nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I dont mind judging results of these extensions ex post but we shouldn't cherry pick when doing so...taken together the verdict has to be positive in terms of increasing value
Waiver deals....
- Thread starter TheRunningAgent
- Start date
I dont mind judging results of these extensions ex post but we shouldn't cherry pick when doing so...taken together the verdict has to be positive in terms of increasing value
Southcack77
Well-known member
I certainly hope you are not accusing me of cherry picking for mentioning the guys that you left out of your list.
Extensions can be good. Often they aren't so good.
I don't have any special affinity for players in the Braves system. I don't think they are more likely to exceed their expected performance simply because they are Braves. I don't think its better to pay current Braves their fair market value than to pay other players their fair market value.
I'm most interested in paying players less than they are worth. Whoever they might be.
If I can do that with an extension, I'm pleased. If not, I don't have much use for them.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it wasn't aimed at you in particular...my point is if you look at these kinds deals they work out well on average for the teams...it makes sense to try to lock up Acuna and Albies in the same way
in contrast signing free agents in their 30s or late 20s tends to work out poorly for teams on average
gotta play those averages
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I agree that Braves farm products shouldn't hold any special value just because we developed them. We need good players regardless of who signed or drafted them.
Now this may change a bit if we are hitting a salary bubble but extensions for young guys like Albies and Acuna usually work out in favor of the team. Even if you sign them to market value deals in their FA years that value is almost always going to be less now than it would be if you signed a market value player for that spot 5-6 years from now. Freeman is a good example of this.
I'm pretty sure any player on a teams 40 man roster has to clear waivers right now to be traded.
A player claimed by another team can be traded to that team if that team is highest in the claim order.
If the Braves win the claim on a player, the other team can give the player to the Braves, pull the player back and keep him, or they can trade him to the Braves. He does not have to fully clear waivers for the Braves to acquire him.
If the Braves win the claim on a player, the other team can give the player to the Braves, pull the player back and keep him, or they can trade him to the Braves. He does not have to fully clear waivers for the Braves to acquire him.
Southcack77
Well-known member
It's interesting.
Freddie would have been a free agent before last season.
So we bought at some cost to his control seasons perhaps:
2017 20.5m
2018 21 m
2019 21m
2020 22 m
2021 22m
So he essentially got 5/106.5, plus the 2.875 singing bonus.
......
The closest comps to market value when he hit free agency would seem to be:
Eric Hosmer 5 years at 21 per with three years guaranteed at 13m behind a player option
Chris Davis 7 years at 23 million.
Hosmer was coming off a 4 WAR season. Davis was coming off a 6 WAR season.
I think Freeman probably would have been considered clearly better than Hosmer when he signed. I think he's clearly better than Chris Davis, but given the season Davis was coming off that might be close? I'm not sure Freddie gets more than 25 AAV.
But one thing is certain, you have to feel good about not guaranteeing 39m for non-prime years or owing Chris Davis 23m per through his age 26.
This deal has worked out.
It suggests a second pretty good value in extensions --- the ability to get prime years at market value without paying for post-prime performance.
I don't like the player the Padres got in Hosmer or their timing or the fit for their club, but the structure of the deal is maybe about as good as they could do. At least they've limited their post prime damage to 13m per year, which would be easier to totally write off, or could be a less than horrific obligation to a diminished player. Course Hosmer has been totally awful in year one, so oops.
Right. Which is why I would do current market value for FA years for Acuna and Albies in extensions. The odds are just much lower that those deals become very bad. Even in cases like Julio now and likely Ender you are still going to be be at worst paying current market value for their production.
It also only makes sense for certain players which Albies and Acuna fit. A Folty extension for example would need to be less than market value if I were GM.
Freddie is likely still the front runner for NL MVP and Chris Davis, while coming off a great year, didn't have the greatest track record. The Orioles stupidly bid against themselves as well.
Also take into account that Freeman would likely have been the best position player on the market last year by a fair margin. JD Martinez got 5/110 so you have to figure Freeman at least matches that, and likely tops it, being that he is younger and generally a more valuable overall player than JD had been up to that point. I think Freeman easily would have gotten a 7 year contract in the 150 million range, possibly more than that.
Wait...what?
Extensions are always signed at a discount over the projected value of the FA years, or no team would ever sign them.
That's the exchange made for guaranteeing years that were previously not guaranteed. The team assumes that risk in exchange for saving cash on 1-2 future FA seasons.
I'm not exactly sure what crack was trying to point out with the Hosmer and Davis contracts. Those guys are in no way comparable to Freeman hitting the FA market after his age 26 season...like...not even in the same realm of value.
Freeman is considered a Top 10 most valuable asset in the game because of the surplus value that contract provides teams.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/
Hosmer and Davis are immovable albatross contracts...
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As excited as I am about Folty taking that next step and the Scherzer comparisons some have thrown around, I'd have to let him walk in 2 years. I mean unless he agrees to a t team friendly extension buying out 2 or 3 FA years, but I can't imagine anyway that happens, especially after the arbitration BS the Braves pulled this past winter.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think Freddie would have been a FA in winter 2016/2017 rather than last year. Not sure, I think
I also believe he'd probably tied into some salary banding by virtue of being a 1B and not being an elite power bat.
But 7/150 would come in right on 21.5m dollar AAV that he actually did get. that would have taken him through his age 33 season. This didn't necessarily help the idea that the extension was essential.
MLBTR just put out their list of Top 20 August trade candidates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/top-20-august-trade-candidates.html
I could see Donaldson, Andrus, Beltre and any of the BP arms as trade candidates for the Braves.
I'm still going out on a limb and guessing the Braves get Donaldson plus cash for a prospect much better than whatever the Jays could get with the 75th pick in the 2019 draft.
I could see Donaldson, Andrus, Beltre and any of the BP arms as trade candidates for the Braves.
I'm still going out on a limb and guessing the Braves get Donaldson plus cash for a prospect much better than whatever the Jays could get with the 75th pick in the 2019 draft.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Just trying to find comps for what his salary might have been on the free agent market. I said I thought them as lower end comps, but I'm not sure Freddie cracks 25 million a year. the truly elite power isn't really there. And he's a 1B.
No argument from me that the Hosmer and Davis contracts are horrible now. I though Hosmer was terrible when it was signed. Chris Davis seemed dumb too.
I don't see it as especially likely..at all. In fact, I probably shouldn't have named him, but he does play on the left side of the IF and could be viewed as help over there.
Votto is likely the best comp. He got 21 million in his 2012 extension. Freeman would of easily gotten 25 million and you'd be paying for a lot of years on the back side of 30. Something that is avoided when you extend young players.