I suppose I misread, “if doesn't improve at all he's something like Kevin Pillar”, to mean something other than describing his low end projection.
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I suppose I misread, “if doesn't improve at all he's something like Kevin Pillar”, to mean something other than describing his low end projection.
sad but true
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I agree it was poorly written but I also doubt he meant it as you were describing (absolute floor of 3 WAR)
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think I agree with you but words matter. They especially matter when you write and/or communicate for a living.
Floor should mean floor. He could easily say a low end comp is Pillar. If he never hits he is probably Billy Hamilton.
We all get that floor doesn't totally mean floor. IF you look at prospect outcomes the easiest way to be correct the highest percentage of the time is to say the guy is going to be a 0-1 total WAR guy for his career. Most guys don't make it. But floor doesn't mean you hit better in MLB than you hit in A ball either.
It was a chat, though. I think intent is more important than wording in a chat.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Kiley didn’t actually use the word floor.
Pillar has been one of the very worst qualifying outfield hitters by wRC+ in each of the last three years.
Kiley may be saying he sees pache’s hit tool as good enough to perform at that level right now.
Obviously he might not be good enough to make the majors or have qualifying at bats, but kiley may be saying he doesn’t see that happening based on his tools right now.
Pillar has been one of the very worst qualifying outfield hitters by wRC+ in each of the last three years.
Kiley may be saying he sees pache’s hit tool as good enough to perform at that level right now.
Obviously he might not be good enough to make the majors or have qualifying at bats, but kiley may be saying he doesn’t see that happening based on his tools right now.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Pillar is actually rated #205 out of #232 qualifying players in wRC+ between 2015-2017.
but if i can't nitpick and criticize to the max then what has this all been about?
I think Pache's likely outcome is a lesser version of Ender. Same defense but a 90 WRC+ hitter. Hopefully he hits because if that develops we would be looking at a very good player with his defense and speed.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
We will see. I am not going to look up the numbers but I think Pache has a better track record at this point than Ender. I think he might be a better defender too. But I'd still deal him if we could get Yellich.
Allard didn't even make Klaw's list for just missed the top 100. What am I missing? I haven't seen anyone say he's a number 1. But there are a lot of future mid rotation guys in the Klaw top 100. He's way low on Allard and Riley compared to others and way high on Wentz, Anderson and Pache compared to others.
And a perfect replacement for Ender in a couple years.
It's not just Law, but all those guys seem to have "favorites" as well as guys they're just not sold on for varying reasons. Riley's always been one of those as far as Law's concerned - but there are others that have bones to pick with a couple guys that the other "experts" are high on as well. Law has just always been one of the last to be willing to change his mind once he's voiced an opinion on a prospect IMO - they really have to explode before he acknowledges improvement usually rather than show incremental improvement as Riley has.
I agree. Someone like that would be a good replacement for Ender. Even if he doesn't hit a lot he could still be a 2 WAR player due to his defense and base running. Hit him 8th and use him while he's cheap and move on. If the hitting does develop you could have a prime Michael Bourn on your hands.
We know you think every prospect will be an all-star but that's not always the case. Pache's ceiling is hitting better than Ender and being a Bourn type player in his prime. His most likely outcome is hitting less than Ender and being a good role player while he's cheap.
I think this way because he performed well at an exceptionally young age. I don't think he will be a good hitter but one that produces more than ender.
So you think Pache will be an all-star then?
All star is dependent on comparative performance so it's impossible to say. I do think he will beat out Ender by a few points in wRC+.
Law's lists are bad because they aren't consistent, as you have just pointed out.
He seems to project ultimate upside based on his own eye test, and then fails to properly account for proximity to the MLB level. As icing on the Terrible List Cake, he is unwilling to assimilate new information (like Riley's improved defense) into his rankings.
Pache could definitely end up a better hitter than Inciarte, but it's far from a sure, or even a probable, thing. I think if people thought Ender could hit the way he has, he wouldn't have been a Rule 5 guy. Now, just because people missed on him doesn't mean Pache can't hit better than that. But Ender's not-terrible offense has probably been a surprise to some teams.