Winter Meetings Predictions
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I would guess some of the variance springs from the fact he's an odd player in that he's a ball-in-play guy who actually hits for some power, but that power varies quite a bit. Doesn't walk much and his K-rate has only been at 20% in one season. That means (at least to me) that if he's not hitting the ball with authority, his offensive value is going to vary wildly. Not particularly good on defense. I don't reference Nancy Reagan much in my life, but in this case:
Over the last 3 seasons his LD% of 19.1% ranks 182 of 232 qualified hitters. Due to hitting so many FBs and GBs, his BABIP is prone to being very volatile and luck driven.
You can see his production is determined by his BABIP. His .220 in 2014 was especially unlucky.
Lol probably not.
Ok bud. That’s definitely not an extreme pozzy take on Mous vs Camargo.
Mous is going to make about $70M-$75M over the next 4 years. Camargo will likely make about $2M-$3M over the next 4 years.
That means you think Camargo carries about $70M in surplus value. I’m guessing no team in the game agrees with your assessment.
WaitingFor2017
Well-known member
From Peter Gammons:
"The Braves will trade Julio Teheran, who was spooked by their new, homer-happy park."
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-splashes-and-notes-from-the-orlando-winter-meetings/
"The Braves will trade Julio Teheran, who was spooked by their new, homer-happy park."
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-splashes-and-notes-from-the-orlando-winter-meetings/
Haven’t we gotten to be point yet where we can ignore everything Gammons has to say?
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
This is 100% a joke. lol be real, man.
Well Moose at that money will be underwater by at the very least 15 million. Are we still a 8M per WAR? I could easily see him coming in at 7 WAR after 4 seasons.
msstate7
Well-known member
Who would be interested in Julio? Any value left for him?
Umm...
Mous is probably projected to produce something like 8 wins over the next 4 years. That’s why he is projected to earn $85M-$95M over the next 5. These salary numbers are what they are for reason. They are not just pulled out of thin air like your “projections”.
Literally nobody thinks Camargo is going to produce more wins than Mous. You think every single player in the Braves organization has a floor of 2 wins per year.
Giving Camargo a chance to be a serviceable 1-2 win player while he is cheap is perfectly logical. Claiming he will produce more wins than Mous is just being laughably pozzy.
The Yankees just reacted to the situation. Stanton's agent likely tipped them off that the no-trade clause would be exercised for offers (probably better) to the Marlins from the Cards and the Giants.
Deester11
Well-known member
I just didn't understand this sentiment ms. Is he an ace? No, but his value lies in a bounce back, contract and /or change of scenery. He's continually short changed considering most on this board claimed Folty would be an "ace" by years end. If we don't trade for an ace and trade julio, you'll see what he meant to the rotation.
msstate7
Well-known member
I think you’re misunderstanding my question. Obviously Julio has lost some value... how much value does he still have? Who are the teams that would have interest?
Didn’t mean it like he has no value and no one would want him
Deester11
Well-known member
Perfectly good question ms. I think at the end of the day, you're selling low on him no matter what you do. I almost favor trading him because he's shot at Suntrust. I do think he's probably in the middle of not as bad as most people think and valued more for what he could be in the right rotation. While you'll be shopping him in the Way-Mart aisle, it doesn't mean you shouldn't upgrade to the Macy's aisle if you include his salary but I would never expect a "haul" for him.
Now, if you headline him and add a tier 2 prospect, you've significantly upped the return IMHO.
I think you are 100% correct. Teheran’s production seems to depend heavily on his control. When he has a BB/9 around 2 he is a legit #3 and possibly a low end #2. When his BB/9 is over 3 like it was last year he is a league average #4.
I like the chances of Teheran getting back under 3 BB/9 and being a 2-3 win #3. At that point it would be wise to trade him at the deadline if the Braves are out of contention.
I would not trade him now unless another team values him at around $30M in surplus value.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I would be in favor of selling JT at the deadline if he can bounce back. I worry with our current coaches they will tweak him to walk more and Twitner will completely miss manage his innings. Hopefully Acuna in RF and Oz at second will help the entire staff. Swanson has to be better too. He can’t be that bad defensively.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I would keep in mind that AA has a track record of keeping his plans secret and that ESPN and Peter Gammons have terrible track records. I doubt Teheran is traded at the GM meetings and would think AA smart enough not to sign Moose to a long-term deal for third with Riley not far off and looking good.