Baseball America New Top 100

msstate7 said:
It's not like I just I picked some random samples. Riley went on the dL and his k rate exploded before that dL stint. K rate goes way down once healthy. I don't think it's a stretch to credit injury with some of thd k issues in that period.

Steamer projects his k rate lower than it currently is at AAA now. 28.1% to 29.6%

A+ = 21.8%
AA = 24.6%
AA = 25.7%

I think he will k around 26-29% at mlb level with massive power.
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but do you know when injury started to affect his performance

besides in a long season most players play hurt for a few weeks...it just gets buried in their overall data...Riley is no different
 
nsacpi said:
but do you know when injury started to affect his performance

besides in a long season most players play hurt for a few weeks...it just gets buried in their overall data...Riley is no different
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Current rate is 29.6%

You say this is accurate representation. What's the bet that he is under 29%?
 
OcalaBrave said:
We are both talking about the 20 year old lefty in AAA with a sub 3 ERA, right? Man I hate radar guns. They made Cabrera a great prospect and now Allard is a solid 3 to a AAAA starter because he doesn't light up a gun?

Great. Let's keep him and stick him in Atlanta.
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Its just a simple fact that guys who don't throw as hard don't succeed at the MLB level at the same rate as guys who throw harder. There are certainly exceptions to that. And I think you are underestimating how good a number 3 starter is. That is like, 2016 Julio or something close to that. Its a solid 3ish win pitcher. To expect a guy who is throwing 89-90 to be anything more than that is not a good idea. The odds of it happening are very very remote.
 
OcalaBrave said:
We are both talking about the 20 year old lefty in AAA with a sub 3 ERA, right? Man I hate radar guns. They made Cabrera a great prospect and now Allard is a solid 3 to a AAAA starter because he doesn't light up a gun?

Great. Let's keep him and stick him in Atlanta.
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I would love to see your MLB projections for Allard.
 
Enscheff said:
I would love to see your MLB projections for Allard.
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I don't have any. He may be Glavin or Liebrandt or any number of Braves farm hands that flame out. But the radar gun won't be the determining factor. This game is based upon pitchers getting outs. Thus far, he does it better than almost any other prospect we have.
 
It's perfectly reasonable to doubt Allard. You need to get swings and misses to succeed in baseball today. If you don't your stuff is too hittable and you will give up too many hits and dingers.

I hope his stuff ticks up a bit more.
 
OcalaBrave said:
I don't have any. He may be Glavin or Liebrandt or any number of Braves farm hands that flame out. But the radar gun won't be the determining factor. This game is based upon pitchers getting outs. Thus far, he does it better than almost any other prospect we have.
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Well hell I only hit 72 on the radar gun, but I could knock a dime off an ant's ass with my control. You think I might have a shot?!?!
 
OcalaBrave said:
If you were 20 posting a sub 3 ERA in AAA you'd certainly deserve one, despite what the radar gun says.
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But that’s false. Allard will get lit up when he makes it to MLB. I hope he does well, but with a lack of velocity he is going to be eaten alive.
 
Skeeter31 said:
But that’s false. Allard will get lit up when he makes it to MLB. I hope he does well, but with a lack of velocity he is going to be eaten alive.
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Maybe, maybe not... you have no way of knowing this as fact. We sure destroyed greinke and his 90-91 last Saturday, right? No, I'm not saying allard will be greinke, but he doesn't walk guys and seems to stay off bats. Will he succeed? Probably not, but that's pretty much every prospect. We drafted him 1st round, so not like he's total crap stuff
 
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msstate7 said:
Maybe, maybe not... you have no way of knowing this as fact. We sure destroyed greinke and his 90-91 last Saturday, right? No, I'm not saying allard will be greinke, but he doesn't walk guys and seems to stay off bats. Will he succeed? Probably not, but that's pretty much every prospect. We drafted him 1st round, so not like he's total crap stuff
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*chances are he gets lit up
 
msstate7 said:
Maybe, maybe not... you have no way of knowing this as fact. We sure destroyed greinke and his 90-91 last Saturday, right? No, I'm not saying allard will be greinke, but he doesn't walk guys and seems to stay off bats. Will he succeed? Probably not, but that's pretty much every prospect. We drafted him 1st round, so not like he's total crap stuff
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You should at least find out if he’s Greinke or Glavine or Moyer or any number of guys who had a career for awhile with less success.
 
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