2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
The MLB trade deadline has to be one of the best sports days all year. It kills any productivity at the office.
striker42
Well-known member
This. Archer has the potential to help us more this year than any other name that's been thrown about. We just have to limit the potential of it becoming a long term disaster. If Archer becomes a 5.00 ERA pitcher in a year and we gave up a prospect that becomes an elite player, that's a problem.
I'd be more than willing to give up a number of good prospects instead.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
It still appears that Chris Archer will be the biggest name traded today with the #Braves and #Brewers grinding to get him….#Dodgers #yankees #Padres #Athletics #Indians #Cubs #Cardinals have also been mentioned as having had conversations about him with #Rays
Tapate50
Well-known member
I just read where Pitt was having significant conversations about him late into last night.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
I think Gohara and Fried are exactly the kind of guys you give up for Archer. Fried is a 24 year old TJ guy that is still trying to develop. If he isn't established as a starter or bullpen guy in a year he most likely will never make it. Gohara may have the pitches for a TOR guy but he has the physical and mental makeup of a dumpster fire.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I wonder if the Mets will float Jay Bruce now or after the deadline. Would he clear waivers? Or do they see him as a core piece of whatever it is they are trying to do. Owed 13 m in 2019 and 2020.
winter target?
winter target?
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Lol... Fried in a perfect world possible has similar upside I guess... all of the peripherals say you're wrong. Getting out of the AL east and into the NL would be a big boost. Sure, Archer has lost a mph compared with last year, but it is still right in line with his career velocity... last year was his highest velocity year.
Still has a k-rate near 10 and a walk rate under 3... Fried has a loooong way to go to consistently do anything close to that. Let's not even mention the BABIP against him this year has been .343! And last year (the other lack luster looking year) the BABIP against was .325... your claim and the peripherals just don't line up. his FIP and xFIP this year are 3.62 compared with his 4.31 ERA... and 3.40/3.35 compared with his 4.07 ERA last year. In his down year last year he still had an fWAR of 4.6 and has an fWAR of 1.7 so far this year.
His GB and FB percentages are exactly in line with his career norms as well... nothing about his metrics say he's declining one bit.
Southcack77
Well-known member
https://www.tampabay.com/data/2018/...her-never-became-the-ace-youd-thought-hed-be/
Pretty good analysis on Archer's "struggles."
Pretty good analysis on Archer's "struggles."
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Archer's FB velocity
2012: 93.9 mph
2013: 95
2014: 94.6
2015: 95.2
2016: 94.3
2017: 95.5
2018: 94.6
His velocity has been rock solid and all the other metrics are very similar in not the same or even a tiny bit better. Other than the fact that he's had some obvious terrible luck supported by a very high BABIP against. Could someone please tell me how he's declining or looks anything like Julio who saw one partial year with a 93 mph fastball and only one year with a 92 mph fastball or greater since 2012... barely averaging 90 this year. I keep hearing how Archer is another Julio... they are not even close to the same pitcher... style, velocity, metrics... all vastly different. Is it just because they're both black? Good lord.
2012: 93.9 mph
2013: 95
2014: 94.6
2015: 95.2
2016: 94.3
2017: 95.5
2018: 94.6
His velocity has been rock solid and all the other metrics are very similar in not the same or even a tiny bit better. Other than the fact that he's had some obvious terrible luck supported by a very high BABIP against. Could someone please tell me how he's declining or looks anything like Julio who saw one partial year with a 93 mph fastball and only one year with a 92 mph fastball or greater since 2012... barely averaging 90 this year. I keep hearing how Archer is another Julio... they are not even close to the same pitcher... style, velocity, metrics... all vastly different. Is it just because they're both black? Good lord.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Heyman:
"padres don't appear to be at the forefront of archer talks at the moment. rays weren't overwhelmed by their offers. reality is, since SD is really shooting to be great in 2020, perhaps archer fits others better."
Ok, if they came with a relative low ball offer that they weren't interested in escalating that is a little better. Still confusing, but better.
"padres don't appear to be at the forefront of archer talks at the moment. rays weren't overwhelmed by their offers. reality is, since SD is really shooting to be great in 2020, perhaps archer fits others better."
Ok, if they came with a relative low ball offer that they weren't interested in escalating that is a little better. Still confusing, but better.
But do the Rays value any of their OFs more than they would value Contreras? They definitely don't have a Catcher to offer that lines up with any of ours.
striker42
Well-known member
Julio is just a handy example of a guy who saw his fastball velocity decline and his effectiveness decline as well. Archer has kept a fairly steady velocity of 95-96. However, he's now 29 years old. How long is he going to be able to keep that velocity?
Also, Archer's velocity is a full MPH lower than last year. Is this just an outlier or is it the start of a decline in velocity? Will Archer's average fastball drop below 94 next season? Is he the same pitcher with an average velocity of 92-93?
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
It's crazy how many people are undervaluing Archer. Solid velocity, good repertoire, he'll be OUT of the AL East AND controllable. He's almost exactly what we need.
msstate7
Well-known member
Not sure why they wouldn't... 5.5 games out with 2 teams in front of them that relatively inexperienced.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Not really. They're massively talented and have what it takes to win it all, even if they sneak in.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Lol... it'd be such a classic Rays thing to say "Okay guys, final offers needed tonight... show me what you got"
Next Day:
"We were underwhelmed... ehh... we aren't gonna trade him."
I think what's really happening is that they're just posturing till the last minute because it doesn't do anything but help them at this point. He'll be traded to someone and the more I look at his peripherals I hope its us. I just don't want to trade Waters, Touki, Anderson, Soroka or Wright.... for me Pache, Allard, Riley, Gohara would all be options (not all of them of course). I'd also be willing to let Fried go, but I'm very curious to see how his adjustments turn out because he can still be very effective. I'd like to hang onto Contreras unless we could somehow get Realmuto, but I don't think I want to see the prospects we'd have to get rid of to get Realmuto and Archer. I don't think any team could match up to an offer structured around that.
The mistake was not doing their due diligence the last 2-3 weeks and seeing what the market was some of their players. At this point, they'll be better off keeping what they got and trying to go for it instead of selling players for pennies on the dollar. Several of their rental players could still be moved in August if the record does not improve.