What's Wrong with Julio? (A Glimmer of Hope)

Agree that the four-seamer is pretty much a "spot" pitch for him now, but if it's in anyone's sweet zone, you might as well put a postage stamp on it. I've always admired his competitiveness, so maybe he can learn to pitch backwards and have some measure of success.
 
Enscheff said:
I will post his pitch usage when it’s available. It will be interesting to see how many FAs he threw.
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Fangraphs had him at 51% fastballs which was even less than his last time against Washington. Slider was at 30% with both the curve and change at 9%

Fastball also averaged 88.7 mph last night which actually is the lowest of the year so far.
 
thewupk said:
Fangraphs had him at 51% fastballs which was even less than his last time against Washington. Slider was at 30% with both the curve and change at 9%

Fastball also averaged 88.7 mph last night which actually is the lowest of the year so far.
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From the Game Day broadcast that I followed, there were more 2-seam fastballs as opposed to 4-seam fastballs. Herrera's HR was on a four-seamer. When Teheran throws his four-seamer, it's going to have to be up in the eyes so a guy is chasing out of the zone. It appears that if his four-seamer is in the strike zone, it gets tattooed more than Peter Moylan.
 
50PoundHead said:
From the Game Day broadcast that I followed, there were more 2-seam fastballs as opposed to 4-seam fastballs. Herrera's HR was on a four-seamer. When Teheran throws his four-seamer, it's going to have to be up in the eyes so a guy is chasing out of the zone. It appears that if his four-seamer is in the strike zone, it gets tattooed more than Peter Moylan.
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You're probably right. The last two games he's seem to found something with his slider so hopefully it can continue.
 
For context:

He has historically used his pitches roughly as (including the first 2 games of 2018)...

FA: 40%+
SI: ~20%
CH: ~8%
SL: ~20%
CU: ~10%

In his start 6 days ago he threw 96 pitches, only 24 (25%) were FAs, 29 (30%) were SIs, 28 (29%) were SLs, 11 (11%) were CHs, and 4 (4%) were CUs.

Last night, he also threw 96 pitches, broken down as:

25 FAs (26%), 21 SIs (22%), 27 SLs (28%), 9 CHs (9%), 13 CUs (14%)

Once again, he threw the FA much less than his career rate as suggested on these boards months ago in favor of more SIs and off speed stuff.

This is likely how Julio will have to evolve as a pitcher, drastically reducing the usage of his poor FA and relying on his above average breaking stuff. Of course, the 5+ BB/9 still needs to come down, but the 9+ K/9 is nice to see. Eventually batters are going to adjust and stop offering at the SL, at which point Julio will struggle again until he adjusts back.
 
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Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.
 
CJ9 said:
Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.
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Good thing Coppy got fired. He'd offer Julio for Maitian right now.


Also I'm glad to see the Angels playing well. Probably would be my current AL team. I like a lot of players on that squad.
 
CJ9 said:
Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.
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I’m sure we will be endlessly debating Julio’s trade value in 3 months.

Hopefully the Braves are still on the edge of WC contention and we can talk about additions instead.
 
CJ9 said:
Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.
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I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.
 
CJ9 said:
Angels beat writer just mention Teheran and Michael Fulmer as potential targets for them at the deadline. They’ve got some interesting hitting prospects with Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones.

Obviously we need Teheran to keep throwing well to deal him, but the Angels make a lot of sense based on their needs.
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to be honest, getting out of paying him 11m next year might well be worth trading him alone. You have to guess that the Braves can fill that rotation spot cheaper. If they could get a prospect or young player back for him then that's super great. I feel sort of sad for teams looking for pitchers if Fulmer and Teheran are the cream of the available crop.
 
50PoundHead said:
I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.
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Supply and Demand my friend.

If the top targets for SP available are Julio, Fulmer, and Archer, which isnt alot, then teams will have to overpay. And often times, teams overpay when they get desperate.
 
50PoundHead said:
I doubt we'd get any of those guys for Teheran unless he threw complete game shutouts from now until the deadline.
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Things can obviously change but all 3 were pegged with a 50FV. I've thought that would be the range in what you could get for Julio over the past year or so. If he's pitching well at the ASB I could see one of those guys coming back in a hypothetical deal with the contender tax.
 
thewupk said:
Things can obviously change but all 3 were pegged with a 50FV. I've thought that would be the range in what you could get for Julio over the past year or so. If he's pitching well at the ASB I could see one of those guys coming back in a hypothetical deal with the contender tax.
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I’m skeptical, like 50, but it’s potentially plausible if the asks for Fullmer and Archer are prohibitive.
 
If Julio is pitching well enough to bring back a 50 Fv player then chances are the team is in WC contention and would never trade him.
If Julio stinks there is no way the team is in the WC chase. So then he will be a salary dump.
 
JxnMissFan said:
If Julio is pitching well enough to bring back a 50 Fv player then chances are the team is in WC contention and would never trade him.
If Julio stinks there is no way the team is in the WC chase. So then he will be a salary dump.
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That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.
 
jpx7 said:
That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.
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This.
 
jpx7 said:
That's the sort of bind teams often find themselves sliding into when they're up the cusp, but not quite over the threshold, of competing.

I'd personally favor trading Julio even if he's pitching well and the team is in WC contention—rolling the dice that Soroka can come close to approximating Teheran's performance—given the organization's depth in young pitching, the chance for a little more prospect depth to be brought in, and the additional $11 million it'd open up for FA chasing for 2019.
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I agree. I would trade him just to free up the money. His fastball is gone and I don’t think he will survive just throwing breaking pitches. Maybe RA could come back and teach him a knuckle ball
 
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