2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

JxnMissFan said:
I think Gohara and Fried are exactly the kind of guys you give up for Archer. Fried is a 24 year old TJ guy that is still trying to develop. If he isn't established as a starter or bullpen guy in a year he most likely will never make it. Gohara may have the pitches for a TOR guy but he has the physical and mental makeup of a dumpster fire.
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Agreed - even though I'd like to keep them over Allard and Anderson.

All the guys we're talking about are kids we HOPE turn into Archer within a couple of years - the thing is Archer is probably their ceilings at best if everything goes right.

We can look at the projections, but no matter what they say we can all agree that Archer's numbers will improve if he moves to the NL. The window is opening, and Archer is a known quantity rather than a kid you're hanging high hopes on. Go get him and your rotation immediately lines up with anyone's with Folty, Newk, and Archer at the top - over the next two years you phase out Julio and Anibal and replace them with Soroka/Wright/Allard/Touki/Weigel/Anderson/Wentz.

With Duvall on board and Riley on the verge of getting here to provide RH pop and plenty of money to spend to get a Catcher, pen help, and another bat wherever you might need it I'll roll those dice.
 
striker42 said:
Julio is just a handy example of a guy who saw his fastball velocity decline and his effectiveness decline as well. Archer has kept a fairly steady velocity of 95-96. However, he's now 29 years old. How long is he going to be able to keep that velocity?

Also, Archer's velocity is a full MPH lower than last year. Is this just an outlier or is it the start of a decline in velocity? Will Archer's average fastball drop below 94 next season? Is he the same pitcher with an average velocity of 92-93?
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But Archer's velocity hasn't dipped... okay its down to 94.6 when compared with last year's 95.5 (another "down" fWAR 4+ year with a high BABIP) but is still higher than 2012, same as 2014, and higher than 2016... he hasn't seen any sort of velocity dip... what you are seeing is simple variation. he's a pitcher that sits around 94.5 +/- 1 mph. I don't see how you can put stock on a 1 mph drop when its actually in perfect line with the career average... especially the high velocity year was one of his "worst"
 
msstate7 said:
Not sure why they wouldn't... 5.5 games out with 2 teams in front of them that relatively inexperienced.
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UNCBlue012 said:
Not really. They're massively talented and have what it takes to win it all, even if they sneak in.
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They are a sub .500 team with 2 months to go and 2 teams ahead of them. Catching 1 is certainly possible but hoping to pass both seems like too large of an ask for me. They have no shot at the 2nd WC either.
 
thewupk said:
They are a sub .500 team with 2 months to go and 2 teams ahead of them. Catching 1 is certainly possible but hoping to pass both seems like too large of an ask for me. They have no shot at the 2nd WC either.
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We gained 2 games in 2 days... they have 9 games left with philly and 8 with the braves
 
clvclv said:
Touki had another really strong outing last night, and is all but "ready" - not particularly interested in moving him, but his strong year has possibly allowed AA to make Gohara, Soroka, Wright, and Anderson off-limits in trade discussions and still be able to dangle Allard and Touki as elite pitching prospects. If we'd have said before the season that Allard, Touki, and Contreras or another piece would get you Archer or Fulmer and you'd still have Folty, Newk, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, Teheran, Anderson, Wentz, Muller, and Weigel people would have said you're nuts - the funny thing is that that's probably the case today.
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After the progress that Touki has shown at his age, he has made his way onto my do not deal list. I believe him to be the highest upside pitcher in our farm system. I'd rather trade Gohara or two of Muller, Wentz, Fried.
 
zbhargrove said:
But Archer's velocity hasn't dipped... okay its down to 94.6 when compared with last year's 95.5 (another "down" fWAR 4+ year with a high BABIP) but is still higher than 2012, same as 2014, and higher than 2016... he hasn't seen any sort of velocity dip... what you are seeing is simple variation. he's a pitcher that sits around 94.5 +/- 1 mph. I don't see how you can put stock on a 1 mph drop when its actually in perfect line with the career average... especially the high velocity year was one of his "worst"
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Archer's velocity will go down eventually. It's just a question of when. He's 29 years old. Every year you go forward, there's a greater and greater chance his velocity starts eroding. If we do trade for him I hope we can squeeze a couple years of good velocity out of him. It's just a big risk.
 
It was suggested the Rays wanted a package containing a young catcher and a controllable OFer. The Brewers have/had the OFers, but now that the Rays got Pham, that need for an OFer may not still exist.

The Braves have several catcher prospects the Rays might covet.

I doubt the Rays will be interested in Gohara. They cold have gotten him for Smyly a few months ago, but instead chose to acquire a sure thing low ceiling OFer in Mallex.

I'm guessing an Archer package contains Fried, a catching prospect, and 1 more good pitching prospect we all concede has a non-zero chance of becoming what Archer is now...think Touki, Wright, Anderson.
 
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I agree on the risk for Archer. To be honest, I'd rather wait till the off-season to trade for an "ace" and include Dansby in such a deal. Move Albies back to SS or sign Jose Iglesias.
 
striker42 said:
Archer's velocity will go down eventually. It's just a question of when. He's 29 years old. Every year you go forward, there's a greater and greater chance his velocity starts eroding. If we do trade for him I hope we can squeeze a couple years of good velocity out of him. It's just a big risk.
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Of course it will go down... but its not like its going to go decline steeply unless there's an injury... sitting right around 95... he has a pretty good window left of effectiveness. Especially with the quality of his secondary stuff and the positive reviews regarding his changeup development.
 
zbhargrove said:
But Archer's velocity hasn't dipped... okay its down to 94.6 when compared with last year's 95.5 (another "down" fWAR 4+ year with a high BABIP) but is still higher than 2012, same as 2014, and higher than 2016... he hasn't seen any sort of velocity dip... what you are seeing is simple variation. he's a pitcher that sits around 94.5 +/- 1 mph. I don't see how you can put stock on a 1 mph drop when its actually in perfect line with the career average... especially the high velocity year was one of his "worst"
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Archer is pretty much the best case scenario for a 2 pitch pitcher. Those 2 pitches are plus or plus-plus, and he has above average control.

What happens to a 2 pitch pitcher when half of his arsenal degrades? I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Archer will not age well. He hasn't exactly shown the ability to add pitches, which he will need to be able to do when his velocity declines.

He is a very risky target, and a definite "win now" move. The Rays would probably be wise to cash out on him sooner rather than later.
 
Enscheff said:
It was suggested the Rays wanted a package containing a young catcher and a controllable OFer. The Brewers have/had the OFers, but now that the Rays got Pham, that need for an OFer may not still exist.

The Braves have several C prospects the Rays might covet.

I doubt the Rays will be interested in Gohara. They cold have gotten him for Smyly a few months ago, but instead chose to acquire a sure thing low ceiling OFer in Mallex.

I'm guessing an Archer package contains Fried, a catching prospect, and 1 more good pitching prospect we all concede has a non-zero chance of becoming what Archer is now.
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Agree that they probably don't want Gohara, but Gohara is a different level of prospect now compared to then. He didn't really explode into a big time prospect until he started dominating with us.
 
zbhargrove said:
Of course it will go down... but its not like its going to go decline steeply unless there's an injury... sitting right around 95... he has a pretty good window left of effectiveness. Especially with the quality of his secondary stuff and the positive reviews regarding his changeup development.
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There's a fair chance that Archer could be down below 94 next year. It's not a guarantee (nothing is), but if he is, is he the same pitcher? Fastball dependent pitchers can struggle when their velocity erodes.
 
Enscheff said:
Archer is pretty much the best case scenario for a 2 pitch pitcher. Those 2 pitches are plus or plus-plus, and he has above average control.

What happens to a 2 pitch pitcher when half of his arsenal degrades? I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Archer will not age well. He hasn't exactly shown the ability to add pitches, which he will need to be able to do when his velocity declines.

He is a very risky target, and a definite "win now" move. The Rays would probably be wise to cash out on him sooner rather than later.
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Go read that article someone posted a few posts ago... he's developing a change up and the reviews have been positive thus far.
 
zbhargrove said:
Go read that article someone posted a few posts ago... he's developing a change up and the reviews have been positive thus far.
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Archer has been "developing a change" ever since he hit the MLB level, and he has always thrown it 8%-11% of the time...just like this year.

His CH has had roughly the same movement and velocity delta this year that it's always had.

Archer's change is what it is at this point. Or do you think the Braves are experts at teaching 30 year olds new change ups?
 
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