What's Wrong with Julio? (A Glimmer of Hope)

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
OK, we all know that Teheran's velocity is down 2-3 mph. That is not good news. However, taking a look at the movement compenents of his pitches shows a glimmer of hope.

2017 FA: 91.9 mph, 4.8" HMov, 8.0" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 FA: 89.7 mph, 3.4" HMov, 7.9" VMov, Grade 30 overall, unusable

2017 SI: 91.8 mph, 9.3" HMov, 4.5" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 55 overall, above average
2018 SI: 89.0 mph, 9.2" HMov, 3.6" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 45 overall, below average

2017 CU: 73.9 mph, 6.3" HMov, -2.3" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 CU: 71.6 mph, 7.9" HMov, -3.0" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average

2017 SL: 83.1 mph, 1.1" HMov, 2.5" VMov, Grade 45 overall, below average
2018 SL: 79.3 mph, 3.2" HMov, 0.1" VMov, Grade 55 overall, above average

2017 CH: 9.0 mph delta, 7.5" HMov, 5.7" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average
2018 CH: 8.3 mph delta, 8.4" HMov, 4.7 VMov, Grade 55, above average

The movement on all his off speed pitches has increased. His CU is curving more. His SL is sliding more. His CH is fading more.

The only problem is the missing 2-3 mph on everything, especially the FA/SI. That missing velocity is making both of his fastballs below average, and the FA is completely unusable. A pitcher needs a FA or SI as the foundation of their arsenal that everything else works off, and Teheran does not possess an MLB-quality FA/SI right now. He is currently not an MLB-quality pitcher because of it.

If Teheran can get the FA/SI velocity back up to the usual 91-92 range, the added movement he found on his breaking balls could allow him to right the ship this season and back to being a solid #3.

However, if that increased velocity comes with decreased movement on his off speed pitches, he will still be the 4/5 guy he was last season. That's better than what he is right now though...which is a pitcher who doesn't belong in an MLB rotation.
 
Additionally, it looks like the talk about "finding his slider" is backed up by the numbers. Not only is he getting more movement on the pitch, he has also notably increased the spin rate on it.

2017 SL Spin Rate: 2452 rpm
2018 SL Spin Rate: 2556 rpm

He was in the top third in SL spin rate in 2017, but he is in the top quintile so far in 2018.

That is a real measurable increase in a player's skill. Now he just needs the FA/SI velocity to come back. If it doesn't...he's done.
 
I wonder if he could still be viable without the velocity increase if he just abandoned the 4 seam and went primarily with the sinker as his fastball? It would still be below average, but with 3 above average secondary offerings could he still be a viable 4 or something?
 
BeanieAntics said:
I wonder if he could still be viable without the velocity increase if he just abandoned the 4 seam and went primarily with the sinker as his fastball? It would still be below average, but with 3 above average secondary offerings could he still be a viable 4 or something?
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Probably. He has historically used his pitches roughly as...

FA: 40%+
SI: ~20%
CH: ~8%
SL: ~20%
CU: ~10%

He throws the below average FA way too much, and he always has. He has dropped his usage of it to a career low 37.4% in 2018, but it needs to be much lower.
 
Teheran showed some positive signs in his last start.

FA velocity up a tick from 89.5 to 90.3.

SI velocity up a tick from 88.8 to 89.8.

Of his 96 pitches, only 24 (25%) were FAs, 29 (30%) were SIs, 28 (29%) were SLs, 11 (11%) were CHs, and 4 (4%) were CUs.

He did exactly as I sugggested: cut the FA rate way down, and threw many more SI/SL/CH. Unsurprisingly, he was much more effective with that pitch mix. Let's hope he keeps it up and the velocity continues to creep back up over the next few starts.
 
He looked very good. Honestly, the runs he gave up were just the victim of CJ Buckner and bad defense (imo) by Flaherty.

He did get a bit lucky at other times last night, but overall he pitched well and had nice movement on his pitches.
 
Tapate50 said:
Its early. The velo could bounce back a tick or two. Really needs to be 91+
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FWIW, his velo usually ticks up as the weather breaks and turns warmer - not a huge amount, but a little.

Not that that gives us a ton of hope since what seems to get hammered so much in SunTrust are the hangers he constantly throws.
 
The data shows the first 2 games were the worst velocity Teheran has ever started a season with. Luckily, he seems to have mostly bounced back. He still needs to throw the FA less than his career rate.

iQT5kBU.jpg
 
I think the “kick Julio out of the rotation” takes after the first game were a tad premature, though he’s definitely not an ace. I would probably kick Sanchez out and move him to the bullpen when Gohara is ready
 
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Managuarantano's Volunteers said:
I think the “kick Julio out of the rotation” takes after the first game were a tad premature, though he’s definitely not an ace. I would probably kick Sanchez out and move him to the bullpen when Gohara is ready
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This board is very good at jumping to wildly incorrect conclusions based off a very small amount of data.

Remember when MAdams was suddenly so good he dramatically increased his trade value, and getting his bat in the lineup necessitated moving Freeman to 3B? Remember when I said over and over that MAdams was simply having unsustainable good luck on fly balls?

In his second start of 2018 Newk got an aggressive Rockies lineup to swing at many of his FAs up and out of the zone, so now folks are excited about him...a single start after saying he sucks based on his first start of 2018. In the span of 1 week, Newk went from being terrible to being a TOR guy.

It's the same thing around here...over and over and over and over.
 
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Enscheff said:
This board is very good at jumping to wildly incorrect conclusions based off a very small amount of data.

Remember when MAdams was suddenly so good he dramatically increased his trade value, and getting his bat in the lineup necessitated moving Freeman to 3B? Remember when I said over and over that MAdams was simply having unsustainable good luck on fly balls?

In his second start of 2018 Newk got an aggressive Rockies lineup to swing at many of his FAs up and out of the zone, so now folks are excited about him...a single start after saying he sucks based on his first start of 2018. In the span of 1 week, Newk went from being terrible to being a TOR guy.

It's the same thing around here...over and over and over and over.
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Don't worry about it so much, it is not going to change, partner.

Just keep doing what you are doing because you are quite damn good at it. The distractions that people post takes you off your game so don't let them get to you. The less you worry about them, the more great stuff we get from you.
 
What’s wrong with him is he’s still on the team. Should have dealt him long ago. May be able to get a quad A reliever for him now
 
Julio definitely on tonight. Some of the best movement on his pitches that I've seen in a while. And a home start to boot. Very encouraging.
 
Enscheff said:
I will post his pitch usage when it’s available. It will be interesting to see how many FAs he threw.
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I think you nailed it.. seemed to be throwing more moving pitches... mixed the change in enough to keep guys off the 4 seamer. Slider movement was excellent.
 
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