nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Wisler is 25 with 5 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 4.87. In 2018, he has pitched to a 4.01 FIP in 3 major league starts. In AAA, he has a 3.36 FIP in 5 starts. Last year in AAA, he had a 3.62 FIP in 94 innings.
Sims is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.20. In AAA, he has a 3.73 FIP in 5 starts. Last year in AAA, he had a 4.28 FIP in 115 innings.
Fried is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.56. In AAA, he has a 3.00 FIP in 3 starts. Last year in AA, he had a 4.08 FIP in 19 starts.
I view these three as very close in terms of expected value. Wisler is a year older and has a year less of contractual control, but has a better track record in the majors and minors.
A starting pitcher who can give you 150 innings at a 4.50 FIP is worth about 1 win above replacement. That's pretty close to where I would value Wisler. You add that up for 5 years of contractual control (2 pre-arb and 3 arb) and it gives you an overall expected surplus value of about 4 wins over the years of contractual control. I think that's how a team like say the Texas Rangers might value Wisler.
And how would the Texas Rangers value Adrian Beltre. Presumably if they wanted to trade him they would eat most of the contract in order to try to maximize the return. For the second half of the season, they might project that Beltran would produce 2 wins above replacement. If they traded him for Wisler they would be pocketing a "contender's premium" of about 2 wins. Seems reasonable to me.
What about Sims and Fried?
I think Sims is slightly below Wisler, even allowing for the one year age difference and allowing for some development in that year. However, based on his style of pitching I think he has a slightly better chance of making the transition to the bullpen. So a team like the Rangers would weigh Wisler's slightly higher chances as a starting pitcher versus Sims slightly better projection as a reliever. I suspect they would prefer Wisler.
Fried is a lefty, which everything else equal boosts his value slightly. You could also argue that due to lost development time to the TJ surgery and some injury issues (blisters) last year he has a bit more development ahead of him than Sims although they are the same age. However, you also have to discount some for his sketchier health history. A team like the Rangers would probably take the upside even if it carried more injury risk. So they would favor Fried over Sims. Between Fried and Wisler, I think it would be a tossup for them.
Bottom line: I think a team like that Rangers (Beltre) or Royals (Moose) would be willing to take one of Wisler/Fried/Sims for Beltre or Moose. Moreover, they would probably be willing to eat most of the remaining salary due to those two.
Sims is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.20. In AAA, he has a 3.73 FIP in 5 starts. Last year in AAA, he had a 4.28 FIP in 115 innings.
Fried is 24 with 6 years of contractual control left. Career FIP is 5.56. In AAA, he has a 3.00 FIP in 3 starts. Last year in AA, he had a 4.08 FIP in 19 starts.
I view these three as very close in terms of expected value. Wisler is a year older and has a year less of contractual control, but has a better track record in the majors and minors.
A starting pitcher who can give you 150 innings at a 4.50 FIP is worth about 1 win above replacement. That's pretty close to where I would value Wisler. You add that up for 5 years of contractual control (2 pre-arb and 3 arb) and it gives you an overall expected surplus value of about 4 wins over the years of contractual control. I think that's how a team like say the Texas Rangers might value Wisler.
And how would the Texas Rangers value Adrian Beltre. Presumably if they wanted to trade him they would eat most of the contract in order to try to maximize the return. For the second half of the season, they might project that Beltran would produce 2 wins above replacement. If they traded him for Wisler they would be pocketing a "contender's premium" of about 2 wins. Seems reasonable to me.
What about Sims and Fried?
I think Sims is slightly below Wisler, even allowing for the one year age difference and allowing for some development in that year. However, based on his style of pitching I think he has a slightly better chance of making the transition to the bullpen. So a team like the Rangers would weigh Wisler's slightly higher chances as a starting pitcher versus Sims slightly better projection as a reliever. I suspect they would prefer Wisler.
Fried is a lefty, which everything else equal boosts his value slightly. You could also argue that due to lost development time to the TJ surgery and some injury issues (blisters) last year he has a bit more development ahead of him than Sims although they are the same age. However, you also have to discount some for his sketchier health history. A team like the Rangers would probably take the upside even if it carried more injury risk. So they would favor Fried over Sims. Between Fried and Wisler, I think it would be a tossup for them.
Bottom line: I think a team like that Rangers (Beltre) or Royals (Moose) would be willing to take one of Wisler/Fried/Sims for Beltre or Moose. Moreover, they would probably be willing to eat most of the remaining salary due to those two.
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