Global Events & Politics Überthread

nsacpi said:
You need to study N Korean history and the N Korean mindset. This is something every N Korean expert, including defectors, will tell you. They are a regime that is very nostalgic for the Cold War era, when the Korean peninsula was at the center of global geopolitics. They desperately want to recapture a sense of that centrality and importance. A summit gives it to them. That's fine. But first you extract what you can from them. The summit is the reward once those concessions are extracted and banked.
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That is their perception. It provides no tanagble benefit. It should not be something that is a roadblock to peace.
 
thethe said:
That is their perception. It provides no tanagble benefit. It should not be something that is a roadblock to peace.
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I think you are underestimating the importance and power that intangible things can have. Things like beliefs and psychology are intangible but very important in this situation. A summit should be the culmination of the process.
 
nsacpi said:
I think you are underestimating the importance and power that intangible things can have. Things like beliefs and psychology are intangible but very important in this situation. A summit should be the culmination of the process.
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What is different from the cable news networks putting kims face on TV every night? What you are arguing does nothing for their long lasting benefit
 
thethe said:
What is different from the cable news networks putting kims face on TV every night? What you are arguing does nothing for their long lasting benefit
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They get a summit in my scenario too. The difference is we use it as leverage to extract concessions. Seriously, this is Bargaining 101. Know what the other guy wants most and hold on to that until you get what you want.
 
nsacpi said:
They get a summit in my scenario too. The difference is we use it as leverage to extract concessions. Seriously, this is Bargaining 101. Know what the other guy wants most and hold on to that until you get what you want.
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So you would stop these talks because of a perceived benefit that doesn't impact you in any way?
 
thethe said:
So you would stop these talks because of a perceived benefit that doesn't impact you in any way?
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No I am strongly in favor of talking to N Korea. But I wouldn't put a summit first. At this point it is probably too late for us to change course without incurring a PR disaster.
 
maybe next---------- time hold off on the touchdown celebration until have actually scored a touchdown, huh?
This is who Trump is, always was, always will be.

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Hopefully something will happen down the road.
Let's wait and see.
Then let's wait to see the outcomes
Please
 
I think there has been three major events from which we can draw some level of satisfaction: the Olympics, the joint Koreas summit, release of American hostages

Meaningful progress has been made here, however we choose to slice it.
 
Hawk said:
I think there has been three major events from which we can draw some level of satisfaction: the Olympics, the joint Koreas summit, release of American hostages

Meaningful progress has been made here, however we choose to slice it.
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I agree with this entirely. I think that more high-level meetings will happen, and that the events Hawk mentions are tangible positives and offer some hope. I also agree with sacpi that a leader summit without more concessions in place was probably the wrong call, and this development may change the calculus.

I disagree with the credit (and, frankly, blame to some extent) ascribed to Trump in this. I hope that the premature talk of denuclearization and Nobel Prizes can be seen as pointless and silly.

I quibble with some of the delivery, but I think the change in rhetoric, away from dehumanization and "othering" and toward conventional diplomatic language is a positive development and I give Trump credit for that. I guess it's too much to ask to extend that kind of diplomacy to Iran.
 
we don't know that yet.
We as well as Great Britain participated in the 1936 Berlin Olympics

Time has a funny way of playing out in these affairs
 
Should we pay attention to the rumors that Kim cancelled because he was a afraid of a coup when he left the country?
 
Hawk said:
I think it’ll still happen.
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i hope it does...but after doing the necessary preparatory work and at least having the outlines of a deal that limits their nuclear program and provides for a more stable situation
 
On Thursday morning, Mr. Pompeo told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the U.S. had sought for “many days” to arrange meetings between teams of U.S. and North Korean officials to prepare for the summit, but had received no response from Pyongyang.

I think this is the crux of the issue. It was very late in the day for preparations to be made. The formula has to be progress in negotiations first then a summit.
 
the real issue is how few understand this is the work the State Department and diplomats undertake.

Last I checked, we don't have an ambassador to S Korea
 
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Hawk said:
I think there has been three major events from which we can draw some level of satisfaction: the Olympics, the joint Koreas summit, release of American hostages

Meaningful progress has been made here, however we choose to slice it.
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Yes. Those are meaningful events.

At the same time, I think there are downside risks to how this played out. We won't know for sure for months, maybe years. And the risks go beyond how things play out with N Korea. I think other countries are watching and wondering. S Korea for one.
 
thethe said:
Should we pay attention to the rumors that Kim cancelled because he was a afraid of a coup when he left the country?
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100%.


I’m sure the CIA also has a plan that Kim doesn’t make it back to North Korea after the meetings if they decided to go that route.
 
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