Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

[nsacpi]

The Braves have had a mixed strategy that I thought made sense. Mostly pitchers from the draft and mostly position players via international signings. The penalties have blown a hole in the supply of position players. They will probably have to re-balance a bit the next few years given the penalties affecting international signings.

 

[thethe]

Whether it's pitching or position players teams like the Braves are competitive when they have multiple good players on the cheap. Looks to be off to a decent start in 2018.

Agreed. A core of 3-4 WAR players while still in their pre arb / arb 1 years is the key. I think we could see that soon with Albies/Acuna/Gohara/Newk. Thats just ignoring those players who haven't made their debut. Roster construction gets fun at that point.

 

[Enscheff]

Awwww, what's the matter - will none of the guys playing in the World Series Of Poker speak to you when they're in your casino? More likely that your bosses won't let you venture out of the closet you work in for fear some of them actually do meet you and are so insulted that they organize a boycott of the place.

LOL, just let us know when you have some more insider info, or if you hear anything juicy on XM, mmkay?

Thanks champ. We are all eagerly awaiting your next contribution to the board. Still waiting for Odorizzi though...

 

[Southcack77]

It's really just the next step of pitching specialization. How many numerous starters over the years struggle mightily the third time through the lineup? Instead of just hoping they can make it through just plan to not have that happen.

Practically speaking, I don’t think that is going to make sense given roster sizes and salariy structure.

Also not sure there is much evidence that long relief is growing in favor.

 

[Enscheff]

Practically speaking, I don’t think that is going to make sense given roster sizes and salariy structure.

Also not sure there is much evidence that long relief is growing in favor.

Yes...there is...

Total SP innings by season:

2014 - 28992

2015 - 28223

2016 - 27412

2017 - 26787

SPs are pitching fewer and fewer innings. Unless you think random position players are picking up those innings, BPs are taking the extra workload.

 

[Southcack77]

Yes...there is...

Total SP innings by season:

2014 - 28992

2015 - 28223

2016 - 27412

2017 - 26787

That just establishes starters going fewer innings not relievers being used longer.

The alternative to long relief is using more relievers more frequently.

 

[Enscheff]

That just establishes starters going fewer innings not relievers being used longer.

The alternative to long relief is using more relievers more frequently.

IP per appearance for BP arms:

2014 - 1.011

2015 - 1.005

2016 - 1.038

2017 - 1.051

 

[chop2chip]

I think it’s quite apparent the new trend is going to be six man rotations, which coupled with the ten day DL, will allow teams to piggy back starters more frequently. So instead of trying to stretch Gohara seven innings we may see him pitch five innings on his turn and work three innings on Folty’s day to pitch, for example. In fact, we may see an evolution where we stop referring to pitchers as a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5, but as a “seven inning guy” or “three inning pitcher”. This will allow guys like Folty who seem too talented for a relief role, but obviously not a 200 inning starter to flourish.

The days of someone like Shane Reynolds pitching eight innings are long gone.

 

[thewupk]

Practically speaking, I don’t think that is going to make sense given roster sizes and salariy structure.

Also not sure there is much evidence that long relief is growing in favor.

I'm sure there was a time when nobody thought 1 inning pitchers would make as much as average everyday players.

These things don't happen over night but I could see it be the next thing in pitching evolution.

2017 numbers for each time through the order for starters

1st Time: 732 OPS
2nd Time: 779 OPS
3rd Time: 801 OPS

For the league as a whole starters are completely ineffective the 3rd time through. Your elite guys can get the job done but most guys aren't that.

How crazy would it be to rock a 12 man pitching staff where your#3-#5 starters effectively share duties with 3 long guys who split the game. That leaves 4 pen spots for your match guys and "closer".

 

[nsacpi]

I'm sure there was a time when nobody thought 1 inning pitchers would make as much as average everyday players.

These things don't happen over night but I could see it be the next thing in pitching evolution.

2017 numbers for each time through the order for starters

1st Time: 732 OPS
2nd Time: 779 OPS
3rd Time: 801 OPS

For the league as a whole starters are completely ineffective the 3rd time through. Your elite guys can get the job done but most guys aren't that.

How crazy would it be to rock a 12 man pitching staff where your#3-#5 starters effectively share duties with 3 long guys who split the game. That leaves 4 pen spots for your match guys and "closer".

I think the simpler approach and one teams seem to be moving to is the 8 man pen. In theory you could set up 2 teams of 4 that would go 1 inning each every other day. The starter goes 5. In practice they haven't gone completely in that direction yet with managers still favoring some relievers when in the lead and others when the team is behind.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm sure there was a time when nobody thought 1 inning pitchers would make as much as average everyday players.

These things don't happen over night but I could see it be the next thing in pitching evolution.

2017 numbers for each time through the order for starters

1st Time: 732 OPS

2nd Time: 779 OPS

3rd Time: 801 OPS

For the league as a whole starters are completely ineffective the 3rd time through. Your elite guys can get the job done but most guys aren't that.

How crazy would it be to rock a 12 man pitching staff where your#3-#5 starters effectively share duties with 3 long guys who split the game. That leaves 4 pen spots for your match guys and "closer".

And those OPS numbers have extreme survivors bias due to the fact that only pitchers who are either elite or are pitching well that day are allowed to face the order a third time.

The game is slowly transitioning into most pitchers facing between 3-18 batters, never facing the same hitter a 3rd time unless they have a difinitive platoon advantage. The rest of the pitchers will be the elite guys who can go 20+ hitters, and specialists who can only get out 1-2 guys at a time.

 

[thethe]

I agree with the use of pitching moving forward. Also. It sounds like to me you guys are proving the need to heavily focus in drafting and develop pitching.

 

[Enscheff]

I agree with the use of pitching moving forward. Also. It sounds like to me you guys are proving the need to heavily focus in drafting and develop pitching.

Truth be told, this huge increase in the cost of BP arms means the calculus is almost certainly changing. Where it finally shakes out is still debatable, but it may not be the slam dunk it used to be.

Of course the Braves Way was being followed before the cost of BP arms exploded, so its a little hard to credit the old FO for being as smart as folks used to claim they were.

 

[thethe]

Truth be told, this huge increase in the cost of BP arms means the calculus is almost certainly changing. Where it finally shakes out is still debatable, but it may not be the slam dunk it used to be.

Of course the Braves Way was being followed before the cost of BP arms exploded, so its a little hard to credit the old FO for being as smart as folks used to claim they were.

What about taking the stance that the braves way was ahead of the league and they are now catching up? Just a thought. Braves have been steadfast in the claim that pitching is the most important commodity. Sinice the days of cox and snyder.

Lots of reason to throw shade at the braves because of numerous mistakes but they got this one right IMO.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

What about taking the stance that the braves way was ahead of the league and they are now catching up? Just a thought. Braves have been steadfast in the claim that pitching is the most important commodity. Sinice the days of cox and snyder.

Lots of reason to throw shade at the braves because of numerous mistakes but they got this one right IMO.

Braves way is trying to develop 3 hall of fame pitchers and not having to coach in the playoffs. I am not thinking they are 20 years ahead of everyone else. I have been fine with the balance in the minor less the Coppy disgrace. But I am not buying Cox and JS said draft pitchers because we can cash them in when we convert them to BP arms.

 

[Enscheff]

Braves way is trying to develop 3 hall of fame pitchers and not having to coach in the playoffs. I am not thinking they are 20 years ahead of everyone else. I have been fine with the balance in the minor less the Coppy disgrace. But I am not buying Cox and JS said draft pitchers because we can cash them in when we convert them to BP arms.

And it’s not like any of the pitchers they’ve acquired have even become useful BP arms.

Of all the guys they acquired, what do they have to show for it? Folty as a frustrating #4, and Gohara looks like the stud. The rest haven’t done anything. Most of the 12 pitchers who debuted with the Braves the last 3 years won’t even be MLB pitchers by 2020.

I also seriously doubt the Braves started acquiring every available pitching prospect because they knew BP prices would skyrocket in 2016/2017.

 

[thethe]

And it’s not like any of the pitchers they’ve acquired have even become useful BP arms.

Of all the guys they acquired, what do they have to show for it? Folty as a frustrating #4, and Gohara looks like the stud. The rest haven’t done anything. Most of the 12 pitchers who debuted with the Braves the last 3 years won’t even be MLB pitchers by 2020.

I also seriously doubt the Braves started acquiring every available pitching prospect because they knew BP prices would skyrocket in 2016/2017.

The first wave of blair/folty/wisler/Jenkins hasn't done anything sans folty..

Newc has already produced in his rookie season and as you noted he has elite stuff. Gohara has a chance to be a stud as you said. Fried season git sidetracked because of blister issues bUT showed signs.

That excludes the BP arms as Viz/Ramiriez/Minter/etc.... have all produced. That is just the first wave. There are at least two more waves to go.

 

[Enscheff]

What about taking the stance that the braves way was ahead of the league and they are now catching up? Just a thought. Braves have been steadfast in the claim that pitching is the most important commodity. Sinice the days of cox and snyder.

Lots of reason to throw shade at the braves because of numerous mistakes but they got this one right IMO.

I think it’s safe to say the only thing the Braves were ahead of the league in is illegally signing amatuer players.

We will find out soon enough just how valuable all these pitching prospects truly are. The Braves will be in position to convert them into MLB players as soon as this trade deadline. It will be interesting to see exactly what their pitching prospect currency is able to buy them.

Rest assured we will know with utter certainty by then.

 

[thethe]

Braves way is trying to develop 3 hall of fame pitchers and not having to coach in the playoffs. I am not thinking they are 20 years ahead of everyone else. I have been fine with the balance in the minor less the Coppy disgrace. But I am not buying Cox and JS said draft pitchers because we can cash them in when we convert them to BP arms.

The goal is to avoid FA prices for pitching. Before smoltz/maddux/glavine there were tons of pitching that failed. That is the strategy as most will fail

 

[thethe]

I think it’s safe to say the only thing the Braves were ahead of the league in is illegally signing amatuer players.

We will find out soon enough just how valuable all these pitching prospects truly are. The Braves will be in position to convert them into MLB players as soon as this trade deadline. It will be interesting to see exactly what their pitching prospect currency is able to buy them.

Rest assured we will know with utter certainty by then.

I atoll don't think pitching prospects are tremendously valuable in comprison to hitters. However, if a scenario pops up where folly is a 3-4 war pitcher he all of a sudden brings back multiple 50+ FV prospects.