Braves a Cinderella team in '18?

If we get a pillow deal or two then I might go there.

This team still feels like a 70 something win team to me. Maybe marlins super tank pucks he’s them to 81
 
Ehhh... doubt it, but I'd be happy!

I'm still sticking with 75-80 wins at the most.

Of course, it all depends on our young pitchers.
 
My win prediction is based on the following:

1) Im an irrational fan
2) Albies is a star
3) Acuna is a star
4) Gohara will be a star

Star = 4-6 WAR
 
thethe said:
My win prediction is based on the following:

1) Im an irrational fan
2) Albies is a star
3) Acuna is a star
4) Gohara will be a star

Star = 4-6 WAR
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Further you already have Freeman (5-6 WAR) and Inciarte (3-5). That base right there is 18-29 WAR from 5 players. Not hard to get to mid 80s when you have so much production out of 1/5 of your roster.
 
thethe said:
Inciarte (3-5)
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This right here is a microcosm of why nobody takes pozzies seriously.

The highest WAR value Inciarte has ever posted is 3.6. He has proven himself to be a roughly league average hitter, producing the bulk of his wins through defense. His defense is unquestionably declining as a 27 year old.

It is mind boggling how someone can take those facts and conclude that a 5 is reasonable in Inciarte’s 2018 projection in any way, shape or form.

3 wins is his optimistic projection, yet pozzies use it as the floor of his range.
 
Enscheff said:
This right here is a microcosm of why nobody takes pozzies seriously.

The highest WAR value Inciarte has ever posted is 3.6. He has proven himself to be a roughly league average hitter, producing the bulk of his wins through defense. His defense is unquestionably declining as a 27 year old.

It is mind boggling how someone can take those facts and conclude that a 5 is reasonable in Inciarte’s 2018 projection in any way, shape or form.

3 wins is his optimistic projection, yet pozzies use it as the floor of his range.
Click to expand...

the LOWEST bWAR he's put up is 3. And I've had plenty of people tell me theirs is better. such an angry little man.
 
I mean, let's say you project the Braves as a 75-80 win team. And let's say they're actually at the very top end of that band.

A true talent 80-win team playing at a high enough level to compete for the second wild card into September isn't really that unlikely. We have some young, high-variance players, and if they all explode together...sure, it's conceivable we could be a "Cinderella."

That's still a loooooong way from being a genuinely competitive team, in the sense of realistically competing for a World Series or even a division title.
 
Enscheff said:
This right here is a microcosm of why nobody takes pozzies seriously.

The highest WAR value Inciarte has ever posted is 3.6. He has proven himself to be a roughly league average hitter, producing the bulk of his wins through defense. His defense is unquestionably declining as a 27 year old.

It is mind boggling how someone can take those facts and conclude that a 5 is reasonable in Inciarte’s 2018 projection in any way, shape or form.

3 wins is his optimistic projection, yet pozzies use it as the floor of his range.
Click to expand...

Obviously you're using something other than bWAR.

2014: 3.7
2015: 5.3
2016: 3.8
2017: 3.0

While it's reasonable to assume some decline due to defense, it seems like stretch to expect that to happen to a significant degree in his age 27 season. I would expect something like last year's performance to be the floor defensively, and the ceiling to be around halfway between that and his peak years. I would think the optimistic prediction for 2018 would be in the 4+ range, and the pessimistic to be around 2.5 or a little below. Ender, like a lesser version of Andruw, isn't primarily dependent upon his speed for his defensive ability. I would think that could slow his rate of defensive decline as well.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Obviously you're using something other than bWAR.

2014: 3.7

2015: 5.3

2016: 3.8

2017: 3.0

While it's reasonable to assume some decline due to defense, it seems like stretch to expect that to happen to a significant degree in his age 27 season. I would expect something like last year's performance to be the floor defensively, and the ceiling to be around halfway between that and his peak years. I would think the optimistic prediction for 2018 would be in the 4+ range, and the pessimistic to be around 2.5 or a little below. Ender, like a lesser version of Andruw, isn't primarily dependent upon his speed for his defensive ability. I would think that could slow his rate of defensive decline as well.
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Yes, nobody takes bWAR very seriously.
 
I think best case they could flirt with .500 all year depending who is traded at the deadline if anyone is.

2019 is when i think the Braves could make their Astros 2015/Cubs 2015 type run depending what moves are made next winter.

If guys like Swanson, Albies, Acuna all project well and some of the pitchers develop into top tier.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Obviously you're using something other than bWAR.

2014: 3.7

2015: 5.3

2016: 3.8

2017: 3.0

While it's reasonable to assume some decline due to defense, it seems like stretch to expect that to happen to a significant degree in his age 27 season. I would expect something like last year's performance to be the floor defensively, and the ceiling to be around halfway between that and his peak years. I would think the optimistic prediction for 2018 would be in the 4+ range, and the pessimistic to be around 2.5 or a little below. Ender, like a lesser version of Andruw, isn't primarily dependent upon his speed for his defensive ability. I would think that could slow his rate of defensive decline as well.
Click to expand...

He's obviously using fangraphs.

And it's not just reasonable to assume a decline in bWAR due to defense, it's a fact. Ender's DRS has gone from 29 to 15 to 5 the past 3 seasons. Luckily Ender's range has essentially been the same from 16 to 17 but in 17 he had a much poorer arm rating and wasn't as clean when fielding plays either. Hopefully that's a blip and his defense is closer to 16 levels than 15. But yeah Ender is at the age where most defenders start to decline. I don't expect him to be bad but his best seasons defensively are likely behind him. And without an improvement on offense to counter that then his overall value will go down as well.
 
thewupk said:
He's obviously using fangraphs.

And it's not just reasonable to assume a decline in bWAR due to defense, it's a fact. Ender's DRS has gone from 29 to 15 to 5 the past 3 seasons. Luckily Ender's range has essentially been the same from 16 to 17 but in 17 he had a much poorer arm rating and wasn't as clean when fielding plays either. Hopefully that's a blip and his defense is closer to 16 levels than 15. But yeah Ender is at the age where most defenders start to decline. I don't expect him to be bad but his best seasons defensively are likely behind him. And without an improvement on offense to counter that then his overall value will go down as well.
Click to expand...

That's why they should trade him IF they can get full value back. They aren't really ready to compete and when they are he won't be the same player he is today.
 
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