What's AA gonna do?

[clvclv]

Believe it or not when you crunch the numbers you get the path of expected wins from 2018 to 2021 I described. Some of it comes from the young talent coming into the major league team and maturing. Some of it comes from a presumably more efficient allocation of the money currently tied up in certain contracts, mostly the one to Kemp.

But as I have often stated, if we get an outstanding offer for any player I do the deal. In the absence of such offer(s) I'm happy to see the team gradually improve over the next four years as I expect it to. I do not perceive an urgent need to move Freeman or any particular player.

This is what it really comes down to. Whether you're an impatient fan (as many of us are at times) or someone more focused on the bigger long-term picture, you have to be realistic about the return.

Given the huge PR hit the organization just took, immediately turning around and trading the faces of the franchises who are currently in their primes could very easily put you in a situation where you have that shiny new park sitting empty for a long time - whether you're actually trending upward or not. Remember how butt hurt the masses were when Heyward was shipped off? I can remember posters saying they weren't going to the park for a long time over that - and the team had little control left in that instance.

Trading Freddie or Ender for anything less than a King's ransom right now could set the franchise back several years. The teams that have the type of prospects that might equal that King's ransom likely aren't desperate enough to make that kind of move because they have adequate players in those spots as it stands - that upgrade isn't likely to make or break them.

 

[Chico]

For 3 years fans have had to endure losing, while simultaneously having Hart and Coppy blow smoke up their arses.
JS got the funding done for the park in a somewhat sneaky move that ticked off some residents of Cobb County.
Construction of the park and access roadways inconveniecned a ton of people as far as traffic goes and husband/wives having to work overtime to finish jobs due to a tight deadline.
Atlanta is becoming more and more diverse with transplants from other regions and not just the South which means you ahve more Non-Braves fans than ever.
We've now been included in one of the biggest scandals in recent memory.

There is no way I see more tanking or trading our one stud in Freeman. If anything we need to make a concerted effort to put a winning ballclub on the field in 2018 as winning seems to cure most ailments. I do not think this is a go all in offseason whatsoever, but it's one where AA has the challenge of preparing for the future, but also answering to his boss's who see how much more revenue can be made when we're selling tickets.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Believe it or not when you crunch the numbers you get the path of expected wins from 2018 to 2021 I described. Some of it comes from the young talent coming into the major league team and maturing. Some of it comes from a presumably more efficient allocation of the money currently tied up in certain contracts, mostly the one to Kemp.

But as I have often stated, if we get an outstanding offer for any player I do the deal. In the absence of such offer(s) I'm happy to see the team gradually improve over the next four years as I expect it to. I do not perceive an urgent need to move Freeman or any particular player.

The question is not "do you go for incremental improvement or not." The questions I have are do you trade Teheran (not around in any case), Folty (headed to FA and getting expensive quickly), Inciarte (good but built for quick decline by position and value profile) and Freeman (great now, but likely not when the Braves will be good) for more good young talent to stock the rebuild, push the incremental improvement back one season, then use the money saved by dealing those guys to participate in the 2018/2019 FA market to replace what you gave up. That FA marketplace will have a lot of high end guys like Harper, Machado, Blackmon, Kershaw that the Braves likely won't play on. But other big money teams will which will limit their ability somewhat to play on the second tier guys like Donaldson, Dozier, LeMahieu, Murphy, Adam Jones, etc.

Of course, if you trade Inciarte you might bring back his replacement (or Freemans, etc.). For instance you might get Chicago to part with Schwarber plus in a deal for Inciarte, allowing you to play Schwarber at 1B.

You might get Milwaukee to trade you 2-3 young OF for Teheran or Folty (unlikely Brinson, but they have about 6 that could be useful and they have a need for pitching) or they might be interested in Freeman.

The Braves lost 90 games last year. If you trade away enough guys where the net effect for 2018 is that they lose 95 games, BUT they replace the talent given up in FA (something they would be less likely to be able to do if still saddled with the payroll obligations of Freeman, etc.) AND they have access to the young talent they traded FOR, then they could jump to 85 losses in 2019 (instead of 2018), then maybe 87 wins in 2020 and have a much better pipeline in place for sustained success going forward AND be coming out of the worst of the penalty box.

 

[nsacpi]

But other big money teams will which will limit their ability somewhat to play on the second tier guys like Donaldson, Dozier, LeMahieu, Murphy, Adam Jones, etc.

Those guys are the ones that are fools gold imo. Along with Moose and Frazier this off-season. 30 something guys who will sign contracts that give too much weight to past performance. We should learn from our own experiences with the Lowes, Ugglas and Muks.

 

[Southcack77]

I guess "real difference" is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. But I see us on a path where we win about 80 games in 2018, 80-85 in 2019 and 85-90 in 2020-2021. Those are the remaining years of Freeman's contract. Nothing is guaranteed of course. Lady Luck could smile on us in 2018 and frown on us in a subsequent season. But decisions have to be made on the best understanding we can generate of the probability distribution of outcomes.

I don't think you trade Freeman just because his current contract only figures to have a year or two of contention years. I'm not against trading Freeman for a good return and reallocating his money to address other positions.

But its not because some kind of window is opening or closing. He very well may be an all star caliber player on playoff teams before his contract is up. It's not unlikely and is perhaps more likely than not, that Freeman ends up extending his stay in Atlanta and doesn't hit the free agent market at all.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Those guys are the ones that are fools gold imo. Along with Moose and Frazier this off-season. 30 something guys who will sign contracts that give too much weight to past performance. We should learn from our own experiences with the Lowes, Ugglas and Muks.

But, that's the point. IF Freeman, especially, is kept you will be paying a 30 something guy for past performance. Sure, his contract ends after 2022 BUT those guys listed above probably won't get more than 5 years. And, you forego the talent (and flexibility) that you would get coming back from a Freeman trade.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I don't think you trade Freeman just because his current contract only figures to have a year or two of contention years. I'm not against trading Freeman for a good return and reallocating his money to address other positions.

But its not because some kind of window is opening or closing. He very well may be an all star caliber player on playoff teams before his contract is up. It's not unlikely and is perhaps more likely than not, that Freeman ends up extending his stay in Atlanta and doesn't hit the free agent market at all.

I don't dislike Freeman at all. Not my point. But suppose he is still great after 2022 and is now a FA and loves the Atlanta Braves and the Braves have a 1B need for a good but aging 1B, then fine, go sign him as a FA at that time.

To me, this is Vulcan philosophy - the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. It's a TEAM game. And, while I love watching individual performance as much as the next person, the individual is not important in the Team concept. If moving one or more individual(s) to benefit the Team, then smart management does that.

 

[nsacpi]

But, that's the point. IF Freeman, especially, is kept you will be paying a 30 something guy for past performance. Sure, his contract ends after 2022 BUT those guys listed above probably won't get more than 5 years. And, you forego the talent (and flexibility) that you would get coming back from a Freeman trade.

There are two issues here. Want to make sure we are not conflating them.

1) Extenting Freeman. Doing so at market rates would likely entail making the fools gold mistake I alluded to.

2) However, his current contract is a very different matter. In general, extensions of that sort work out much better for the clubs. I do agree that there is substantial value there. And that some club might make us an offer that more than justifies giving that up. I'm not eager to shop Freeman. I think the default setting of keeping him for the remaining years of his deal is a fairly attractive outcome. But if some club offers a great return I'm willing to trade him and any other player for that matter.

 

[Southcack77]

Believe it or not when you crunch the numbers you get the path of expected wins from 2018 to 2021 I described. Some of it comes from the young talent coming into the major league team and maturing. Some of it comes from a presumably more efficient allocation of the money currently tied up in certain contracts, mostly the one to Kemp.

But as I have often stated, if we get an outstanding offer for any player I do the deal. In the absence of such offer(s) I'm happy to see the team gradually improve over the next four years as I expect it to. I do not perceive an urgent need to move Freeman or any particular player.

How the Braves approach this offseason is really going to be interesting.

they are going to have to consider how to deal with the gutting of their low farm system. They can either shrug it off and simply try to nail the draft going forward and hope for the best or they can start making moves aimed at shoring that up.

From a marketing standpoint, you have to wonder whether the organization will want to make a splash to turn the page or whether they will stick with the plan the prior regime seemed to have of waiting for the prospects to arrive.

I would prefer patience and incremental improvement. But I suppose you could make an argument for aggressive moves aimed at the draft. Or aggressive moves aimed at prospects. Or aggressive moves aimed at winning 85-90 games this season (my least favorite option).

 

[Southcack77]

But, that's the point. IF Freeman, especially, is kept you will be paying a 30 something guy for past performance. Sure, his contract ends after 2022 BUT those guys listed above probably won't get more than 5 years. And, you forego the talent (and flexibility) that you would get coming back from a Freeman trade.

Donaldson and Frazier are 31 now and their contracts will take them into their mid 30s over sure decline. Freeman's contract only extends through his age 31 season. Not the same thing at all.

It's always possible to suggest trading a great player for prospects and replacing him in free agency. Reality is that you rarely are able to replace the production and prospects usually don't work out.

 

[nsacpi]

How the Braves approach this offseason is really going to be interesting.

they are going to have to consider how to deal with the gutting of their low farm system. They can either shrug it off and simply try to nail the draft going forward and hope for the best or they can start making moves aimed at shoring that up.

From a marketing standpoint, you have to wonder whether the organization will want to make a splash to turn the page or whether they will stick with the plan the prior regime seemed to have of waiting for the prospects to arrive.

I would prefer patience and incremental improvement. But I suppose you could make an argument for aggressive moves aimed at the draft. Or aggressive moves aimed at prospects. Or aggressive moves aimed at winning 85-90 games this season (my least favorite option).

The thinning out of the lower farm system imo is much more of an issue for the years beyond Freeman's contract (currently set to expire after 2021). It has some effect on the next four years since we have fewer trade chips. But the much greater effect is on subsequent years.

 

[Southcack77]

I don't dislike Freeman at all. Not my point. But suppose he is still great after 2022 and is now a FA and loves the Atlanta Braves and the Braves have a 1B need for a good but aging 1B, then fine, go sign him as a FA at that time.

To me, this is Vulcan philosophy - the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. It's a TEAM game. And, while I love watching individual performance as much as the next person, the individual is not important in the Team concept. If moving one or more individual(s) to benefit the Team, then smart management does that.

I know these things matter to younger fans, but it doesn't matter to me if Freddie Freeman is on the team or not. It used to matter to me, but then I got older than all the players and I can't feel that way anymore. It's not emotion based at all.

If you can trade Freeman for a good package that helps the team and you have a plan for reallocating his salary to better places, then all power to you.

I don't buy into the idea that you have to trade him because his contract only runs into 2022 and that would only include a season or two of real contention. If you believe you will contend for two seasons with Freddie Freeman as an All Star level 1B then you should want that to happen rather than worry about whether the franchise will have a smooth path forward after his free agency.

Long runs are sure nice, but I don't need another 15 year dynasty as a baseline.

 

[Chico]

How the Braves approach this offseason is really going to be interesting.

they are going to have to consider how to deal with the gutting of their low farm system. They can either shrug it off and simply try to nail the draft going forward and hope for the best or they can start making moves aimed at shoring that up.

From a marketing standpoint, you have to wonder whether the organization will want to make a splash to turn the page or whether they will stick with the plan the prior regime seemed to have of waiting for the prospects to arrive.

I would prefer patience and incremental improvement. But I suppose you could make an argument for aggressive moves aimed at the draft. Or aggressive moves aimed at prospects. Or aggressive moves aimed at winning 85-90 games this season (my least favorite option).

I think AA is going to focus on the draft to replenish the lower levels. Even with the gutting we still have Contreras, Vazquez, Cruz, Waters, Encarnacion, Ramos as the start to a Rome lineup as well as Muller, Tarnok, Ynao as a start to the rotation and a ton of relievers to choose from headlined by Bacon in the pen. I think he'll take back some wild cards in trades in hoping to hit on a couple, but it won't be a focus.

I don't think a "splash" is necessary, but some smart manuevering to make us better this year as well as 2018 should be the focus. Liberty should give him some resources to do so.

 

[Southcack77]

There are two issues here. Want to make sure we are not conflating them.

1) Extenting Freeman. Doing so at market rates would likely entail making the fools gold mistake I alluded to.

2) However, his current contract is a very different matter. In general, extensions of that sort work out much better for the clubs. I do agree that there is substantial value there. And that some club might make us an offer that more than justifies giving that up. I'm not eager to shop Freeman. I think the default setting of keeping him for the remaining years of his deal is a fairly attractive outcome. But if some club offers a great return I'm willing to trade him and any other player for that matter.

1. If you could trade Freeman for premium young talent and then go out and sign a premium young free agent with his money and Markakis' money then that could be a real good plan. No objection to trying that. Maybe you can trade Freeman for an All Star caliber player at another position and then spend his money on a second All Star. That might make sense.

2. I also don't think its the worst thing in the world to let him play out his contract through his prime years, maybe contend, and then make him a QO or sign him for another below market contract if he's willing. I don't think we have to be so scared of contracts running out without getting anything when the team has a chance to win.

 

[Southcack77]

I think AA is going to focus on the draft to replenish the lower levels. Even with the gutting we still have Contreras, Vazquez, Cruz, Waters, Encarnacion, Ramos as the start to a Rome lineup as well as Muller, Tarnok, Ynao as a start to the rotation and a ton of relievers to choose from headlined by Bacon in the pen. I think he'll take back some wild cards in trades in hoping to hit on a couple, but it won't be a focus.

I don't think a "splash" is necessary, but some smart manuevering to make us better this year as well as 2018 should be the focus. Liberty should give him some resources to do so.

One thing is certain, they've freed up some international draft expenses for the foreseeable future that might be reallocated.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I think my way works or else I wouldn't have put it forward.

However, I'm willing to admit that my way is also a passive/aggressive response to MLB as well.

MLB hates when teams tank, even though they established the rules to essentially force any rebuilding with any sense to tank. MLB wants the Braves to take this over the top punishment and walk away.

I would love to see AA make some great trades that help the Braves (first and foremost) but also see him going on every media outlet available and saying "considering the severity of the reaction of MLB to the infractions done by previous management, we felt we had no choice but to re-evaluate, re-set and build again. The penalties as handed out by MLB, justifiable or not, were designed to penalize the Braves not just today but for years into the future. We believe that by realigning the timeline of the rebuild we can limit the effect long term on those who were set to be punished most, which is the fans of the Atlanta Braves. This may mean more short term pain but will limit to lingering after effects of both the cancer and the medicine."

 

[nsacpi]

One thing is certain, they've freed up some international draft expenses for the foreseeable future that might be reallocated.

We're not talking about much money. The international bonus pool is about $5M. The problem for the Braves is that the true value of the pool is much greater than $5M. It is an entirely different currency.

 

[Southcack77]

We're not talking about much money. The international bonus pool is about $5M. The problem for the Braves is that the true value of the pool is much greater than $5M. It is an entirely different currency.

I know it was a bit of a joke.

Still, that's a reliever or bench bat.

 

[nsacpi]

1. If you could trade Freeman for premium young talent and then go out and sign a premium young free agent with his money and Markakis' money then that could be a real good plan.

Who do you have in mind?

 

[cajunrevenge]

We're not talking about much money. The international bonus pool is about $5M. The problem for the Braves is that the true value of the pool is much greater than $5M. It is an entirely different currency.

Yes but you dont see any value from that investment for years. Spending it now on the ML team gets value now. A bird in your hand is worth 2 in the bush. Obviously the value is going to be lower over the long term 99 times out of 100 but you never know, that little bit of extra money now could lead to a move like the Astros getting Verlander that gets them a championship. Maybe we use that money to help sign Kimbrel next year.