Could the Braves win 90 games this season?

Knucksie said:
The Twins went "worst to first" also in that same season. Of course it's not unheard of but it was not predictable. Everybody picked them to be in last place again. Several players had career years, which were equally not predictable.
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if these rare events were more easily predictable they wouldn't be so remarkable...the Cubs improved a lot in 2016 but everyone saw that one coming
 
Braves will be a top half run producer, I think.

To me its always been about what they get out of the rotation. My prediction would be it would be average or below average.

The real opportunity for picking up unexpected wins would be *starting pitchers* breaking out.
 
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Southcack77 said:
Braves will be a top half run producer, I think.

To me its always been about what they get out of the rotation. My prediction would be it would be average or below average.

The real opportunity for picking up unexpected wins would be players breaking out.
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I think the pitching is more likely to be above league average...people are overreacting to a very lucky streak by our hitters...our lineup is below average imo
 
nsacpi said:
I think the pitching is more likely to be above league average...people are overreacting to a very lucky streak by our hitters...our lineup is below average imo
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I think Teheran, McCarthy, and Sanchez should be expected to be pretty tepid at best, though any of them could outperform.

Newcomb and Gohara in my view probably should be expected to be below average, though either could certainly make a leap and do better.

Folty has a big ceiling, but was relatively bad last year.

.....

Maybe you get five guys to really exceed what I think is most likely, but its not an especially good group I don't think absent big breakouts.
 
nsacpi said:
I think the pitching is more likely to be above league average...people are overreacting to a very lucky streak by our hitters...our lineup is below average imo
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Hitting, I just think the top 6 are going to be pretty strong. Inciarte, Albies, Freeman could be as good a first three as almost anyone. Or not. I just think they'll end up top half overall.

I fully expect bottom to drop out from Flaherty, Culbertson, Camargo, Bourjous, Lane Adams, etc.

I kind of believe in Tucker, Acuna in LF. I sort of believe in Markakis to be slightly better than last year. Mississippi's jaw is going to drop, but I think Swanson will be a good bit better than the worst hitting position player in the NL this year. This is probably unrealistic, but I think he'll be average or above overall.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think Teheran, McCarthy, and Sanchez should be expected to be pretty tepid at best, though any of them could outperform.

Newcomb and Gohara in my view probably should be expected to be below average, though either could certainly make a leap and do better.

Folty has a big ceiling, but was relatively bad last year.

.....

Maybe you get five guys to really exceed what I think is most likely, but its not an especially good group I don't think absent big breakouts.
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If Gohara is healthy there is no way he is below average. He is the most talented pitcher with MLB innings the Braves have.
 
Super said:
I think what he was saying is, yeah there's going to be regression from Tucker and Markakis and Flaherty, but the regression won't be as large if/when Acuna and Camargo are playing.
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Correct. Team performance is an aggregate of individual performances. When the roster changes some guys do better, and some worse, but the affect on the team is tough to predict unless you know who will be on the roster later. We have some ideas, but there will be more changes we don't yet know about.
 
any lineup with guys like Markakis, Suzuki and Flowers hitting in the middle of the order is likely to be below average
 
nsacpi said:
any lineup with guys like Markakis, Suzuki and Flowers hitting in the middle of the order is likely to be below average
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Flowers was 110 wRC+ in 2016 and 120 wRC+ in 2017.

Suzuki was at 129 wRC+ with a BABIP of .268 so who knows. I'd tend to think that will be a big outlier though.

Markakis figures to be slightly below average wRC+ but should get on base. one day, maybe, he won't be hitting in a power spot in the order.

......

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Acuna/Tucker
Flowers/Suzuki
Markakis
Swanson
Flaherty / Camargo / etc

I don't think that's too bad. Granted much of that is based on the first three being awesome and to some extent Acuna and Tucker being pretty awesome and the catchers not regressing too much and Swanson being average or better.

I just think that getting rid of all those A. Garcia, R. Ruiz, J. Peterson, D. Santana, and league worst version of Swanson, at bats will help a good bit. The Braves will bat some guys who can't hit a fair number of times this year, but I don't think in nearly as many appearances. Could end up being wrong.
 
Enscheff said:
If Gohara is healthy there is no way he is below average. He is the most talented pitcher with MLB innings the Braves have.
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Talented perhaps. performance, we will see. I don't have great faith in his health and still worry about walks and teams picking on him as they scout his pitches.

But I also view him as a major breakout candidate for the reasons you mention.
 
Southcack77 said:
Flowers was 110 wRC+ in 2016 and 120 wRC+ in 2017.

Suzuki was at 129 wRC+ with a BABIP of .268 so who knows. I'd tend to think that will be a big outlier though.

Markakis figures to be slightly below average wRC+ but should get on base. one day, maybe, he won't be hitting in a power spot in the order.

......

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Acuna/Tucker
Flowers/Suzuki
Markakis
Swanson
Flaherty / Camargo / etc

I don't think that's too bad. Granted much of that is based on the first three being awesome and to some extent Acuna and Tucker being pretty awesome and the catchers not regressing too much and Swanson being average or better.

I just think that getting rid of all those A. Garcia, R. Ruiz, J. Peterson, D. Santana, and league worst version of Swanson, at bats will help a good bit. The Braves will bat some guys who can't hit a fair number of times this year, but I don't think in nearly as many appearances. Could end up being wrong.
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Great. Now take a look at the middle of the orders for the best lineups.

Post those wRC+ values.

I'll wait.
 
In 2017, the average 2-5 hitters in the "good" NL lineups posted an OPS of .813.

How many guys do the Braves have that project to be middle of the order hitters? One. Freddie Freeman.

I'll agree with nsacpi...any order with Markakis, Suzuki and Flowers making up the heart of it won't be "good".
 
Enscheff said:
In 2017, the average 2-5 hitters in the "good" NL lineups posted an OPS of .813.

How many guys do the Braves have that project to be middle of the order hitters? One. Freddie Freeman.

I'll agree with nsacpi...any order with Markakis, Suzuki and Flowers making up the heart of it won't be "good".
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If that means you do not believe that the Braves will be 15th or above in runs scored then we are in mild disagreement.
 
Freeman should easily be .900+, and I think the team will have a good number of guys around ~.750 (Albies, Acuña, Flowers, Swanson), and a couple more who should be around .700 (Inciarte, Kakes). I still think the rotation stands to be the weaker link.
 
Phil
2:22 Braves off to a hot start. If they keep tearing the cover off the ball could a wild card berth be realistically in play?
Tim Dierkes
2:24 I'm going to surprise myself and say yes. They'd basically have to outplay their projection by 10 games. I find that unlikely but not out of the question, especially with powder dry for midseason additions, and no Acuna yet. That said...Markakis, Preston Tucker, Ryan Flaherty, I think these are all below-average hitters on nice little 30-40 PA runs. But for Freeman to win an MVP, Swanson and Albies to fully break out, Acuna to come up and mash, I could see it.
 
My thought is Flaherty and Markakis aren't real (Markakis as a bat is real, but Markakis with power isn't). Tucker is a maybe, but it might just be as a platoon bat (on the good side to be, though). But in Flaherty's case, he could be replaced soon anyway (however then we have Camargo, who we have all discussed BABIP with too).
 
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