It’s about time to take an updated look at pitch arsenals. There has been chatter about Folty’s slider being better, and he appears to be a freak whose velocity doesn’t follow typical aging curve.
The great folty vs Newcomb debate
- Thread starter msstate7
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It’s about time to take an updated look at pitch arsenals. There has been chatter about Folty’s slider being better, and he appears to be a freak whose velocity doesn’t follow typical aging curve.
msstate7
Well-known member
My eye, which is better than any statcast, says the slider is better haha
Ok, I'm going off the k rate, not my eye
Someone here a month or so ago made a comment that Folty never gets chased out of the zone on his breaking pitches. I looked up the stats and he was indeed one of the worst in MLB at getting chased out of the zone.
Is that a skill? No idea.
Maybe that changed as the year wore on. Maybe he is just throwing harder.
I predicted Folty to be the future Ace of the staff 2 offf seasons ago, so It warrants a deep dive for sure.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
I'll give the new Braves analytics department credit for Folty, they saw that his best pitches were the 4 seamer/slider and told him to increase the usage of those pitches and don't worry about conserving energy on your fastball (I believe, but I don't know exactly where that article is).
But still o-swing% is 26.8% or 25.2% depending on what you use, and they are both lows, very odd.
Maybe I'll look into this real "figure it out" stretch and see if I can compile something on it. As while 4 seamer/slider is up, he still uses the other pitches (although only about 15.6% of the time).
But still o-swing% is 26.8% or 25.2% depending on what you use, and they are both lows, very odd.
Maybe I'll look into this real "figure it out" stretch and see if I can compile something on it. As while 4 seamer/slider is up, he still uses the other pitches (although only about 15.6% of the time).
Southcack77
Well-known member
: How important has your slider been to your success?
A: “Huge. When I got drafted, Houston banged that pitch and I got it back in the ’13, ’14 season. I could just never throw it over 86 mph. I just had troubles. Then all of a sudden, I don’t know if it was ’16 or ’15, I started throwing it a little harder, 88, 89. Now you just have to know what to do with it. I can throw it hard now, now I just have to control it, be able to throw my slider for strikes, use it in 3-2 counts and strike some guys out. It’s just having the confidence in that pitch and being able to let it rip in any count. And these guys are going to swing at it or I know I’m going to be able to throw a strike and you’re going to ground out or take it. It’s been a huge pitch for me this year. It’s been my most improved pitch and it’s only going to get better.”
Q: At what point did you commit yourself to improving it and upping its usage?
A: “Probably last year when I threw it harder and right where it needs to be. Just like, ‘Ok. Now I have to pick my spots and where to throw it.’ Just being able to control it and my change-up is the biggest thing. Just being able to throw that in games, especially when there’s so many lefties in today’s game, they just have everything coming into them. It’s nice to have the change-up as a weapon. I feel comfortable throwing it to righties too. So I think the slider and change-up, just that combo I have, with a curveball and fastball is pretty devastating. So I just have to be able to control it all, strike some people out, get some people out, not have them hit it. That’s the name of the game.”
A: “Huge. When I got drafted, Houston banged that pitch and I got it back in the ’13, ’14 season. I could just never throw it over 86 mph. I just had troubles. Then all of a sudden, I don’t know if it was ’16 or ’15, I started throwing it a little harder, 88, 89. Now you just have to know what to do with it. I can throw it hard now, now I just have to control it, be able to throw my slider for strikes, use it in 3-2 counts and strike some guys out. It’s just having the confidence in that pitch and being able to let it rip in any count. And these guys are going to swing at it or I know I’m going to be able to throw a strike and you’re going to ground out or take it. It’s been a huge pitch for me this year. It’s been my most improved pitch and it’s only going to get better.”
Q: At what point did you commit yourself to improving it and upping its usage?
A: “Probably last year when I threw it harder and right where it needs to be. Just like, ‘Ok. Now I have to pick my spots and where to throw it.’ Just being able to control it and my change-up is the biggest thing. Just being able to throw that in games, especially when there’s so many lefties in today’s game, they just have everything coming into them. It’s nice to have the change-up as a weapon. I feel comfortable throwing it to righties too. So I think the slider and change-up, just that combo I have, with a curveball and fastball is pretty devastating. So I just have to be able to control it all, strike some people out, get some people out, not have them hit it. That’s the name of the game.”
Southcack77
Well-known member
Lowest Opp BA vs Slider - Starting Pitchers
Trevor Bauer .086 (pitches today)
Mike Foltynewicz .101
Chris Sale .102
Max Scherzer .108
Trevor Bauer .086 (pitches today)
Mike Foltynewicz .101
Chris Sale .102
Max Scherzer .108
That data suggest something undisclosed going on. I doubt a tripling of BB rate is as simple as regression to the mean.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
July numbers are just two starts for both of them.
Agreed... but those two starts for Newk have been beyond awful. I still think there is something going on besides regression. I hope we soon see the guy we saw a few weeks ago.
LOL, it suggests that the July value is based on 6 very poor innings. It isn't even enough data to bother looking at.
Quite simply, Newk isn't as good as lot of folks around here want him to be. When that fact is brought to their attention they get upset and start looking for ways to prove me wrong.
One guy even quoted me in his sig when he thought I was proven wrong...and then I ended up being right and he's stuck with complimenting me in his sig because removing it will prove he is an idiot lol. He has since doubled down on the tactic, and will end up doing the exact same folly twice haha.
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msstate7
Well-known member
Newcomb needs a good start this week. I think he gets it
True... But they are the last six, and have been beyond horrible. I hope it changes quickly, but it is puzzling.
I would be shocked if Newk suddenly stops pitching like a MLB-quality SP.
All seasons are made up of good and bad stretches. This is a bad stretch. It will be followed by anther good stretch.
Folks will overreact to that stretch just like they always do.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
Yeah! It has a really simple explanation. Smarter hitting clubs that have realized that Newcomb can't throw three strikes before four balls in a lot of cases. Unfortunately. So hitters just park the bat on their shoulder and let him dig himself into a soup where he has to throw a strike to hit.
jesus, man, i don't think a single person here thinks about you that much.
newcomb isn't as good as i want him to be. he also isn't finished developing in my mind. i'll just take the patience route. but make no mistake, my hopes for him have nothing to do with you lol.
good thing we didn't give up on folty after his 2014 & 2015.
Southcack77
Well-known member
The whole idea of the exercise is looking for outliers. The general case for a prospect is almost always going to be something that falls short of expectations. Newcomb was pitching much better than he had in the past.
The only sensible prediction was that he was likely to regress towards what he had done before. That's what almost always happens. The question is how far he has advanced his abilities.
I don't think its very unusual at all for a pitcher to show improvement over a course of a few seasons before hitting a peak plateau and then declining. The data suggests that the usual peak is around 27-28 years of age, but that's quite distinct from experience. I looked for some analysis of years in the league or IP or something and came up empty on it.
If you isolated guys who had say 7 years in the majors with 15 or more starts, I wonder what the curve would like if you pulled out their WAR by ordinal season in the majors.
My general sense of articles about the data is that raw stuff is just one piece of the puzzle and that other pieces of the puzzle are more important at least within some ranges.
msstate7
Well-known member
Pretty sure you're correct. Picked up pitching his senior year.
ETA... so assuming I'm correct on him starting pitching his senior year...
Newcomb...
348.1 milb ip
197.1 mlb ip
165.0 college ip
58.0 HS ip
768.2 ip total on his arm
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New article suggesting Folty may be outperforming his swinging strike rate, which might cause some regression in his K rate:
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/can-we-count-on-strikeouts-from-mike-foltynewicz/
The money quote: "His current rate is just half of a percentage point above the major league average for starting pitchers, so it would be a reasonable assumption that Foltynewicz should only be a slightly above-average strikeout pitcher going forward."
What type of regression does this suggest?
Of the 83 qualified SPs in MLB this year, Folty ranks #35 in SwStr%. Being ranked #35 in K% would put him right around 23%, rather than the 28.9% he is currently posting.
Less Ks would lead to a higher HR/9, and subsequently a higher overall ERA.
His SwStr% vs K% is definitely something to monitor moving forward.
If someone can unravel why Folty ranks so poorly in getting swings on pitches out of the zone (4th lowest of all qualified SPs), it could be the missing piece to him becoming a true TOR guy.
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/can-we-count-on-strikeouts-from-mike-foltynewicz/
The money quote: "His current rate is just half of a percentage point above the major league average for starting pitchers, so it would be a reasonable assumption that Foltynewicz should only be a slightly above-average strikeout pitcher going forward."
What type of regression does this suggest?
Of the 83 qualified SPs in MLB this year, Folty ranks #35 in SwStr%. Being ranked #35 in K% would put him right around 23%, rather than the 28.9% he is currently posting.
Less Ks would lead to a higher HR/9, and subsequently a higher overall ERA.
His SwStr% vs K% is definitely something to monitor moving forward.
If someone can unravel why Folty ranks so poorly in getting swings on pitches out of the zone (4th lowest of all qualified SPs), it could be the missing piece to him becoming a true TOR guy.
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