Fangraphs Top 32 Braves Prospects
- Thread starter CJ9
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I...... don't get this post.....
While I agree they are clearly bunched together just below Acuna, I'm also having reservations that Wright might be #3 of that trio.
Gohara showed more than a 60 grade fastball in 2017. He was the hardest throwing LH SP in the game, and the only SP who threw harder was Severino. That is clearly a 70 grade fastball that was thrown late in the year after he had already blew by his previous high in innings.
Soroka's control grade of 45 present and 55 future is also a bit conservative. I think it's pretty obvious he profiles as a guy with 60+ future command, which will allow his arsenal of average or better pitches play up.
clv gonna clv.
Kiley is clearly pimping his tools (for example, he writes about his 70 grade curve while the table lists it as 65), but I think a lot of us (me included) forget how young he is. Guys like Newk and Fried may be too old to have a very good chance at improving their control, but Touki is not, and I think he may get lumped in with the older guys a bit unfairly when we talk about guys who can't throw strikes.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I agree with this 100%... I think they are very close but I would put Wright behind Soroka and Gohara right now. Especially considering what we have seen from Soroka this spring. If he really is sitting in the mid 90s with that 2 seam/sinker then he has a chance to be a really really good 2. Maybe even a 1, but I don't like predicting that for anyone. I love Wright and I think he has a chance to be fantastic, but I've just seen more from Soroka and Gohara at this point
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Agreed with the consensus here on Wright/Gohara/Soroka. I also expect Waters and Weigel to be much higher on this list by the end of the season than they are now.
It's discouraging to see a very low hit tool grade on virtually every position prospect. I hope the new hitting instruction is able to improve that along with the obvious focus on launch angle.
It's discouraging to see a very low hit tool grade on virtually every position prospect. I hope the new hitting instruction is able to improve that along with the obvious focus on launch angle.
I agree with his assessment of Fried, though I think his CU is closer to a 60 than a 70:
"which gets grades as high as a 70 from scouts on the 20-80 scale. His fastball normally sits 90-94 and hits 97 mph while his changeup is above average"
What Kiley doesn't mention is the horrid flatness of Fried's fastball due to an extremely low spin rate. We know for a fact the Dodgers are big on spin rate, so hopefully AA is able to identify that and either dump Fried to recoup any value he has left, or have him adopt a sinker that will benefit from the low spin rate.
"which gets grades as high as a 70 from scouts on the 20-80 scale. His fastball normally sits 90-94 and hits 97 mph while his changeup is above average"
What Kiley doesn't mention is the horrid flatness of Fried's fastball due to an extremely low spin rate. We know for a fact the Dodgers are big on spin rate, so hopefully AA is able to identify that and either dump Fried to recoup any value he has left, or have him adopt a sinker that will benefit from the low spin rate.
Kiley did an excellent job explaining Allard's precipitous fall in the rankings. He profiles now as a back end SP who may not ever stick at the MLB level...the dreaded AAAA guy.
Certainly not the "top 20 guy by the end of next year" a certain cheerleader who posts here often predicts.
Certainly not the "top 20 guy by the end of next year" a certain cheerleader who posts here often predicts.
I completely agree with their grades on Minter's 60+ FA (I think it's closer to a 70 grade) and 60+ SL (though I would classify it as a FC).
The blurb on Minter is extremely interesting:
"Minter’s success is due in large part to the flat plane he creates to the plate: he’s short, has a low slot, throws a four-seam with some rise on it, and often locates it up in the strike zone. For a power hitter with a lofted path trying to hit a very flat pitch, there’s very little space where those two planes overlap, thus a plus fastball plays even better."
Kiley cites the rise of Minter's fastball allowing it to play up (which is why I have it as a 70 while they say 60/65), but refers to it as "flat".
This is a difference in terminology. When tools like pitchfx report vertical movement on a pitch, it is reported as movement compared to a pitch with zero magnus force on it (as if it were in a vacuum). Any pitch with any amount of backspin will "rise" compared to a pitch with zero magnus force acting on it. This is why a good sinker still has 2"-5" of "rise"...it's just much less "rise" than a good 4-seamer (9"-11").
Minter gets about 10" of rise on his fastball, which is 55/60 grade rise compared to all other MLB FAs.
On the other side of the coin, Fried only gets about 7" of rise on his 4-seamer. That is 35 grade compared to MLB FAs, and 40 grade for MLB sinkers. It's right in that danger zone between a sinker and 4-seamer, and is why it always gets hammered despite being thrown 93 MPH. That is what we call a "flat pitch", though that's admittedly not the best term to use.
While no pitcher actually throws a pitch that really rises (or even stays completely flat), that's just how the terminology evolved.
The blurb on Minter is extremely interesting:
"Minter’s success is due in large part to the flat plane he creates to the plate: he’s short, has a low slot, throws a four-seam with some rise on it, and often locates it up in the strike zone. For a power hitter with a lofted path trying to hit a very flat pitch, there’s very little space where those two planes overlap, thus a plus fastball plays even better."
Kiley cites the rise of Minter's fastball allowing it to play up (which is why I have it as a 70 while they say 60/65), but refers to it as "flat".
This is a difference in terminology. When tools like pitchfx report vertical movement on a pitch, it is reported as movement compared to a pitch with zero magnus force on it (as if it were in a vacuum). Any pitch with any amount of backspin will "rise" compared to a pitch with zero magnus force acting on it. This is why a good sinker still has 2"-5" of "rise"...it's just much less "rise" than a good 4-seamer (9"-11").
Minter gets about 10" of rise on his fastball, which is 55/60 grade rise compared to all other MLB FAs.
On the other side of the coin, Fried only gets about 7" of rise on his 4-seamer. That is 35 grade compared to MLB FAs, and 40 grade for MLB sinkers. It's right in that danger zone between a sinker and 4-seamer, and is why it always gets hammered despite being thrown 93 MPH. That is what we call a "flat pitch", though that's admittedly not the best term to use.
While no pitcher actually throws a pitch that really rises (or even stays completely flat), that's just how the terminology evolved.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
Considering the FVs make many of the positions more or less fluid, I’m good with this list.
12:22
Drew: Out of Wright/Soroka/Gohara/Anderson/Allard/Fried/Wentz/Touki, how many average or better starters do the Braves get? What number do they have to get from that group for it to be considered a success?
12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: 4 and two great ‘pen arms
12:30
K26dp: Thanks for the Braves list. You mention a couple times the Braves new hitting coordinator. Who is that, and what difference in philosophy do you think he brings?
12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Mike Brumley. Has been with LAD, CHC, SEA in the past. Kiley might know more about specific philosophies.
1:01
Buff: You and Kiley seem to be on the low side of Austin Riley’s fielding ability, giving him a future grade of 45 and a “chance” of staying at third. Can you expound on how good you think that chance is?
1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: 50%, I was impressed by how he looked in the Fall League compared to how he looked in the past, but among actual big league 3B he’s not very good over there
Drew: Out of Wright/Soroka/Gohara/Anderson/Allard/Fried/Wentz/Touki, how many average or better starters do the Braves get? What number do they have to get from that group for it to be considered a success?
12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: 4 and two great ‘pen arms
12:30
K26dp: Thanks for the Braves list. You mention a couple times the Braves new hitting coordinator. Who is that, and what difference in philosophy do you think he brings?
12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Mike Brumley. Has been with LAD, CHC, SEA in the past. Kiley might know more about specific philosophies.
1:01
Buff: You and Kiley seem to be on the low side of Austin Riley’s fielding ability, giving him a future grade of 45 and a “chance” of staying at third. Can you expound on how good you think that chance is?
1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: 50%, I was impressed by how he looked in the Fall League compared to how he looked in the past, but among actual big league 3B he’s not very good over there