There is no way the Braves are going to be competitive for Harper. The Dodgers and Yankees have been preparing for him for years. We helped the Dodgers prepare for him even more by taking their salary dump this year. Those two teams are going to throw so much more money than we can pay at him.
Donaldson in 2019
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
Not that it matters but the Dodgers put more money on their balance sheet 2019 and forward after the trade.
Fair.
Thomas was real good in those years. He is not an example of a negative for long term contracts to all time great hitters.
Yes. The Braves, with its current and likely future payroll situation, should not be players in the elite FA market. We either have to develop our own or trade for those that signed below market deals.
Well I don't know what the future holds and I'm still hopeful for a potential payroll in the 140-160 range when the battery is completed and the Braves are competitive for the next 5-8 years.
Thomas averaged 3 bWAR per year with a 137 OPS+ during his 30-36 age seasons. Yes that is good. But it's a sharp contract from an average or 6.4 bWAR and a 182 OPS+ in his 20s.
Thomas went from an elite all-time hitter to just being a good hitter. Yes he would be an example of a negative long term contract if he was going to be the highest paid player and producing like he did in his 30's.
Just like Pujols is a current example of that.
WAR is meh for me for a guy at first base / DH which Harpers long term future will be. For those guys its all about wRC+/wOBA
So you'd be ok with paying Pujols 25 million per year for the last 7 years or so?
Not sure how it came off that way but I was talking about Thomas. Pujols has been a disaster.
Thomas had a 137 WRC+ from his age 30 to 36 seasons.
Pujols had a 130 WRC+ from his age 30 to 36 seasons.
I fail to see how one is a disaster and the other one isn't.
The point is if all you care about is WRC+ for 1B/DH types then you should be ok paying Pujols 25 million (when it was one of the highest AAV) for his 30's.
It's just simply not a good idea to being paying max dollars (40 million plus in this case) for an elite player when that includes half of their 30's due to the decline factor that happens often.
I suspect you equally weighted thomas' 2001 year. Thomas was consistent. Pujols fell off a cliff.
I just went off of those ages. In the end you get what you pay for. Whether it's consistent throughout a contract or front loaded to the first half you still get it.
Thomas was even good in his 38/39 seasons. The two arent comparable. I'd love to have Thomas production in those years at the tail end of a Harper contract
I'd doubt you'd want to pay 40 million for a ~2 WAR player
I'd pay someone that money happily if the end of the contract produced 140 wrc+ seasons and I'd do it gladly.
It seems you have no idea why the Dodgers made the Kemp trade.
They are going to blow past the luxury tax cap in 2019. All they wanted to do was reset the penalty timer, and that’s exactly what they did.
Sure. But those type of seasons are rare as we've shown. Thomas didn't do it regularly and was often hurt.
Harper might be the greatest player of all time and consistently produce all-star seasons into his mid to late 30's. I just wouldn't count on it. The Braves can't take that risk with their payroll situation.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
we are positioned so we can construct a solid contending team without risking the kind of long term deals associated with premium free agents...so why do it
It also looks like we might be witnessing the pendulum swinging too far the other way when it comes to valuing veteran position players.
When a player like Frazier might legitimately be had for something like 2/22, Cain might have to sign for something as low as 3/45, and JDM might not be able to top $120M, they could represent a new market inefficiency. I know it sounds weird, but teams may now be too scared of signing veteran players.
If this kind of discount is applied to Donaldson next year, he might be available for something like 6/140, or maybe even 5/125. It’s hard to say if this offseason is an anamoly or the beginning of a new trend, but Donaldson is definitely a viable option for the Braves.
When a player like Frazier might legitimately be had for something like 2/22, Cain might have to sign for something as low as 3/45, and JDM might not be able to top $120M, they could represent a new market inefficiency. I know it sounds weird, but teams may now be too scared of signing veteran players.
If this kind of discount is applied to Donaldson next year, he might be available for something like 6/140, or maybe even 5/125. It’s hard to say if this offseason is an anamoly or the beginning of a new trend, but Donaldson is definitely a viable option for the Braves.