Machado or MooseTacos deal

[BeanieAntics]

He was mentioned above as the centerpiece in a Machado deal - yet I'm the one crawled on?

It's fun to daydream - most folks here take things waaaaay too seriously.

The Catcher tandem is doing a great job, but neither are under contract for next year, and Realmuto upgrades the position for 28 if not 29 teams (you can argue whether he'd even be an upgrade for the Giants). Teams that want to truly contend look to upgrade wherever possible, and acquiring him could provide a double-whammy of sorts when you consider you'd be keeping him away from the other contender consistently linked to him (who happens to reside in your division).

Right now I think Realmuto would net more in a trade than Machado. In a vacuum, I would pay more for 2 1/2 seasons of a 4 WAR catcher than I would for 1/2 of a season of a 6-7 WAR 3rd baseman (and especially so if he insisted on playing SS, where he is far less valuable defensively). So I think Allard as a centerpiece for Machado is probably more realistic than Allard as a centerpiece for Realmuto.

 

[Enscheff]

Ignoring the fact that Allard isn’t going to net you Realmuto, please explain to me the rationale of trading valuable prospects for a catcher right now.

Correct. Allard isn't getting JT, and there is no reason to spend resources upgrading at C when the Braves are currently getting Top 5 production in all of MLB at the position...and that was with Flowers missing significant time.

Just another instance of clv derping. He also thought Jenkins could get Sale, and MAdams could get Odorizzi, so he continues to show a complete lack of understanding about player valuation.

Realmuto could be an option this off season though.

 

[Enscheff]

Right now I think Realmuto would net more in a trade than Machado. In a vacuum, I would pay more for 2 1/2 seasons of a 4 WAR catcher than I would for 1/2 of a season of a 6-7 WAR 3rd baseman (and especially so if he insisted on playing SS, where he is far less valuable defensively). So I think Allard as a centerpiece for Machado is probably more realistic than Allard as a centerpiece for Realmuto.

Another person who understands player value better than cvlderpclv.

Machado is probably going to project for 2 wins over the final 2 months of the season. At $10M per win, that represents $20M in value. Double it for the contender's premium, and Machado should provide about $40M after he is traded. Subtract the $5M he will make over the final 2 months, and Machado carries a surplus value of about $35M.

Allard is a FV 50 prospect, and those are valued at around $20M. Allard is a perfectly reasonable centerpiece for acquiring Machado as a rental. I'm not sure I'd want to pull the trigger on that unless the Braves are still within 1-2 games of the division lead.

Realmuto is in a whole other realm of player value. He would project for 1 win for the rest of the season after the deadline, which when doubled is $20M. He is making essentially nothing this year, so that $20M is pure surplus. He will probably be projected to produce 6 wins over his 2 remaining years of control while being paid roughly $15M-$20M total. That is an additional $40M-$45M in surplus value, for a total of $60M+ in surplus value.

So no, a $20M pitching prospect is not going to headline the package for a $60M catcher. If the Braves want Realmuto they will have to start with a FV 55 guy and add to it. This off season his value drops to the $40M range, at which point Allard might be a viable centerpiece.

 

[sturg33]

Another person who understands player value better than cvlderpclv.

Machado is probably going to project for 2 wins over the final 2 months of the season. At $10M per win, that represents $20M in value. Double it for the contender's premium, and Machado should provide about $40M after he is traded. Subtract the $5M he will make over the final 2 months, and Machado carries a surplus value of about $35M.

Allard is a FV 50 prospect, and those are valued at around $20M. Allard is a perfectly reasonable centerpiece for acquiring Machado as a rental. I'm not sure I'd want to pull the trigger on that unless the Braves are still within 1-2 games of the division lead.

Realmuto is in a whole other realm of player value. He would project for 1 win for the rest of the season after the deadline, which when doubled is $20M. He is making essentially nothing this year, so that $20M is pure surplus. He will probably be projected to produce 6 wins over his 2 remaining years of control while being paid roughly $15M-$20M total. That is an additional $40M-$45M in surplus value, for a total of $60M+ in surplus value.

So no, a $20M pitching prospect is not going to headline the package for a $60M catcher. If the Braves want Realmuto they will have to start with a FV 55 guy and add to it. This off season his value drops to the $40M range, at which point Allard might be a viable centerpiece.

Is the contender premium actually double or is that just your gut assumption? Seems high but I haven't really tracked past deals

 

[Southcack77]

Is the contender premium actually double or is that just your gut assumption? Seems high but I haven't really tracked past deals

Depends on the player, the market, the timing and the teams involved.

 

[Enscheff]

Is the contender premium actually double or is that just your gut assumption? Seems high but I haven't really tracked past deals

It’s just a way to account for players being more valuable to clubs when they know they will be playing in October. The premium for elite BP arms may be 3x or 4x.

The caveat is obviously that the player will be making an impact in the playoffs, which is why back end SPs aren’t very valuable at the deadline...they don’t pitch in the playoffs. That’s also why elite BP arms are extremely expensive...teams can leverage them a lot in postseason series with so many off days in between.

 

[Southcack77]

NYTT: Will the Braves be one of the five best teams in the NL at the end of the year?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: In terms of record, or true talent?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: In terms of record, they already have a leg up

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’m a little bit of a Braves skeptic, but at the same time, I have a feeling they could be the most likely destination for Machado. So obviously that would be a massive improvement


Take that, Law.

 

[clvclv]

Right now I think Realmuto would net more in a trade than Machado. In a vacuum, I would pay more for 2 1/2 seasons of a 4 WAR catcher than I would for 1/2 of a season of a 6-7 WAR 3rd baseman (and especially so if he insisted on playing SS, where he is far less valuable defensively). So I think Allard as a centerpiece for Machado is probably more realistic than Allard as a centerpiece for Realmuto.

I wouldn't disagree at all - other than I really don't think Allard as the centerpiece of a Machado deal is particularly realistic either.

Since the post mentioning that "hope" was made, I didn't see the harm in wishing for a little more while daydreaming.

The funny thing is that His Highness - Dealer Of Blackjack believes that ANYBODY in the Os front office can even find this Player/Prospect Value Chart made of solid gold following the Chris Davis contract.

 

[thewupk]

I wouldn't disagree at all - other than I really don't think Allard as the centerpiece of a Machado deal is particularly realistic either.

Since the post mentioning that "hope" was made, I didn't see the harm in wishing for a little more while daydreaming.

The funny thing is that His Highness - Dealer Of Blackjack believes that ANYBODY in the Os front office can even find this Player/Prospect Value Chart made of solid gold following the Chris Davis contract.

All things considered I would think Allard being the centerpiece of a Machado deal is pretty realistic. The O's seemingly are one of the few dinosaur front office's left in town and they likely value Allard more than others due to his actual results in the minors compared to how he's achieved it.

All and all Machado just isn't going to bring some kind of kings ransom. Those days are over. We know what Machado's surplus value is going to be at the trade deadline. At this point it's about plug and play and who the O's value the most internally. The Braves should be able to make a play without really damaging the farm at all.

 

[Hudson2]

All things considered I would think Allard being the centerpiece of a Machado deal is pretty realistic. The O's seemingly are one of the few dinosaur front office's left in town and they likely value Allard more than others due to his actual results in the minors compared to how he's achieved it.

All and all Machado just isn't going to bring some kind of kings ransom. Those days are over. We know what Machado's surplus value is going to be at the trade deadline. At this point it's about plug and play and who the O's value the most internally. The Braves should be able to make a play without really damaging the farm at all.

If we are still in it (which I think we will be) i'd no doubt trade Allard for Machado.

 

[Heyward]

Losing Allard would hurt but if Machado hasnt been dealt by deadline week and we're still in contention of the division, i'd do Allard for Machado depending what else would be involved.

 

[clvclv]

All things considered I would think Allard being the centerpiece of a Machado deal is pretty realistic. The O's seemingly are one of the few dinosaur front office's left in town and they likely value Allard more than others due to his actual results in the minors compared to how he's achieved it.

All and all Machado just isn't going to bring some kind of kings ransom. Those days are over. We know what Machado's surplus value is going to be at the trade deadline. At this point it's about plug and play and who the O's value the most internally. The Braves should be able to make a play without really damaging the farm at all.

I'm just not so sure that that group isn't convinced that they can do better than Allard with the comp pick they'd get if they held on to Machado, and given the lack of respect he gets from the numbers community I'm not so sure that someone over there wouldn't rather have the pick if Allard's the best headliner they get offered.

 

[thewupk]

I'm just not so sure that that group isn't convinced that they can do better than Allard with the comp pick they'd get if they held on to Machado, and given the lack of respect he gets from the numbers community I'm not so sure that someone over there wouldn't rather have the pick if Allard's the best headliner they get offered.

I doubt the the QO pick lands in any top 100 lists out of the gate.

And the premise is the O's not being into the advanced numbers and base their value solely on his result sin aaa, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if they value Allard as a top 50 prospect.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I doubt the the QO pick lands in any top 100 lists out of the gate.

And the premise is the O's not being into the advanced numbers and base their value solely on his result sin aaa, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if they value Allard as a top 50 prospect.

Even if they value him as just a top 100-150 prospect, that is still probably more valuable than the pick they would get through the QO.

 

[Southcack77]

Even if they value him as just a top 100-150 prospect, that is still probably more valuable than the pick they would get through the QO.

But maybe not more valuable than the bonus pool money ... but I have no idea how the Orioles operate.

Their reputation is that they are mostly interested in contending and rarely sell so close to majors assets may be their preference. Probably a bad move considering what they have to deal with in their division.

 

[Enscheff]

I doubt the the QO pick lands in any top 100 lists out of the gate.

And the premise is the O's not being into the advanced numbers and base their value solely on his result sin aaa, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if they value Allard as a top 50 prospect.

Even if they value him as just a top 100-150 prospect, that is still probably more valuable than the pick they would get through the QO.

But maybe not more valuable than the bonus pool money ... but I have no idea how the Orioles operate.

Their reputation is that they are mostly interested in contending and rarely sell so close to majors assets may be their preference. Probably a bad move considering what they have to deal with in their division.

Correct, correct, correct.

AA is in position to take advantage of either KC or the O's, both of which are at the bottom of the brain pan rankings in modern baseball.

The fact I am hesitant to trade Allard for Machado is likely a good sign that he is a fair centerpiece.

 

[sturg33]

No interest in Moose at all.

Give me Machado for Allard all day of were contending

 

[clvclv]

I doubt the the QO pick lands in any top 100 lists out of the gate.

And the premise is the O's not being into the advanced numbers and base their value solely on his result sin aaa, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if they value Allard as a top 50 prospect.

Exactly what everyone would hope - the problem is that they're going to be dragged (kicking and screaming) into them at some point.

You guys have been screaming about how Allard can't be successful at the MLB level for months despite his success - what makes you think that somebody in Baltimore finally listens as well? It's not like they can make the Davis contract disappear, so moving him (Machado) clears $17 million for next season - whether it's via free-agency OR trade, and they KNOW that's the money they'll have to replace him no matter where/when he goes. Everybody loves to beat up on JS around here - go back and look at the decision-maker's (Angelos) history in Baltimore - exactly what makes you think he's going to listen to anybody screaming "take the best offer on the table" when he's never done it before??? Would the Orioles be any better in 2019 with Allard and Moose than they are in 2018 with Machado?

You guys have screamed about the Braves being "anti-numbers" for years, what makes you think the Orioles are suddenly going to change in the next 6 weeks when they've been even worse?

Angelos is every bit as old-school as you guys scream about The Johns and Bobby being, and he actually has the final say since he's the one writing the checks. If he'd have had any sense, he'd have taken Andujar for Machado from the Yankees straight-up last winter, but his hatred of the Yankees (and lack of willingness to try to adjust to today's game) wouldn't let him.

 

[Carp]

Another person who understands player value better than cvlderpclv.

Machado is probably going to project for 2 wins over the final 2 months of the season. At $10M per win, that represents $20M in value. Double it for the contender's premium, and Machado should provide about $40M after he is traded. Subtract the $5M he will make over the final 2 months, and Machado carries a surplus value of about $35M.

Allard is a FV 50 prospect, and those are valued at around $20M. Allard is a perfectly reasonable centerpiece for acquiring Machado as a rental. I'm not sure I'd want to pull the trigger on that unless the Braves are still within 1-2 games of the division lead.

Realmuto is in a whole other realm of player value. He would project for 1 win for the rest of the season after the deadline, which when doubled is $20M. He is making essentially nothing this year, so that $20M is pure surplus. He will probably be projected to produce 6 wins over his 2 remaining years of control while being paid roughly $15M-$20M total. That is an additional $40M-$45M in surplus value, for a total of $60M+ in surplus value.

So no, a $20M pitching prospect is not going to headline the package for a $60M catcher. If the Braves want Realmuto they will have to start with a FV 55 guy and add to it. This off season his value drops to the $40M range, at which point Allard might be a viable centerpiece.

Personally, I want nothing to do with Realmuto as we are getting good production from Flowers and Suzuki. Just resign them both in the off-season. But, I do think we could get Realmuto without giving up a 55 FV prospect. Allard himself obviously wouldn't be a centerpiece. But combining 2 or 3 of Allard, Waters, Fried, Touki, and Cumberland would put you fairly close to the surplus value that Realmuto possesses. But again, I would rather avoid Realmuto.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Personally, I want nothing to do with Realmuto as we are getting good production from Flowers and Suzuki. Just resign them both in the off-season. But, I do think we could get Realmuto without giving up a 55 FV prospect. Allard himself obviously wouldn't be a centerpiece. But combining 2 or 3 of Allard, Waters, Fried, Touki, and Cumberland would put you fairly close to the surplus value that Realmuto possesses. But again, I would rather avoid Realmuto.

Resigning Flowers and Suzuki makes sense, because we seem to have found a way to keep two older guys productive at catcher without wearing either of them down. Either of them would likely lose productivity if forced to catch 130-140 games. Assuming neither of them takes an opportunity elsewhere to be the full-time catcher, we should keep trying this tandem on a year-by-year basis until it shows signs of not working.