Crowdsourcing help re Mets

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
A young man I know is interviewing with the Mets front office. The question is how would you approach the 2018-2019 off-season if you were running the Mets.

Any thoughts.

I know this verges on treason, but please overlook that aspect.
 
So much depends on the performance of Harvey and matz this year that's it's hard to say. The pendulum can swing from ready to win a world series to needing a complete tear down.
 
To me DeGrom and Syndegaard are the two most special players they have. So I would focus on pros and cons of extenting them. Those two give the Mets a punchers chance in any short series. So it is worth it for them to fight for an extra win or two just to make the wild card.
 
I would suggest he say that Bernie Madoff has some great investment ideas and that Omar Minaya was the greatest GM in the history of the game.
 
nsacpi said:
To me DeGrom and Syndegaard are the two most special players they have. So I would focus on pros and cons of extenting them. Those two give the Mets a punchers chance in any short series. So it is worth it for them to fight for an extra win or two just to make the wild card.
Click to expand...

That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.
 
thethe said:
That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.
Click to expand...

I think Smith is one to focus on...what they do next offseason will turn in part on how he develops
 
First step he needs to do is figure out the guaranteed money on the books for 2019, and then get arbitration projections for everyone else. That data can be found at Cots or BRef, and he will have to look up some comps to understand roughly how the arbitration guys will be paid. Do NOT say PlayerA will make ~$3M...say PlayerA will make $2.76M-$3.21M, and be ready to show the comps that allowed him to arrive at those values. Arb is all about comps to other similar players, so go find those players.

Next step will be to project WAR values for every player. He can slurp that info from FG, but if he has the skills to code up a projection system, this is where he can shine in the eyes of a FO. If he can write a full stack piece of software (meaning UI to back-end to database), he will be showing a full range of skills. When I am evaluating a software guy, I look less at the languages/tools he uses (Python vs C#, Java vs ASPX, SQL vs NoSQL, Unity vs Unreal, etc) and more for the skills to properly architect a solution. A good software guy can pick up a new language or tool set very quickly.

Third step will be to comb through info about other teams to find potential trade targets. For example, the Tigers will be trading Fulmer. The Braves may want to add a TOR pitcher. Identify teams that match up in trades (either during a rebuild or a build up), and then identify players from those teams the Mets could target. Unless he has played at a high level, his eyeball test scouting opinion based on watching games on Fox Sports NY will carry zero weight. He should present a list of potential targets so the guys with skill in evaluating these players can focus on them.

Once he has the projected payroll, the projected production from all the controlled players, a list of available FAs, a list of potential trade targets, and the Mets likely payroll cap (around $130M-$150M), he can start to build a plan. I would suggest building 2-3 plans, a "win-now" plan, a "sustained winning plan", and a long term "rebuild plan". Be ready to justify all decisions with data based on things like aging curves and surplus value.

The final thing I would do is try to come up with something "new". Everything mentioned above is just collecting data from other sources. If he can identify something that nobody has yet in the public sphere, he will show he can innovate. For example, determining Fried needs to throw a 2-seamer, suggesting Yandy Diaz is a prime launch angle adjustment candidate, or the correlations I found between xwOBA-xOBA to speed/handedness/spray skills are the kinds of things I would try to highlight if I were interviewing with the Braves.
 
thethe said:
That's the thing though. If you can add another special pitcher to that mix they are world series ccontenders immediately. Conforto if he can stay on the field has the feel of a 4-6 win player. His bat is special.

Other than that they don't have much long term at the major league level. Rosario hit in the minors but was over matched in his first action and from the looks of it the mets are not in love with smith and that may have to do with off the field issues.
Click to expand...

This is the exact kind of presentation that will get him laughed out of an interview. It's all subjective from someone with zero experience evaluating players, so their subjective opinion holds zero weight.

If he goes in there and says, "I just think soandso is special" he will not get the job. FOs do not operate that way anymore.
 
I imagine next year's starting pitching market to be hot considering the dearth of quality FA pitchers available. The best pitcher available is Gio, and after him, it's gets pretty icky. Basically a bunch of guys who were good 3 years ago, but have seen injuries and age take their toll.

With that being said, I would capitalize on this markey by making Snydergaard available, but I would try to send him to an AL team. They should be able to get back AT LEAST as much as Sale brought back, if not more. A deal to the Red Sox centered around Groome and Jackie Bradley Jr would be something I would push for.

Next, I would sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4 year deal valued at 20 million per year.
 
Enscheff said:
This is the exact kind of presentation that will get him laughed out of an interview. It's all subjective from someone with zero experience evaluating players, so their subjective opinion holds zero weight.

If he goes in there and says, "I just think soandso is special" he will not get the job. FOs do not operate that way anymore.
Click to expand...

Hey...you're the guy I wanted some ideas from...also it seems the question is a bit broader in the sense that it wants an analysis of what the 2018 off-season implies for how the market might go next year...this is a big question I think all teams are grappling with
 
There is a second question which is much more technical. It has a spreadsheet of spin rates, velocity and movement and wants a "creative" analysis.

Gives some insight into how teams think these days.
 
Enscheff said:
First step he needs to do is figure out the guaranteed money on the books for 2019, and then get arbitration projections for everyone else. That data can be found at Cots or BRef, and he will have to look up some comps to understand roughly how the arbitration guys will be paid. Do NOT say PlayerA will make ~$3M...say PlayerA will make $2.76M-$3.21M, and be ready to show the comps that allowed him to arrive at those values. Arb is all about comps to other similar players, so go find those players.

Next step will be to project WAR values for every player. He can slurp that info from FG, but if he has the skills to code up a projection system, this is where he can shine in the eyes of a FO. If he can write a full stack piece of software (meaning UI to back-end to database), he will be showing a full range of skills. When I am evaluating a software guy, I look less at the languages/tools he uses (Python vs C#, Java vs ASPX, SQL vs NoSQL, Unity vs Unreal, etc) and more for the skills to properly architect a solution. A good software guy can pick up a new language or tool set very quickly.

Third step will be to comb through info about other teams to find potential trade targets. For example, the Tigers will be trading Fulmer. The Braves may want to add a TOR pitcher. Identify teams that match up in trades (either during a rebuild or a build up), and then identify players from those teams the Mets could target. Unless he has played at a high level, his eyeball test scouting opinion based on watching games on Fox Sports NY will carry zero weight. He should present a list of potential targets so the guys with skill in evaluating these players can focus on them.

Once he has the projected payroll, the projected production from all the controlled players, a list of available FAs, a list of potential trade targets, and the Mets likely payroll cap (around $130M-$150M), he can start to build a plan. I would suggest building 2-3 plans, a "win-now" plan, a "sustained winning plan", and a long term "rebuild plan". Be ready to justify all decisions with data based on things like aging curves and surplus value.

The final thing I would do is try to come up with something "new". Everything mentioned above is just collecting data from other sources. If he can identify something that nobody has yet in the public sphere, he will show he can innovate. For example, determining Fried needs to throw a 2-seamer, suggesting Yandy Diaz is a prime launch angle adjustment candidate, or the correlations I found between xwOBA-xOBA to speed/handedness/spray skills are the kinds of things I would try to highlight if I were interviewing with the Braves.
Click to expand...

fantastic...i will send this post to him
 
Carp said:
I imagine next year's starting pitching market to be hot considering the dearth of quality FA pitchers available. The best pitcher available is Gio, and after him, it's gets pretty icky. Basically a bunch of guys who were good 3 years ago, but have seen injuries and age take their toll.

With that being said, I would capitalize on this markey by making Snydergaard available, but I would try to send him to an AL team. They should be able to get back AT LEAST as much as Sale brought back, if not more. A deal to the Red Sox centered around Groome and Jackie Bradley Jr would be something I would push for.

Next, I would sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4 year deal valued at 20 million per year.
Click to expand...

Trading Syndergaard is an outside the box idea for sure. I didn't consider it. But if you are right about the pitching market it might be worth doing an analysis of what he would bring.
 
nsacpi said:
There is a second question which is much more technical. It has a spreadsheet of spin rates, velocity and movement and wants a "creative" analysis.

Gives some insight into how teams think these days.
Click to expand...

This is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about when I said come up with something "new". If the data is present, he can use vector math to determine spin components in the X/Y/Z planes.

If I had that data, personally, I would be looking at how guys with similar spin rates get different movements. I know it has to do with spin axis, but I would identify which pitchers are not getting as much movement as they should based on comparable spin rates. I would create a "spin efficiency" statistic to rank them. Then, I would suggest how guys with low spin efficiency could alter their spin axes (most likely by arm angle alterations).

Does he know what data is present in the spreadsheet? If so we can better assist in coming up with avenues to analyse it.
 
Mods. We might want to lock this thread for a few hours. Need to give cheff sometime to cool down. We don’t want him to get too worked up over this topic.
 
Enscheff said:
This is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about when I said come up with something "new". If the data is present, he can use vector math to determine spin components in the X/Y/Z planes.

If I had that data, personally, I would be looking at how guys with similar spin rates get different movements. I know it has to do with spin axis, but I would identify which pitchers are not getting as much movement as they should based on comparable spin rates. I would create a "spin efficiency" statistic to rank them. Then, I would suggest how guys with low spin efficiency could alter their spin axes (most likely by arm angle alterations).

Does he know what data is present in the spreadsheet? If so we can better assist in coming up with avenues to analyse it.
Click to expand...

The spreadsheet also has data on outcomes. How hard the ball was hit.

So I suggested a couple things:

1) Use all of this to generate a measure of when a pitcher is losing it.

2) I thought also it would be useful to look at consistency by inning (variance) of the different measures.

3) Look at whether the pitcher is able to step it up depending on the situation (runner in scoring position) or facing the other team's best hitter.

The data is basically for one game, both starting pitchers.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Mods. We might want to lock this thread for a few hours. Need to give cheff sometime to cool down. We don’t want him to get too worked up over this topic.
Click to expand...

Hey, this is my last day at work before 10 days in FL/GA, and I have my plate completely cleared.

I'm free all day!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top