Winter Meetings Predictions

Braves1976 said:
I would keep in mind that AA has a track record of keeping his plans secret and that ESPN and Peter Gammons have terrible track records. I doubt Teheran is traded at the GM meetings and would think AA smart enough not to sign Moose to a long-term deal for third with Riley not far off and looking good.
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Where have you been?
 
Enscheff said:
Haven’t we gotten to be point yet where we can ignore everything Gammons has to say?
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An aneurysm is a terrible thing. But even before that, he was so wrong so often about the Braves I always questioned his angles pertaining to us. I still recall him writing in his old BA column that Alex (non-Sea Bass) Gonzalez was going to have a better career than Chipper Jones.

As per Moustakas, he's a better overall player than Camargo and would give us another power bat, but his cost per unit of production is going to be too high. Further, if we do sign him, what does that say about the internal assessment of Austin Riley? You don't sign an iffy player for four or five years if you have someone in waiting.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I would be in favor of selling JT at the deadline if he can bounce back. I worry with our current coaches they will tweak him to walk more and Twitner will completely miss manage his innings. Hopefully Acuna in RF and Oz at second will help the entire staff. Swanson has to be better too. He can’t be that bad defensively.
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They'll help the guys who can keep the ball in the park. Unless Acuna is allowed to stand on the other side of the fence, he won't be that much help to Teheran.
 
50PoundHead said:
An aneurysm is a terrible thing. But even before that, he was so wrong so often about the Braves I always questioned his angles pertaining to us. I still recall him writing in his old BA column that Alex (non-Sea Bass) Gonzalez was going to have a better career than Chipper Jones.

As per Moustakas, he's a better overall player than Camargo and would give us another power bat, but his cost per unit of production is going to be too high. Further, if we do sign him, what does that say about the internal assessment of Austin Riley? You don't sign an iffy player for four or five years if you have someone in waiting.
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I agree and I like Riley's potential and would think AA would like him too.
 
50PoundHead said:
An aneurysm is a terrible thing. But even before that, he was so wrong so often about the Braves I always questioned his angles pertaining to us. I still recall him writing in his old BA column that Alex (non-Sea Bass) Gonzalez was going to have a better career than Chipper Jones.

As per Moustakas, he's a better overall player than Camargo and would give us another power bat, but his cost per unit of production is going to be too high. Further, if we do sign him, what does that say about the internal assessment of Austin Riley? You don't sign an iffy player for four or five years if you have someone in waiting.
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A Mous signing probably means Riley will be used in a trade to help fix LF.

There are viable paths that include Mous, but I would be surprised if the Braves give up a pick to sign him. They likely don’t have the payroll to add him and fix LF anyways, which defeats the purpose of upgrading 3b.
 
Enscheff said:
I think you are 100% correct. Teheran’s production seems to depend heavily on his control. When he has a BB/9 around 2 he is a legit #3 and possibly a low end #2. When his BB/9 is over 3 like it was last year he is a league average #4.

I like the chances of Teheran getting back under 3 BB/9 and being a 2-3 win #3. At that point it would be wise to trade him at the deadline if the Braves are out of contention.

I would not trade him now unless another team values him at around $30M in surplus value.
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Absolutely on point! We shouldn't trade him for the sake of a trade. Not adverse to a trade but not for pennies on the dollar...
 
I guess a big question that we don't know the answer to is if AA wants to put Dansby in Gwinnett for a couple of months. Then you could sign a 3B and move around Albies/Camargo to 2b/SS. I'd still prefer a short term option like many names nsacpi has floated around. Just want to keep the flexibility up for future years. Makes it easier to build a roster IMO.
 
Another Moustakas to the Braves prediction. The persistence of this prediction seems to rely more on a lack of creativity amongst pundits than a real obviousness of fit. I still don't see it, unless Anthopoulos can sign the guy to extremely favorable terms given an otherwise weak market for him—and, even then, I'm skeptical he provides much value to any good Braves team, assuming the organization is still a year or three away from that plateau.

He's also a good example of how the QO really hurts fringe-good players, considering the Giants are rumored to be interested, and would seemingly be desperately so if not for the QO penalties attached. I guess if that kills his market enough that the Braves can secure him on a shorter-term, cut-rate deal, his power could play well in Cobb County, and perhaps compensate for his (potentially) declining defense and the volatility he carries as a very AVG-dependent hitter.
 
jpx7 said:
Another Moustakas to the Braves prediction. The persistence of this prediction seems to rely more on a lack of creativity amongst pundits than a real obviousness of fit. I still don't see it, unless Anthopoulos can sign the guy to extremely favorable terms given an otherwise weak market for him—and, even then, I'm skeptical he provides much value to any good Braves team, assuming the organization is still a year or three away from that plateau.

He's also a good example of how the QO really hurts fringe-good players, considering the Giants are rumored to be interested, and would seemingly be desperately so if not for the QO penalties attached. I guess if that kills his market enough that the Braves can secure him on a shorter-term, cut-rate deal, his power could play well in Cobb County, and perhaps compensate for his (potentially) declining defense and the volatility he carries as a very AVG-dependent hitter.
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He wouldn't provide much value to a good Braves' team, but he'd make even less sense to a bad or middling Braves' team.
 
I think Kemp and most of his salary (Braves pay most of his salary) will be traded to a team looking for a DH. I would get on the horn with crappy teams like the White Sox who obviously won't be competitive for a while but might want to fill out their roster with players who still have some name recognition and an ability to entertain fans. Fans like homeruns.
 
weso1 said:
I think Kemp and most of his salary (Braves pay most of his salary) will be traded to a team looking for a DH. I would get on the horn with crappy teams like the White Sox who obviously won't be competitive for a while but might want to fill out their roster with players who still have some name recognition and an ability to entertain fans. Fans like homeruns.
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What is the White Sox's DH situation?

I don't know who else is in that boat. Maybe the Tigers? But they are shedding payroll and maybe are more retooling than anything else.
 
weso1 said:
I think Kemp and most of his salary (Braves pay most of his salary) will be traded to a team looking for a DH. I would get on the horn with crappy teams like the White Sox who obviously won't be competitive for a while but might want to fill out their roster with players who still have some name recognition and an ability to entertain fans. Fans like homeruns.
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Anyone expecting the Braves to unload “most of his salary” is going to be to horribly disappointed. If the Braves unload more than $5M of the $36M they owe him AA did an excellent job.
 
weso1 said:
I think Kemp and most of his salary (Braves pay most of his salary) will be traded to a team looking for a DH. I would get on the horn with crappy teams like the White Sox who obviously won't be competitive for a while but might want to fill out their roster with players who still have some name recognition and an ability to entertain fans. Fans like homeruns.
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I agree. The problem for the Braves is that Kemp has become so bad in the OF any progress on the field means he pretty much as to go. I'll admit I missed badly on Kemp, largely due to the fact I only viewed him two dimensions. His stat line--both standard and advanced--was nothing extraordinary, but I hadn't watch him in person lately and witnessed the absolute blob he had morphed into.

Enscheff, I think that's what weso1 is saying. We aren't going to get much for him even if we pay most of his salary. I'm almost to the point where I'd expect a bucket of baseballs for him. We just need to get him out of the way.
 
50PoundHead said:
I agree. The problem for the Braves is that Kemp has become so bad in the OF any progress on the field means he pretty much as to go. I'll admit I missed badly on Kemp, largely due to the fact I only viewed him two dimensions. His stat line--both standard and advanced--was nothing extraordinary, but I hadn't watch him in person lately and witnessed the absolute blob he had morphed into.

Enscheff, I think that's what weso1 is saying. We aren't going to get much for him even if we pay most of his salary. I'm almost to the point where I'd expect a bucket of baseballs for him. We just need to get him out of the way.
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AA hasn't appeared to be shy about paying players to just "go away" to provide himself with more roster flexibility in the past. The question here - specifically in Kemp's case - is will he be given the go ahead to do so now?

It's obviously not optimal to start Acuna's clock right away, but how much better would the 2018 Braves be right out of the gate with Acuna in RF, Markakis in LF, and an extra roster spot that's NOT being taken up by a DH in the NL??? If it's enough to make them closer to the outer edge of contending for a wildcard, can he find a taker if he pays someone like the White Sox $22 million (Markakis' salary x 2) just to get him out of the way?

I don't think anyone but AA knows the answer to that, but it's certainly worth the speculation. The reason I always consider Kemp a part of the roster through next season is twofold - the old brass kept saying they weren't going to eat money to move either of the old guys, and after having to swallow over $20 million because of Coppygate I can't imagine corporate ownership is keen on paying even more money to someone that belongs to someone else now.
 
50PoundHead said:
I agree. The problem for the Braves is that Kemp has become so bad in the OF any progress on the field means he pretty much as to go. I'll admit I missed badly on Kemp, largely due to the fact I only viewed him two dimensions. His stat line--both standard and advanced--was nothing extraordinary, but I hadn't watch him in person lately and witnessed the absolute blob he had morphed into.

Enscheff, I think that's what weso1 is saying. We aren't going to get much for him even if we pay most of his salary. I'm almost to the point where I'd expect a bucket of baseballs for him. We just need to get him out of the way.
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Yes I was agreeing with him. Anything over $5M saved is a win.
 
Southcack77 said:
What is the White Sox's DH situation?

I don't know who else is in that boat. Maybe the Tigers? But they are shedding payroll and maybe are more retooling than anything else.
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They've got a guy who is a pretty good hitter as a LF/DH who they could play in LF full time.
 
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