Dansbae musings

Julio3000

Julio3000

<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I find that Dansby is still a mystery to me. If you look at his numbers this year, he's pretty much smack in the middle of the pack in MLB at his position. I think this is a fair assessment. I think he has the tools and makeup to be better than that, but I've never been able to shake the nagging feeling that he's not gonna get there.

Now, I think he's fine for this team right where he is, and I'm comfortable with him holding down the position long-term. He's tightened up the defensive side of his game, and he's shown the ability to work with pitches on the outer third a lot better this year. I think that's what a lot of his future success depends on. I haven't dug into his peripherals and batted ball numbers much, so I wanted to ask people who have, and the board at large, what they expect from him this year and in seasons to come.
 
strikeout out rate has gone backwards...BABIP luck has camouflaged the negative consequences of that

otoh Camargo has brought down his strikeout rate...bad BABIP luck has shrouded the positive implications of that
 
nsacpi said:
strikeout out rate has gone backwards...BABIP luck has camouflaged the negative consequences of that

otoh Camargo has brought down his strikeout rate...bad BABIP luck has shrouded the positive implications of that
Click to expand...

Actually I think Camargo is probably one of the best hitters on the team if you see what he comes up to the plate and his eye. He rarely swings at bad pitches. He is not my ideal 3b though because he will cap at 15 homers, barely and we should want more. He is better than Bae I think personally depending on what you want in the player but Bae is not bad either, he is like Julio said, meh type of player with nice hair and model face.
 
nsacpi said:
strikeout out rate has gone backwards...BABIP luck has camouflaged the negative consequences of that

otoh Camargo has brought down his strikeout rate...bad BABIP luck has shrouded the positive implications of that
Click to expand...

Babip this season is .343. Career babip is .318.
Iso this season is .183. Career iso is .122.
Slugging % this is season is .442. Career is .372.

I hardly think babip being up .025 points is a huge red flag. K rate is up, but so is iso and slugging.

Oh and Dansby is becoming or already is one of the best defensive SS is mlb
 
this is what Dansby is. He was a low floor prospect. I think he can steadily improve a bit over his career but he isn't an all star. With the defense he has provided this year he us a nice cheap role player.
 
nsacpi said:
strikeout out rate has gone backwards...BABIP luck has camouflaged the negative consequences of that

otoh Camargo has brought down his strikeout rate...bad BABIP luck has shrouded the positive implications of that
Click to expand...

otooh, only one of them can play SS long-term/high-volume, at least for positive defensive value.
 
cajunrevenge said:
this is what Dansby is. He was a low floor prospect. I think he can steadily improve a bit over his career but he isn't an all star. With the defense he has provided this year he us a nice cheap role player.
Click to expand...

I think you mean high floor but low ceiling. He's played at a 3+ WAR pace this year. I think that was what most projections had from him when he was a top prospect. Instead of it coming with above avg bat and above avg defense its been with an avg bat and plus defense this year.
 
Dansby bWAR is 1.9 (1.2 oWAR and 1.0 dWAR).

Dansby fWAR is 1.4 (0.1 off and 6.6 def)

What does BR like about Dansby's offense that Fangraphs doesn't?
 
msstate7 said:
Dansby bWAR is 1.9 (1.2 oWAR and 1.0 dWAR).

Dansby fWAR is 1.4 (0.1 off and 6.6 def)

What does BR like about Dansby's offense that Fangraphs doesn't?
Click to expand...

It's apples to oranges.

Notice that his oWAR and dWAR don't add up to his actual WAR number from b-ref. oWAR and dWAR both include the positional element. So oWAR accounts for more than just offense. The real number you are looking for on b-ref is Rbat which Swanson's is 2. And that correlates to wRAA on Fangraphs which Swanson's is 0.7. Both are telling you how many runs above average the player is just by hitting.
 
With Camargo, I think he's been a bit lucky in both season samples to post averagish hitting stats.

But I'm willing to go with the idea that he's made some actual improvement in his K and BB rates. Probably an incremental change when it sorts out, but something that shows he might continue making progress forward with the bat to where those averagish numbers could look sustainable.
 
I thought think if I just looked at numbers I would be worried.

Watching the games I am encouraged. He is working counts. He is hitting a lot of hard outs.

He looks pretty good on d.

Not a star. But he looks plus to me
 
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