Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

Jaw said:
Even if Simmons regresses back to the hitter he was with the Braves and Newk wins 5 Cy Youngs, I won't like the trade. I've never enjoyed watching a player in any sport more than I enjoyed watching Simmons play defense.
Newk does look good though.
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He was fun. I still liked watching andruw in cf more
 
msstate7 said:
His fWAR is being driven by more than babip. He's at -1.9 def value right now through 59 games... over 150 games that's approx -4.8. Here are his def values on fangraphs the last few years...

2017 = -14.1 (115 games)
2016 = -19.0 (156 games)
2015 = -18.7 (154 games)
2014 = -17.5 (150 games)

If the dodgers can keep Kemp's def value at this pace, kemp will be valuable even as babip drops
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Here's the thing with defensive statistics. Samples are deceiving. In 50 games or so you can make a few great plays, or not really be tested yet, but that will normalize out to a poitn over a season. Outfielders sometimes have loopy seasons and mainly it's because they don't see as many balls as middle infielders. So while oftentimes SS and 2B are pretty consistent OF, especially the corners, can see some variation year to year and that variation can come in the form of a handful of great plays where you happened to be positioned really well. And I do think we're ptobably seeing a slight rise in Kemp defensively because of how miserable the Braves were at positioning, but we're not talkign a big rise. Just a move from minus high teens to minus low teens.
 
Julio3000 said:
Yeah, I always thought Tron had the tools to be an above-average hitter. He's strong, smart, and has otherworldly spatial intelligence and hand-eye. I'm not surprised at all to see him hitting now. I'm just glad that Newk is showing hopeful signs of being a stud.
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And that's the thing. He showed the signs of someone who made contact very well, but also had a pretty good eye. As he pops out to the infield way more often than you'd like, whihc is why his BABIP will stay on the lower end. But he's not doing anything drastically out of line with his career norms. A little luck on BABIP, hitting the ball a bit harder than normal, and striking out at a career low while walking at a career high are all things likely to change, but the change will likely just bring his numbers close to last years numbers which with his defense is a near MVP level player.
 
zitothebrave said:
Actually he's shown signs of it all his career. He's due for a cold spell to normalize a bit, but he's shown signs in the past of putting everything together and being a complete hitter to go with a legendary defender.
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In which of his < .700 OPS seasons did anyone see this coming? He's an all-time defender and his hitting has improved dramatically, but he looked like a put-it-in-play guy who outside of one season never showed much in the way of power. I love revisionism.
 
50PoundHead said:
In which of his < .700 OPS seasons did anyone see this coming? He's an all-time defender and his hitting has improved dramatically, but he looked like a put-it-in-play guy who outside of one season never showed much in the way of power. I love revisionism.
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agreed. all of this revisionist history is silly. showing a good eye and good contact skills doesn't mean you're going to produce at a 141 wRC+. especially when his previous high was 103. this is the 1% outcome we hear a lot around here, and no one could have possible expected it.
 
zitothebrave said:
And that's the thing. He showed the signs of someone who made contact very well, but also had a pretty good eye. As he pops out to the infield way more often than you'd like, whihc is why his BABIP will stay on the lower end. But he's not doing anything drastically out of line with his career norms. A little luck on BABIP, hitting the ball a bit harder than normal, and striking out at a career low while walking at a career high are all things likely to change, but the change will likely just bring his numbers close to last years numbers which with his defense is a near MVP level player.
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Those are things typically considered real changes made by the player.

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/
 
Super said:
agreed. all of this revisionist history is silly. showing a good eye and good contact skills doesn't mean you're going to produce at a 141 wRC+. especially when his previous high was 103. this is the 1% outcome we hear a lot around here, and no one could have possible expected it.
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thethe probably did at one point
 
Super said:
agreed. all of this revisionist history is silly. showing a good eye and good contact skills doesn't mean you're going to produce at a 141 wRC+. especially when his previous high was 103. this is the 1% outcome we hear a lot around here, and no one could have possible expected it.
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You are on it. Biggest difference is the BABIP which is way up over his past two seasons. His ISO is actually trailing what what it was last year.

He's improved incrementally to being a pretty average hitter, which is really good for someone with his defense. But its not what people are suggesting.

But maybe he has a freak year and his luck stays high and he'll be a 6 or 7 WAR player. That's certainly possible.
 
thethe said:
Kemp crashed because he got hurt last year. Now if you are telling me he will get hurt again then I would not disagree with that. But, if healthy and used properly Kemp will mash.
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Kemp was just as unlikely to regress last year as he is this year. He is not a .350 hitter. He's not even a .300 hitter. He's skills have diminished and when his BABIP stabilizes, his numbers will plummet. He might still be a .800-850 OPS hitter when healthy, but he is nowhere near as good as he's currently hitting.
 
Carp said:
Kemp was just as unlikely to regress last year as he is this year. He is not a .350 hitter. He's not even a .300 hitter. He's skills have diminished and when his BABIP stabilizes, his numbers will plummet. He might still be a .800-850 OPS hitter when healthy, but he is nowhere near as good as he's currently hitting.
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I haven’t looked lately, but early in the season the Dodgers were doing as I suggested by limiting Kemps defensive inning by liberal use of defensive substitutions.

You are 100% correct that he is going to regress, but with proper utilization Kemp can definitely be a contributor. Needless to say, the Braves were not properly utilizing him.
 
Enscheff said:
I haven’t looked lately, but early in the season the Dodgers were doing as I suggested by limiting Kemps defensive inning by liberal use of defensive substitutions.

You are 100% correct that he is going to regress, but with proper utilization Kemp can definitely be a contributor. Needless to say, the Braves were not properly utilizing him.
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Another key issue with Kemp was his weight management. Last year he came into camp in great shape (relative to his standards), but as soon as he got hurt he let himself go and put on 40-50 pounds, according to a DOB report I saw back in ST. Kemp wasn’t even close to the same after that injury and I think conditioning played a huge part in that.
 
Phillies seem to be dropping off fast. The got 7 walks and 4 hits off of Chatwood today in 4 1/3 innings and could only score 1 run.
 
chop2chip said:
Another key issue with Kemp was his weight management. Last year he came into camp in great shape (relative to his standards), but as soon as he got hurt he let himself go and put on 40-50 pounds, according to a DOB report I saw back in ST. Kemp wasn’t even close to the same after that injury and I think conditioning played a huge part in that.
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Keeping him healthy is 1 of the 2 the main reasons for limiting his defensive innings.
 
thewupk said:
Your obsession is pretty sad.

That said it seems to be the year of the meh outfielders with both Kemp and Neck beasting.
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Urrrrrrregress! 100%! Regress to mean! Derp, xwOBA predicts regress! Look at me! Regress to mean! Regress to mean! Regress! Regress! ****, where's my transformer? Derp! Reeeeggggrrrreeeesssss
 
GovClintonTyree said:
50! 50 grade! Regress! Regress to mean! Derrrp! Everybody! Mean! 45-50! 50-55! Rrrrregresss!
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Exactly the type of response I expected.

Thank you for proving my point. Back to filing paperwork and living vicariously through your son's HS pitching exploits that will ultimately lead to nothing you go. Buh bye!
 
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