Donaldson in 2019

[Jaw]

A few thoughts after a late night perusal of this thread:

All of thethe's arguments for Harper are also arguments for Donaldson, except you're gambling with half as much.

The concerns about Donaldson being a millstone while the young pitchers are cheap...overlook that the ability to spend on hitters is the goal of developing cheap pitchers.

The chances of payroll going up are much higher if we can actually put a winner on the field. Having Inciarte, Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Donaldson at the top of the lineup with young pitchers blazing away would certainly put butts in seats.

There are only so many spots on the field to gain wins. Picking up 5 or 6 at a spot instead of 2 or 3 is worth a lot. Replacing Camargo with Donaldson in the lineup has a trickle down effect.

 

[thewupk]

It also looks like we might be witnessing the pendulum swinging too far the other way when it comes to valuing veteran position players.

When a player like Frazier might legitimately be had for something like 2/22, Cain might have to sign for something as low as 3/45, and JDM might not be able to top $120M, they could represent a new market inefficiency. I know it sounds weird, but teams may now be too scared of signing veteran players.

If this kind of discount is applied to Donaldson next year, he might be available for something like 6/140, or maybe even 5/125. It’s hard to say if this offseason is an anamoly or the beginning of a new trend, but Donaldson is definitely a viable option for the Braves.

We very well could be seeing a trend for non elite FA's. GM's are getting smarter and realizing that most FA's are past their prime and don't want to pay top dollar for it. Buster Olney had an article up this weekend that talked about teams not paying for pitcher wins, rbi, leadership, etc like they used to. This is just the next step.

 

[nsacpi]

I think Todd Frazier will get a bigger contract than Jay Bruce (AAV 13M/3 years). And Cain will get a bigger contract than Frazier.

 

[Hudson2]

The salaries eventually had to be leveled out bc they can’t just keep going up and up and up. There is only so much money that can be given out and just so high that ticket prices can be. It’ll be interesting to see just how much Harper and Machado gets. If Machado has another mediocre season then his price rage will take a big hit.

 

[Southcack77]

it's gonna be more like 10/400

I think that's more defensible than paying Donaldson 6/180 million.

30 million dead payroll dollars is equally disqualifying for Atlanta than 40 million. And getting seven prime years is better than maybe getting three.

 

[Southcack77]

A few thoughts after a late night perusal of this thread:

All of thethe's arguments for Harper are also arguments for Donaldson, except you're gambling with half as much.

The concerns about Donaldson being a millstone while the young pitchers are cheap...overlook that the ability to spend on hitters is the goal of developing cheap pitchers.

The chances of payroll going up are much higher if we can actually put a winner on the field. Having Inciarte, Albies, Acuna, Freeman, Donaldson at the top of the lineup with young pitchers blazing away would certainly put butts in seats.

There are only so many spots on the field to gain wins. Picking up 5 or 6 at a spot instead of 2 or 3 is worth a lot. Replacing Camargo with Donaldson in the lineup has a trickle down effect.

I don't think the Braves will sign Harper. My guess is his higher salary ends up north of 40 million per.

But saying he and Donaldson would have the same risk just isn't right.

Year one of Harper's deal is his Age 26 season. Year one of Donaldson's deal is his Age 33 season.

Basically you will have seven years of Harper's prime and near prime before you face the same risk of decline in Harper that you will see in Donaldson's first season.

Donaldson's deal is much more likely to include disastrous seasons than Harper's deal.

And it is anyone's guess how much 40 million in today's money will be in ten years. You can guarantee absent something absolutely remarkable that it will be worth less comparatively than it is today.

And in ten years the Braves will actually have a market rate television deal. Craziness.

 

[Southcack77]

The salaries eventually had to be leveled out bc they can’t just keep going up and up and up. There is only so much money that can be given out and just so high that ticket prices can be. It’ll be interesting to see just how much Harper and Machado gets. If Machado has another mediocre season then his price rage will take a big hit.

Inflation is pretty consistent. It's a pretty good bet tickets will be more expensive in the future. And television deals are unlikely to retract even if you don't see them greatly expand.

The only things really holding that back is a collapse in the economy or some other calamity, or a precipitous drop in the public's interest in baseball over the next ten years.

either is possible, but not particularly likely.

So salaries are likely to continue to increase as will revenues, most likely, though it will probably be fairly consistent in terms of real value to what it is now.

 

[Hudson2]

Only a few teams could sign Harper at 40 million per and it not cripple them. Yankees, Dodgers, and the Red Sox and 2 of them will definitely be interested. The Dodgers have Kershaw they will have to break the bank for so that leaves the Yankees as the favorites imo. Having Stanton, Harper, and Judge in the middle of the lineup would be unbelievable.

 

[sturg33]

Only a few teams could sign Harper at 40 million per and it not cripple them. Yankees, Dodgers, and the Red Sox and 2 of them will definitely be interested. The Dodgers have Kershaw they will have to break the bank for so that leaves the Yankees as the favorites imo. Having Stanton, Harper, and Judge in the middle of the lineup would be unbelievable.

I think Stanton takes the yanks out of the harper sweepstakes

 

[thewupk]

Only a few teams could sign Harper at 40 million per and it not cripple them. Yankees, Dodgers, and the Red Sox and 2 of them will definitely be interested. The Dodgers have Kershaw they will have to break the bank for so that leaves the Yankees as the favorites imo. Having Stanton, Harper, and Judge in the middle of the lineup would be unbelievable.

They may not get him. But I feel the Dodger reset that luxury penalty so they could make a run at him next year.

 

[nsacpi]

They may not get him. But I feel the Dodger reset that luxury penalty so they could make a run at him next year.

Will be surprised if it isn't on of the Dodgers, Red Sox or gnats

 

[Hudson2]

Will be surprised if it isn't on of the Dodgers, Red Sox or gnats

If the Sox end up with JDM they’re out. The Nats don’t have that kind of money do they? The Dodgers could sign both Harper and Kershaw I guess.

 

[50PoundHead]

Harper will sign with the Braves for the simple reason he wouldn't have to face Julio Teheran anymore.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

If the Sox end up with JDM they’re out. The Nats don’t have that kind of money do they? The Dodgers could sign both Harper and Kershaw I guess.

The Nats will have the money.. even with Max and Strawarm contracts. Philly could be a dark horse too.. although, not sure he would play there...

 

[Enscheff]

I don't think the Braves will sign Harper. My guess is his higher salary ends up north of 40 million per.

But saying he and Donaldson would have the same risk just isn't right.

Year one of Harper's deal is his Age 26 season. Year one of Donaldson's deal is his Age 33 season.

Basically you will have seven years of Harper's prime and near prime before you face the same risk of decline in Harper that you will see in Donaldson's first season.

Donaldson's deal is much more likely to include disastrous seasons than Harper's deal.

And it is anyone's guess how much 40 million in today's money will be in ten years. You can guarantee absent something absolutely remarkable that it will be worth less comparatively than it is today.

And in ten years the Braves will actually have a market rate television deal. Craziness.

Really? Who’s been hurt more the last 5 years? Who has posted more 5+ fWAR seasons the last 5 years?

This notion Harper comes without significant risk is laughably stupid.

Needless to say the Braves will simply be out bid for Harper.

 

[Enscheff]

They may not get him. But I feel the Dodger reset that luxury penalty so they could make a run at him next year.

Dodgers also have to pay Kershaw, but they are probably the favorite to sign Harper as well.

Bryant and Harper have some sort of bromance going on, so I wouldnt be shocked to see him sign with the Cubs.

 

[Southcack77]

Really? Who’s been hurt more the last 5 years? Who has posted more 5+ fWAR seasons the last 5 years?

This notion Harper comes without significant risk is laughably stupid.

Needless to say the Braves will simply be out bid for Harper.

1. The risk of injury is not congruent with the risk of decline.

2. All things being considered, past injuries aside, you are more likely to get a prime season out of a 26 year old superstar than you are out of a 33 year old lesser star.

I will agree with you on two points while we are at it. 1) the Kiley McDaniel article was sort of a mess and 2) one of the muddled points in that mess was he made was similar to something you mentioned earlier in this thread -- there is some question whether front offices might be headed towards paralysis by analysis.

If prices fall on Donaldson because no one wants to be the sucker who overpays the aging veteran, it starts to make sense for Atlanta.

Paying him 30 million for 6 years just to get the possibility of three good ones is not a wise decision, but I do know that is not what you were advocating.

 

[jpx7]

1. The risk of injury is not congruent with the risk of decline.

2. All things being considered, past injuries aside, you are more likely to get a prime season out of a 26 year old superstar than you are out of a 33 year old lesser star.

I will agree with you on two points while we are at it. 1) the Kiley McDaniel article was sort of a mess and 2) one of the muddled points in that mess was he made was similar to something you mentioned earlier in this thread -- there is some question whether front offices might be headed towards paralysis by analysis.

If prices fall on Donaldson because no one wants to be the sucker who overpays the aging veteran, it starts to make sense for Atlanta.

Paying him 30 million for 6 years just to get the possibility of three good ones is not a wise decision, but I do know that is not what you were advocating.

I agree with your overall points regarding expectations and age vis-à-vis Harper/Donaldson, and likewise lean towards your side of the argument concerning the feasibility/sensibility of the Braves signing Donaldson next offseason. But I have to quibble that Donaldson is a "lesser star"—maybe playing in Oakland and Toronto have hurt his celebrity, but in terms of production, he's a full-fledged superstar.

 

[Southcack77]

I agree with your overall points regarding expectations and age vis-à-vis Harper/Donaldson, and likewise lean towards your side of the argument concerning the feasibility/sensibility of the Braves signing Donaldson next offseason. But I have to quibble that Donaldson is a "lesser star"—maybe playing in Oakland and Toronto have hurt his celebrity, but in terms of production, he's a full-fledged superstar.

That's totally fair. I was trying to come up with the right phrase for the next tier under superstar, but you certainly are correct that 2015 and 2016 in particular were superstar level seasons.

I would put him one notch below the best and maybe part of that is his age and part of it well may be his being an AL player in smaller media markets.

 

[thewupk]

That's totally fair. I was trying to come up with the right phrase for the next tier under superstar, but you certainly are correct that 2015 and 2016 in particular were superstar level seasons.

I would put him one notch below the best and maybe part of that is his age and part of it well may be his being an AL player in smaller media markets.

That's certainly it. Production wise he's close to the top of most lists the past few years.