Crunching the numbers on a Machado trade - Potential 3B Trades

Camargo's floor is an EXCELLENT super sub. A guy that can swing it a little, but play great defense.

Anyone doubt that if Culberson were let go, that the LAD would be snatching him up?
 
Tapate50 said:
Camargo's floor is an EXCELLENT super sub. A guy that can swing it a little, but play great defense.

Anyone doubt that if Culberson were let go, that the LAD would be snatching him up?
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Yeah, I could see Culberson being their Plan B after Machado.
 
zitothebrave said:
Really what I hope happens is the Braves just listen. Don't proactively look, see what's on the market. See who's looking to offload. Moose will be offloaded but who knows what the market will be like. If it's a buyers market then heck yeah go after him or Beltre. Hell leverage both being on the market as a way to drive down the price. But if multiple teams are looking for a 3B and we'd have to give up a B or better prospect, then they can bugger off. Braves should be looking at the best possible bargain. We weren't supposed to compete this year, and the rub with that is that sometimes when that happens the wheels on the bus fall off. While not comparable in that this team is much younger, think of the 07 Braves. From an offensive standpoint we only had one glaring hole. Scott Thorman. So theoretically you swap in one of the best in the game for one of the worst and you win more right? Well not really, we played 500 ball the rest of the way. The Phillies woke up a bit and put us to bed in September. But the reality is that we had no business being in the race at all. We were lucky because the Phillies and Mets weren't playing great ball. But both teams were better than us. They didn't put us away and going into the deadline we were mathmatically in it. But almost certainly not. Because agian, we weren't as good as philly. Cause while our lineup was pretty good, it had nothing on Howard pre-being hurt/figured out, Utley, Rollins, Rowand, and Burrell. Reality is they had one dud who held them down all year, third base. But when you have 3 MVP level bats in Utley, Howard, and Burrell, that can easily wipe out most of the rest.
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Also not comparable to the 07 team because we actually do have the talent to be this good. And we have been dominating the good teams in our division.
 
zbhargrove said:
Also not comparable to the 07 team because we actually do have the talent to be this good. And we have been dominating the good teams in our division.
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I'd actually agree with the sentiment that his year and 2007 are similarly talented/flawed teams.

I'm not sure the NL is as good now as it was in 2007.

the 2018 pitching would really have to hold up to make a clear case.
 
Tapate50 said:
Camargo's floor is an EXCELLENT super sub. A guy that can swing it a little, but play great defense.

Anyone doubt that if Culberson were let go, that the LAD would be snatching him up?
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I don't really understand the all the love that Camargo gets. Zobrist is my definition of an excellent super sub. Camargo is several steps down. I don't see Camargo as even Prado level. Last year his numbers were helped by his higher than expected BABIP. This year his high walk rate is helping him out. He still has less than 400 PA in the majors. I think he settles in as a below average hitter with average defense.
 
The actual surplus values of the 3B candidates at the deadline (meaning 2 months projected production, plus 2x contender's premium at $10M per WAR) are roughly as follows:

Machado: owed $5.3M, projected to produce ~2 wins, double that to 4 wins, ~$35M in surplus value.
Donaldson: owed $7.7M, projected to produce ~1.5 wins, double that to 3 wins, ~22M in surplus value.
Mous: owed $1.8M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$18M in surplus value.
Beltre: owed $6M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$14M in surplus value.
Lowrie: owed $2M, projected to produce <1 win, double that to 1+ wins, $10M+ in surplus value.

We get prospect surplus values here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

FV 60: $70M
FV 55: $38M
FV 50: $20M
FV 45: $11M
FV 40: $5M (my value)

(Remember, FG recently normalized pitcher FVs to bring them down so hitter/pitcher surplus values are equivalent)

The Braves Top 32 with FVs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

Putting all that together, and understanding that both Machado and Donaldson will likely require even more due to the fact that the Os and Jays are set to get a comp pick for losing them, we can start to cook up packages to upgrade 3B...

The required return for Machado likely takes him off the table as a FV 55 (or high FV 50) centerpiece will almost certainly be required. Needless to say the Braves aren't in a strong enough overall position to give up one of Wright/Gohara/Soroka/Pache/Anderson/Riley to upgrade 3B for 2 months and get to a single WC game. I would maaaybe do Anderson, but probably not, which means he is likely a fair exchange.

The centerpiece for Donaldson is probably going to be a FV 50 guy (if completely healthy and capable of playing 3B). I definitely would not give up Riley for him (who is possibly a FV 55 now anyways), and I probably wouldn't bail on Allard for a 2 month rental, but I would probably give up one of Touki/Fried/Wentz for 2 months of a completely healthy Donaldson. This likely means Allard is fair.

Mous and Beltre could probably be had for a package centered around a high ceiling FV 45 guy. Basically anyone listed here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-love/. That includes Cumberland, Contreras, and possibly anyone TX or KC loves for unknown reasons. Fried is likely a fair deal here.

Lowrie is interesting because of the A's love affair with ~1 win guys ready for MLB. Someone like Sims or Wisler or DPete might get it done, and I think this is a sneaky good option to upgrade 3B by only giving up AAAA filler. I might actually prefer this option to all the others, all things considered.
 
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Enscheff said:
The actual surplus values of the 3B candidates at the deadline (meaning 2 months projected production, plus 2x contender's premium at $10M per WAR) are roughly as follows:

Machado: owed $5.3M, projected to produce ~2 wins, double that to 4 wins, ~$35M in surplus value.
Donaldson: owed $7.7M, projected to produce ~1.5 wins, double that to 3 wins, ~22M in surplus value.
Mous: owed $1.8M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$18M in surplus value.
Beltre: owed $6M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$14M in surplus value.
Lowrie: owed $2M, projected to produce <1 win, double that to 1+ wins, $10M+ in surplus value.

We get prospect surplus values here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

FV 60: $70M
FV 55: $38M
FV 50: $20M
FV 45: $11M
FV 40: $5M (my value)

(Remember, FG recently normalized pitcher FVs to bring them down so hitter/pitcher surplus values are equivalent)

The Braves Top 32 with FVs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

Putting all that together, and understanding that both Machado and Donaldson will likely require even more due to the fact that the Os and Jays are set to get a comp pick for losing them, we can start to cook up packages to upgrade 3B...

The required return for Machado likely takes him off the table as a FV 55 (or high FV 50) centerpiece will almost certainly be required. Needless to say the Braves aren't in a strong enough overall position to give up one of Wright/Gohara/Soroka/Pache/Anderson/Riley to upgrade 3B for 2 months and get to a single WC game. I would maaaybe do Anderson, but probably not, which means he is likely a fair exchange.

The centerpiece for Donaldson is probably going to be a FV 50 guy (if completely healthy and capable of playing 3B). I definitely would not give up Riley for him, and I probably wouldn't bail on Allard for a 2 month rental, but I would probably give up one of Touki/Fried/Wentz for 2 months of a completely healthy Donaldson. This likely means Allard is fair.

Mous and Beltre could probably be had for a package centered around a high ceiling FV 45 guy. Basically anyone listed here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-love/. That includes Cumberland, Contreras, and possibly anyone TX or KC loves for unknown reasons.

Lowrie is interesting because of the A's love affair with 1-2 win guys ready for MLB. Someone like Sims or Wisler or DPete might get it done, and I think this is a sneaky good option to upgrade 3B by only giving up AAAA filler. I might actually prefer this option to all the others, all things considered.
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Agreed Lowrie makes the most sense of those options. I do like dealing Cumberland, too. He's interesting to me as a prospect, but there are major concerns about sticking at catcher, and he's 1B only if not. He probably makes more sense to deal to an AL team.
 
Enscheff said:
The actual surplus values of the 3B candidates at the deadline (meaning 2 months projected production, plus 2x contender's premium at $10M per WAR) are roughly as follows:

Machado: owed $5.3M, projected to produce ~2 wins, double that to 4 wins, ~$35M in surplus value.
Donaldson: owed $7.7M, projected to produce ~1.5 wins, double that to 3 wins, ~22M in surplus value.
Mous: owed $1.8M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$18M in surplus value.
Beltre: owed $6M, projected to produce ~1 win, double that to 2 wins, ~$14M in surplus value.
Lowrie: owed $2M, projected to produce <1 win, double that to 1+ wins, $10M+ in surplus value.

We get prospect surplus values here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

FV 60: $70M
FV 55: $38M
FV 50: $20M
FV 45: $11M
FV 40: $5M (my value)

(Remember, FG recently normalized pitcher FVs to bring them down so hitter/pitcher surplus values are equivalent)

The Braves Top 32 with FVs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-atlanta-braves-2/

Putting all that together, and understanding that both Machado and Donaldson will likely require even more due to the fact that the Os and Jays are set to get a comp pick for losing them, we can start to cook up packages to upgrade 3B...

The required return for Machado likely takes him off the table as a FV 55 (or high FV 50) centerpiece will almost certainly be required. Needless to say the Braves aren't in a strong enough overall position to give up one of Wright/Gohara/Soroka/Pache/Anderson/Riley to upgrade 3B for 2 months and get to a single WC game. I would maaaybe do Anderson, but probably not, which means he is likely a fair exchange.

The centerpiece for Donaldson is probably going to be a FV 50 guy (if completely healthy and capable of playing 3B). I definitely would not give up Riley for him (who is possibly a FV 55 now anyways), and I probably wouldn't bail on Allard for a 2 month rental, but I would probably give up one of Touki/Fried/Wentz for 2 months of a completely healthy Donaldson. This likely means Allard is fair.

Mous and Beltre could probably be had for a package centered around a high ceiling FV 45 guy. Basically anyone listed here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-love/. That includes Cumberland, Contreras, and possibly anyone TX or KC loves for unknown reasons. Fried is likely a fair deal here.

Lowrie is interesting because of the A's love affair with ~1 win guys ready for MLB. Someone like Sims or Wisler or DPete might get it done, and I think this is a sneaky good option to upgrade 3B by only giving up AAAA filler. I might actually prefer this option to all the others, all things considered.
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Great analysis.
I think the contenders premium could be a little less if 3b turns into a buyers market. But it wont change the math much. Because of PR I doubt Machado is traded. One wrinkle on Beltre is I believe he has 5/10 rights and could block any trade. It would lower his cost significantly if he were only open to one or two teams.
 
JxnMissFan said:
Great analysis.
I think the contenders premium could be a little less if 3b turns into a buyers market. But it wont change the math much. Because of PR I doubt Machado is traded. One wrinkle on Beltre is I believe he has 5/10 rights and could block any trade. It would lower his cost significantly if he were only open to one or two teams.
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Agreed. There are wildcards that could turn any of those players into value plays...

The O's are almost certainly the dumbest FO in baseball. They bid against themselves for Cobb, inexplicably extended Chris Davis for huge money, refused to cash out on BP arms, and refused to trade Machado last deadline or this off season when it was clear they couldn't compete. If they suddenly decide they can "reload" and compete in 2019 with Allard and Wisler for Machado...cha-ching...do it.

KC seems to have odd man-crushes on some prospects, so if there's a guy like that in the Braves system who gets them Mous...do it.
 
Potential buyers: Braves, Dodgers (just Machado for SS), Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals

Potentially available: Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, Moose, Lowrie.

I think the supply might be a little more. For example, Solarte might also be made available by the Blue Jays. And if he starts playing well and the Marlins offer to pick up most of salary, there might be some interest in Prado.

I also think the selling teams will generally be willing to pick up some salary to enhance the return.
 
nsacpi said:
Potential buyers: Braves, Dodgers (just Machado for SS), Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals

Potentially available: Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, Moose, Lowrie.

I think the supply might be a little more. For example, Solarte might also be made available by the Blue Jays. And if he starts playing well and the Marlins offer to pick up most of salary, there might be some interest in Prado.

I also think the selling teams will generally be willing to pick up some salary to enhance the return.
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I would be mildly shocked if the Yanks give up on Andujar. They are getting a Top 10 xwOBA from 3B as is, and also have Torreyes on the roster.

The Pirates never add, and certainly won't be moving around enough weight to alter the overall market.

The Angels definitely need to do something though. They will likely move Cozart to 2B and upgrade 3B.

Dodgers...who knows? They operate on a level above my understanding. They may not even be in the playoff hunt at the deadline...

Overall, I'd call it a slight buyer's market, but not enough to wildly swing trade returns since the best players (Machado and Donaldson) will be given QOs, thus lessening their team's desire to trade them.

I just want to see someone new manning 3B on August 1, and I want the Braves to get good value when acquiring that player.
 
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nsacpi said:
Potential buyers: Braves, Dodgers (just Machado for SS), Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals

Potentially available: Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, Moose, Lowrie.

I think the supply might be a little more. For example, Solarte might also be made available by the Blue Jays. And if he starts playing well and the Marlins offer to pick up most of salary, there might be some interest in Prado.

I also think the selling teams will generally be willing to pick up some salary to enhance the return.
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One of the Pirates or Cards are going to go from buyer to seller before the trade deadline.

The Dodgers are interesting. I wonder if they are at or below .500 at the end of June will they become sellers and try to do a mini rebuild like the Yankees did a few years ago. If he gets healthy imagine what half a year of Kershaw would be worth? The Dodgers could trade him then resign him this winter. Also, If the Dodgers are considering Machado or Harper then that puts Puig, Peterson and Turner on the market. The Dodgers could reload quickly if they decided to tank the second half. Kershaw in a Braves uniform is a wet dream for me.
 
Not so sure the Angels give up on Kinsler. The .211 BABIP is depressing his numbers pretty heavily.
 
JxnMissFan said:
One of the Pirates or Cards are going to go from buyer to seller before the trade deadline.

The Dodgers are interesting. I wonder if they are at or below .500 at the end of June will they become sellers and try to do a mini rebuild like the Yankees did a few years ago. If he gets healthy imagine what half a year of Kershaw would be worth? The Dodgers could trade him then resign him this winter. Also, If the Dodgers are considering Machado or Harper then that puts Puig, Peterson and Turner on the market. The Dodgers could reload quickly if they decided to tank the second half. Kershaw in a Braves uniform is a wet dream for me.
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I think a lot of teams will stay in contention in the NL. Each division has one miserable team and the others are likely to stay within striking distance. Phillies and yes Braves are playing above their heads and will come back to the pack, which will increase the WC hopes for just about everyone.
 
nsacpi said:
Potential buyers: Braves, Dodgers (just Machado for SS), Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals

Potentially available: Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, Moose, Lowrie.

I think the supply might be a little more. For example, Solarte might also be made available by the Blue Jays. And if he starts playing well and the Marlins offer to pick up most of salary, there might be some interest in Prado.

I also think the selling teams will generally be willing to pick up some salary to enhance the return.
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Cubs?
 
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