Global Events & Politics Überthread

[Hawk]

I think there is a lot of misunderstanding of what Kim wants. He wants to be seen as important, as a big player on the world stage. That's all. Everything is geared toward creating that appearance. The question is do we deny him this or give it to him. And if we give it to him what can we extract in return. Its not that complicated.

I would submit, especially given the treatment North Korea receives in the international news media, that he has long since been elevated to ‘playmaker’ status. Most evidently in East Asian affairs, but I’d be comfortable making a global case too. This evidenced in the Malaysian diplomatic crisis following the murder of Kim Jong-nam, but also during the period of time he was sending missiles across Hokkaido with regularity.

If the fixation is on the prospect of a photo op potentially creating that appearance, look no further than his recent trip to China and meetings with Xi.

 

[nsacpi]

I would submit, especially given the treatment North Korea receives in the international news media, that he has long since been elevated to ‘playmaker’ status. Most evidently in East Asian affairs, but I’d be comfortable making a global case too. This evidenced in the Malaysian diplomatic crisis following the murder of Kim Jong-nam, but also during the period of time he was sending missiles across Hokkaido with regularity.

If the fixation is on the prospect of a photo op potentially creating that appearance, look no further than his recent trip to China and meetings with Xi.

We do not have to follow Xi on this. I think our default policy should be to treat N Korea as a nothing burger to coin a phrase.

At the same time, we hold open the prospect of a more constructive relationship (including a helping of the pomp and circumstance that matters so much to them). But we should have a clear idea of what we are looking for in exchange.

 

[nsacpi]

I think a first real test of bona fides here is whether or not Kim continues with the demolition at Punggye-ri.

I thought the mountain already imploded upon itself.

 

[Hawk]

We do not have to follow Xi on this. I think our default policy should be to treat N Korea as a nothing burger to coin a phrase.

At the same time, we hold open the prospect of a more constructive relationship (including a helping of the pomp and circumstance that matters so much to them). But we should have a clear idea of what we are looking for in exchange.

I don't believe we have that luxury. We've got allies to consider - not to mention huge investments (both military and economic) in Japan and South Korea.

And, of course, the issue of how North Korea affects our relationship with China.

Kim is a linchpin.

 

[Hawk]

I thought the mountain already imploded upon itself.

That's what I've been told.

So if Kim refuses to continue with the charade, it ultimately won't matter.

Right?

 

[nsacpi]

I don't believe we have that luxury. We've got allies to consider - not to mention huge investments (both military and economic) in Japan and South Korea.

And, of course, the issue of how North Korea affects our relationship with China.

Kim is a linchpin.

Allies to consider? Well, the particular allies in question need us a lot more than we need them.

 

[nsacpi]

That's what I've been told.

So if Kim refuses to continue with the charade, it ultimately won't matter.

Right?

my point is why are we hung up on giving him brownie points for what is essentially a charade

 

[Hawk]

Allies to consider? Well, the particular allies in question need us a lot more than we need them.

I think there's a tinge of classical American hubris in this take.

What do we have that China or Russia couldn't offer militarily?

South Korea and Japan are economic behemoths that don't need American trade to survive.

 

[Hawk]

my point is why are we hung up on giving him brownie points for what is essentially a charade

Who is?

I see Punggye-ri and the release of the hostages as simple good faith measures to secure a meeting with Trump, not steps toward actual denuclearization (or meaningful in any broader context).

I'm content on giving Kim brownie points just for his behavior during the Olympics and the successful meetings with the South Koreans.

 

[nsacpi]

I think there's a tinge of classical American hubris in this take.

What do we have that China or Russia couldn't offer militarily?

South Korea and Japan are economic behemoths that don't need American trade to survive.

The military part is important. The Japanese imo would welcome a more hard-line policy on our part. The S Koreans have a naive peacenik wing that includes the current president. So a touch of finesse is needed to handle them. But I don't think even the naive peacenik wing would operate under the belief that China can replace the kind of military and economic ties we have with them.

 

[nsacpi]

Who is?

I was under the misapprehension you thought it was important. I'm glad that's not the case.

 

[57Brave]

Sure.


, the author doesn't make this claim.
.

" ... Agreeing to the meeting at the highest possible level without first requiring that North Korea agree to limitations on its actions represented a huge boost for the status of the North Korean regime."

 

[thethe]

So we are to delay a positive move towards peace for a non binding pre condition?

 

[nsacpi]

So we are to delay a positive move towards peace for a non binding pre condition?

We are giving them something they want very badly. So we should extract something of importance to us. No?

 

[thethe]

We are giving them something they want very badly. So we should extract something of importance to us. No?

The end result is what we desire

 

[thethe]

We are giving them something they want very badly. So we should extract something of importance to us. No?

And further - What exactly is NK getting here? This intangible value of an elevated status helps NK how exactly? Is that perceived value worth postponing momentous peace talks?

 

[nsacpi]

And further - What exactly is NK getting here? This intangible value of an elevated status helps NK how exactly? Is that perceived value worth postponing momentous peace talks?

An elevated platform on the world stage. For them, a summit with the POTUS is yuge. When you negotiate you use all the leverage at your disposal.

A summit with the POTUS should be the end stage of the process not the start. You extract the concessions, bank them, then bring in Trump to close the deal. But that last part should be mainly ceremonial. Maybe leave a few loose ends for the principals to clear up.

 

[thethe]

An elevated platform on the world stage. For them, a summit with the POTUS is yuge. When you negotiate you use all the leverage at your disposal.

A summit with the POTUS should be the end stage of the process not the start. You extract the concessions, bank them, then bring in Trump to close the deal. But that last part should be mainly ceremonial. Maybe leave a few loose ends for the principals to clear up.

There is still no benefit in this explanation that Kim is receiving. Saying he has elevated status is like me saying veteran presence is needed in a clubhouse.

 

[57Brave]

Further implications of Trumps pre mature reactions are spelled out in David Frum's piece from Saturday or Sunday.

 

[nsacpi]

There is still no benefit in this explanation that Kim is receiving.

You need to study N Korean history and the N Korean mindset. This is something every N Korean expert, including defectors, will tell you. They are a regime that is very nostalgic for the Cold War era, when the Korean peninsula was at the center of global geopolitics. They desperately want to recapture a sense of that centrality and importance. A summit gives it to them. That's fine. But first you extract what you can from them. The summit is the reward once those concessions are extracted and banked.