EstebanBugatti
Arizona Fall Leaguer
Great, an extra $100k that they won't give a free agent.
Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans
- Thread starter Horsehide Harry
- Start date
Great, an extra $100k that they won't give a free agent.
Incredibly petty to go to arvitrarion over such a minor amount.
Deester11
Well-known member
On both sides.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I have to think they didn't know they were that close to each other. I don't see how, but I can't see them (either of them) drawing such a hard line for chump change in the baseball world... I mean Coppy was giving that out to every draftees great aunt that last two years...
With what each side submitted it was going to be hard for Miller to lose. Miller made 4.7 million last year and the DBacks submitted 4.7 million again. Players almost always get a raise in arbitration so the 4.9 million that Miller submitted was an easy win for him.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Hold on - it was from a Shoenfield listicle not in any way sourced, nor claiming to be sourced. It doesn’t mean anything.
In fact, Shoenfield said in the article that the Braves have money to spend, so that should be all that’s needed to know to disregard that article entirely.
Only because he doesn't read this board to get his information.
Wake up and smell the $106M opening day roster.
The Braves don’t have any more money to spend.
There isn't much excitement to talk about with regards to the Braves roster, but we can still hold out hope for some super bargain Mous signing to a heavily back loaded deal:
12:28
ATL: Should the braves be looking to pick up another prospect bat w/ all the pitching they have? Or should they wait to trade for an experienced bat when they are competing?
12:28
Travis Sawchik: They could sign 29-year-old Mike Moustakas for a massive discount later this spring
At some point he represents too much of a bargain to pass up. It will be fascinating to see if he becomes a good enough bargain to make the Braves abandon their 3B plans and snatch him up.
The Cubs ended up with Darvish for a fairly significant discount by waiting him out.
Spending on FAs might just become the next market inefficiency...
12:28
ATL: Should the braves be looking to pick up another prospect bat w/ all the pitching they have? Or should they wait to trade for an experienced bat when they are competing?
12:28
Travis Sawchik: They could sign 29-year-old Mike Moustakas for a massive discount later this spring
At some point he represents too much of a bargain to pass up. It will be fascinating to see if he becomes a good enough bargain to make the Braves abandon their 3B plans and snatch him up.
The Cubs ended up with Darvish for a fairly significant discount by waiting him out.
Spending on FAs might just become the next market inefficiency...
Going rate for a win is over $9M, and increasing every year of his deal. The Cubs will be hating the contract at the end (as is always the case), but it was a very solid deal for them.
Personally, I see their window beginning to close in 2-3 years, at which point they won't care about Darvish being an albatross.
The Cubs finally got their WS, and they are trying to push for 1-2 more. This was a very solid "win now" move.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There are also some escalators and an opt out in the contract. I'd say you have to squint pretty hard to see how the Cubs got much of a deal on this.
There haven't been enough big signings this off-season to say what the going rate for a win is. Carlos Santana got an AAV of 20M per year. If anything I'd expect him to be a little better than 2.5 wins per year the next three years.
Cozart got an AAV of 13M. That to me is one of the better signings this off-season. I think he'll average about 2 wins during the three years of the contract.
Cain got an AAV of 16M. And I think he'll be a bit better than 2 wins per year over the next five years.
So it is hard to make the case that the going rate for a win is over $8M this off-season. Of course the comps I've offered are hitters. We'll know more about how the Cubs did when some of the other pitchers sign.
As far as Mous goes (projected for 2.8 wins in 2018), here are all the teams projected to get less than 2 wins from 3B in 2018 as well as a quick note on their 3B situation:
Tigers 1.7 - rebuilding, young Candelario at 3B
Brewers 1.7 - have cash, but also have a young Travis Shaw at 3B they think is breaking out, need SP
Yankees 1.7 - trying to stay below the luxury tax threshold, have Andujar and Torres for 3B/2B
Marlins 1.6 - no cash, have Prado at 3B
Padres 1.5 - Chase Headley is in the way
Pirates 1.3 - no cash, have options like Harrison, Freese, Moran and SRod already on the roster
Rays 1.3 - no cash, just dumped Longoria for Arroyo
Braves 1.0 - almost no cash in 2018, lots of cash in 2019+, "seeing what they have" in Camargo, and watching Riley's progress
White Sox 0.9 - lots of cash, middle of rebuild, Burger is a college slugger who is likely to move quickly
Royals 0.2 - little cash, just kicking off a major rebuild, liable to do something dumb like sign Hosmer or Mous.
The Braves are literally the only team who isn't rebuilding with a need at 3B and any amount of cash to sign Mous.
Is Riley really worth passing up on a bargain for Mous? At 5/85, no thanks. But what about at ~$50M over 4 years with only $5M-$8M being paid in 2018?
Who else is going to offer Mous anything? Literally...anything?
Tigers 1.7 - rebuilding, young Candelario at 3B
Brewers 1.7 - have cash, but also have a young Travis Shaw at 3B they think is breaking out, need SP
Yankees 1.7 - trying to stay below the luxury tax threshold, have Andujar and Torres for 3B/2B
Marlins 1.6 - no cash, have Prado at 3B
Padres 1.5 - Chase Headley is in the way
Pirates 1.3 - no cash, have options like Harrison, Freese, Moran and SRod already on the roster
Rays 1.3 - no cash, just dumped Longoria for Arroyo
Braves 1.0 - almost no cash in 2018, lots of cash in 2019+, "seeing what they have" in Camargo, and watching Riley's progress
White Sox 0.9 - lots of cash, middle of rebuild, Burger is a college slugger who is likely to move quickly
Royals 0.2 - little cash, just kicking off a major rebuild, liable to do something dumb like sign Hosmer or Mous.
The Braves are literally the only team who isn't rebuilding with a need at 3B and any amount of cash to sign Mous.
Is Riley really worth passing up on a bargain for Mous? At 5/85, no thanks. But what about at ~$50M over 4 years with only $5M-$8M being paid in 2018?
Who else is going to offer Mous anything? Literally...anything?
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I would backload a higher AAV in 2019 and 2020 if we could get him to sign for 3 years.
Frazier took about 50% less than he was projected to get. Darvish took about a 25% discount.
Mous was projected at $85M, so a comparable discount to Frazier would be ~$40M. A comparable discount to Darvish would be ~$65M.
Considering Darvish had quite a few suitors and Mous has practically zero suitors, I think it's safe to expect him to fall closer to Frazier's 50% discount than Darvish's 25% discount.
So yeah, 3/40 paid as 6-17-17 might be plausible, and would represent a tremendous bargain for the Braves. Maybe tack on another $20M option with a $2M buyout or something similar.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
If the bargain becomes too great you could see one of the large market clubs like the Yankees jump in and severely backload the deal. They are staying under the tax threshold this year. Putting Mous between Stanton and Judge could make for a scary lineup over the next 3 or so years.
Everyone seems to believe that they will break the bank next year on either Harper or Machado. But both those guys are RH as is Stanton and Judge (and Sanchez). The LH bats the Yanks have are Gregorius, Gardner, Byrd aren't very scary and don't figure to be long term (unless Byrd turns it around).
The Orioles would be smart to sign him if he comes at a discount. If they aren't moving Manny, it would make sense to go for it all this year. DH Moose this year and let him take over for Manny when he leaves for FA.
Luxury tax is based on AAV I'm pretty sure. So backloading wouldn't work. I could be wrong though.
You are correct.
While the Yankees seem set on Andujar/Torres at 3B/2B, there is obviously a price point where they will jump in too. If they are getting under the tax line so they can splurge on Machado, getting Mous at an extreme bargain makes getting Machado a non-issue.
The Braves probably can't afford Mous at a price where they wouldn't be outbid by a contender, but at least it's something worth talking about during the most boring Braves offseason in history.