike Soroka, RHP

4. Kyle Wright, RHP

5.Joey Wentz, LHP

6. Luiz Gohara, LHP

7. Ian Anderson, RHP

8. Bryse Wilson, RHP

9. Kevin Maitan, SS

10.Cristian Pache, OF
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BP has gotten pretty bad, and it's about time to drop the subscription. The first silliness, "We are throwing an 8 on Ronald Acuña." Acuna is amazing, but he is not a FV 80 prospect.

If Gohara is still eligible for prospect lists, and he isn't the top pitcher in the Braves system, something is terribly wrong with the list.

Allard still ranked as the top pitching prospect is beyond dumb.

Wentz above Gohara is laughable.

Folks have soured very quickly on Maitan.

I suspect when Longenhagen comes out with his list it will be something along the lines of:

Acuna 65+
Gohara 60
Wright 60
Soroka 55
Maitan 55
Allard 50/55
Anderson 50/55
Pache 50
Wentz 50

With a host of other guys like Wilson and Riley making a case for #10 as a 45/50. If Fried is still eligible he would slot in around Allard/Anderson as a 50/55, probably 55 since Longenhagen seems to believe the stories about Fried's stuff.
 
Enscheff said:
BP has gotten pretty bad, and it's about time to drop the subscription. The first silliness, "We are throwing an 8 on Ronald Acuña." Acuna is amazing, but he is not a FV 80 prospect.

If Gohara is still eligible for prospect lists, and he isn't the top pitcher in the Braves system, something is terribly wrong with the list.

Allard still ranked as the top pitching prospect is beyond dumb.

Wentz above Gohara is laughable.

Folks have soured very quickly on Maitan.

I suspect when Longenhagen comes out with his list it will be something along the lines of:

Acuna 65+
Gohara 60
Wright 60
Soroka 55
Maitan 55
Allard 50/55
Anderson 50/55
Pache 50
Wentz 50

With a host of other guys like Wilson and Riley making a case for #10 as a 45/50. If Fried is still eligible he would slot in around Allard/Anderson as a 50/55, probably 55 since Longenhagen seems to believe the stories about Fried's stuff.
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I agree with almost all of this. I can't recall off the top of my head, but usually on fangraphs don't the top 1-2 and sometimes 3 prospects usually garner at least a 65/70 grade in a normal year? I could definitely see Acuna getting that sort of grade, because he is special. But yeah to slap an 80 on Acuna is silly. I would be fine with a 65 or a 70.

With grades along these lines:

Hit: 40/65
Raw: 60/60
Game Power: 40/60
Speed: 65/60
Glove: 50/60
Arm: 60/60

That would be a half a grade bump for his Hit tool, Game Power, Speed, Glove, and Arm since the last time they did a full grading on him in February. I think that arguably the season he had could justify bumping those grades up. Maybe except for the hit tool grade, which they could keep at a 60.
 
Enscheff said:
BP has gotten pretty bad, and it's about time to drop the subscription. The first silliness, "We are throwing an 8 on Ronald Acuña." Acuna is amazing, but he is not a FV 80 prospect.

If Gohara is still eligible for prospect lists, and he isn't the top pitcher in the Braves system, something is terribly wrong with the list.

Allard still ranked as the top pitching prospect is beyond dumb.

Wentz above Gohara is laughable.

Folks have soured very quickly on Maitan.

I suspect when Longenhagen comes out with his list it will be something along the lines of:

Acuna 65+
Gohara 60
Wright 60
Soroka 55
Maitan 55
Allard 50/55
Anderson 50/55
Pache 50
Wentz 50

With a host of other guys like Wilson and Riley making a case for #10 as a 45/50. If Fried is still eligible he would slot in around Allard/Anderson as a 50/55, probably 55 since Longenhagen seems to believe the stories about Fried's stuff.
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Outside of that I think your grades are basically spot on. I may be a little higher on Soroka than many though. I think an argument could be made for him being a 60, but it is very close. 55 is probably still about right for him
 
BeanieAntics said:
Outside of that I think your grades are basically spot on. I may be a little higher on Soroka than many though. I think an argument could be made for him being a 60, but it is very close. 55 is probably still about right for him
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Allard, Soroka, Wentz and to some extent Anderson are all guys with fringe stuff. I rank Soroka the highest of that bunch because I think his grade 60+ control gives him the highest floor of any of those Braves pitching prospects. He is almost guaranteed to be a #4 that throws 180+ innings.
 
Enscheff said:
BP has gotten pretty bad, and it's about time to drop the subscription. The first silliness, "We are throwing an 8 on Ronald Acuña." Acuna is amazing, but he is not a FV 80 prospect.
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That's ridiculous. That's essentially putting him at a level on par or better than ARod and Andruw. I love Acuna but he's not that level of prospect.
 
thewupk said:
That's ridiculous. That's essentially putting him at a level on par or better than ARod and Andruw. I love Acuna but he's not that level of prospect.
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It's almost as bad as pipeline hanging a FV 50 on every prospect with a pulse.
 
Enscheff said:
It's almost as bad as pipeline hanging a FV 50 on every prospect with a pulse.
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Right. Baseball America, to me, was the last bastion of mainstream prospect reporting. I wasn't a huge fan of their top 10 but we will see how it shakes out. I'm ready to see Eric's list in a few months.
 
BP's prospect focus is very strongly analytical more than scouting. However, there are still some good eyes there. David Lee is one of the best eyes in the SAL you'll find. If you are a dynasty fantasy player, they're the top site to use for sure. Otherwise, I'd review their write up to see their explanation. I did a long write up on the different prospect lists last offseason. One I didn't mention in the piece last spring that I would now is Prospects 1500, who has some very quality guys writing there, though not every guy is great. The big up-and-coming stud in the prospect game is 2080...

Crawford left for non-writing reasons. Really good guy and his reasons were very understandable.
 
Also, David Lee was basically the first national writer on Acuna, so he's really dug in hard on him, and thus BP along with him....
 
mqt said:
I get digging in on your guy, but he probably could stop short of "what if we actually predicted Mike Trout."
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He could be taking the same route as tehteh: tout every prospect as a star, and when one finally becomes a star he gets to gloat about being right.

Never mind the fact he never mentions being wrong 1,000 times before haha.
 
Devon
12:31 Eric, who do you prefer offensively: Acuna or Eloy?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:32 I guess Eloy. Acuna is still so young that he gets his lunch money taken by guys who can sequence well (go watch what Stinnett did to him in the Fall Stars game) where as Eloy's approach is more MLB-ready.

These are the ABs I was talking about here:

Enscheff said:
Acuna did not look good vs off speed stuff in his 2nd AB.
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and here:

Enscheff said:
Acuna again looked bad on a slider. I have a feeling we will see a lot of that next year. A lot of people are going to immediately compare him to Andruw.
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Mark
12:35 Austin Riley: above average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:37 More a chance to be average. Jake Lamb is an above avg regular. Has many of the same issues Riley does, but more raw power, better handedness and he's a 55.

What exactly is Jake Lamb with less power? Jake Lamb is an .800-.850 OPS guy with below average defense at 3B who produces about 2.5 wins. Lamb also walked more in the minors than Riley does.

How excited are we for a .750-.800 OPS guy with below average 3B defense that produces 1-2 wins? Still think the Braves should be making 3B plans around him?
 
Enscheff said:
Mark

12:35 Austin Riley: above average regular?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37 More a chance to be average. Jake Lamb is an above avg regular. Has many of the same issues Riley does, but more raw power, better handedness and he's a 55.

What exactly is Jake Lamb with less power? Jake Lamb is an .800-.850 OPS guy with below average defense at 3B who produces about 2.5 wins. Lamb also walked more in the minors than Riley does.

How excited are we for a .750-.800 OPS guy with below average 3B defense that produces 1-2 wins? Still think the Braves should be making 3B plans around him?
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I get that EL is a good scout or whatever, but you seem to act like his words are packed in between Matthew and Mark.
 
msstate7 said:
I get that EL is a good scout or whatever, but you seem to act like his words are packed in between Matthew and Mark.
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No idea who Matt or Mark are, but Longenhagen is by far the best prospect guy in the public sphere. In fact, I would argue he's the only one worth reading.

He doesn't hand out FV 50 grades to 60 guys in a single draft. He understands the difference between bat speed and swing length. He is accessible every single week via free chat. He sees more prospects live in a single day than the other clowns see in a month. He was in on Acuna early. He was the first on Pache. He was the one guy who didn't lower his outlook on Albies when he "struggled" in AAA. He has Wright as the #1 player in the last draft.
 
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