Regardless of the exact number, it's a terrible sign that payroll went down the year after park opened
Who disagrees with that?
I won't go so far as to say it's "a terrible sign", but I certainly wouldn't say I expected it to do so (by any stretch) either.
I don't think anyone can make that determination until we see what they do NEXT winter since none of us are privy to "the plan" and are honestly just guessing - whether those guesses seem to make some sense right now (or not).
If you consider that there wasn't one single soul (including those with the brightest of bright outlooks) that believed there was the slightest chance the Braves could unload Kemp without eating at least half his contract, it's not much of a stretch to imagine the plan completely changed on the fly when that opportunity arose. Most of us have always doubted that the organization would ever be big players on the free-agent market as long as corporate ownership is in place. If you consider the 2018 Kemp and Gonzalez salaries a "wash" (not exactly, but close enough for this exercise), AA "added" a $10 million salary in McCarthy and a $16 million salary in Kazmir. That was somewhere I don't think anyone imagined the money that was paid Garcia/Dickey/Colon was going to be used in 2018.
In essence, AA's spent $6 million less on starting Pitchers this year than Coppy spent last year - even though you can make the argument that it was time to throw Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, Sims, (and to a lesser extent Wisler and Blair) to the wolves rather than use those resources that way. Wright, Soroka, Allard, Anderson, and others are going to start breathing down their necks as early as midseason, so it's time to find out who you want to keep instead of tucking that many of them away at Gwinnett and/or Mississippi. It's not like things are going to be any less crowded a year from now (unless you trade several young arms) once Touki, Wentz, Wilson, Davidson, and others start climbing the ladder and Weigel hopefully returns to health.
If that $32 million that Garcia/Dickey/Colon made had been spent on Moustakas/Headley/Frazier and Kemp was still in LF rather than the two Pitchers from the Dodgers, no one would be making a big deal about payroll - you'd have expected it to go down because you were using all the young arms in the rotation.
Maybe the plan changed when they saw the opportunity to clear all that money from the 2019 books and they really are going to try to play in the deep end of the pool with Donaldson or someone next winter - or they intend to try to lock Albies and Acuna (and possibly others) up to long deals soon - who knows?
I won't consider it "a terrible sign" until something like that doesn't happen - but if it doesn't, it's no doubt time to start worrying.