GDT 8-17-18 THE SON OF THE NIGHT OF THE NEWK

TheBravos said:
Folty, Newcomb and Guasman. They all have great stuff. They also have one thing in common. We are waiting for them to make that next step. They show flashes. We have seen them dominate. We have seen the go four innings. They all can be considered above average. Can we really have three of the same type of pitchers in the rotation?

We know a big trade is coming. In fact, by the numbers...a big trade has to happen. So which guys do you trade? My suggestion is to trade one of the three above.

Wright, Touki, Wilson and Anderson have had more success in the minors than the guys in our rotation EVER did and at a younger age. I really hope none of these guys are moved.

Gohora, Soroka and Weigel have lost too much value and honestly are probably worth more to us as even a great bullpen peice than to be traded. We know Soroka probably won’t be moved.

That leaves Allard (who has lost value) and Fried.

Because of this, that leaves us adding a position player in a deal that we do NOT want to see happen (Pache, Waters, Riley). We do t have the future depth to do this.

If we traded one of Newk, Folty Gausman...we would still have plenty of talented arms to fill the rotation. We reset our clock also, by gaining years of control.

In the end I think Wright, Touki, Wilson (short term) should be given a chance , because they are showing more consistancy
and dominance than Newk and Folty ever have.

I don’t want us hold onto #3’s (the “could” be more) and trading #1’s, and 2’s....simply because of experience.

Position wise, imagine if we had three really good outfielders (but none as good as Acuna). We say “Yeah Acuna has had more success at a younger age in the minors and appears to be a long term better player than the guys starting right now, but the guys starting right now are above average players and have more experience....so let’s trade Acuna.”

It sounds crazy when stated. This is exactly what we are about to do with our pitchers.
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I would trade Newk for someone like Happ, Pederson or Kepler. I think Folty and Gausman have reached a level Newk has not and may never reach. I would keep them.
 
I realistically don't think Bryse has a starter's ETA that is too soon so I'd throw out of my mind the idea of seeing him soon. I'm very impressed with him but while yes, he's barely younger than Ronald Acuna, he still has stuff to work on that will lead to him realistically being an August 2019 ETA max, kind of like Touki this year (with him it was a surprise though). AA really rushing him has skewed expectations here.

OTOH we might see Kyle Wright have a shot at breaking camp as the 5th starter and unless he has a setback while pitching in the minors we will see him late May to June 1st at the latest.

You need at least eight starters so I wouldn't say we need to trade to give all of these guys room.
 
nsacpi said:
I would trade Newk for someone like Happ, Pederson or Kepler. I think Folty and Gausman have reached a level Newk has not and may never reach. I would keep them.
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I said Newk was the odd man out and the next day he went out and almost threw a no hitter lol. My opinion hasn’t changed.

He and Folty throw a lot of pitches. We don’t need two guys like that in one rotation.
 
TheBravos said:
I said Newk was the odd man out and the next day he went out and almost threw a no hitter lol. My opinion hasn’t changed.

He and Folty throw a lot of pitches. We don’t need two guys like that in one rotation.
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Newk for Happ is the trade that I think makes a tremendous amount of sense for us and the Cubs.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I realistically don't think Bryse has a starter's ETA that is too soon so I'd throw out of my mind the idea of seeing him soon. I'm very impressed with him but while yes, he's barely younger than Ronald Acuna, he still has stuff to work on that will lead to him realistically being an August 2019 ETA max, kind of like Touki this year (with him it was a surprise though). AA really rushing him has skewed expectations here.

OTOH we might see Kyle Wright have a shot at breaking camp as the 5th starter and unless he has a setback while pitching in the minors we will see him late May to June 1st at the latest.

You need at least eight starters so I wouldn't say we need to trade to give all of these guys room.
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Wison’s last start:
WP: Wilson (3-0) 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K

Wright’s last start:
WP: Wright (2-1) 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K (90 pitches)

Wilson has taken a few starts to get going at each level, but then has straight up dominated at every level. In fact, he might be the most consistent starter of any of our prospect arms.

The thing I like about Touki, Wilson and Wright. They have great stuff BUT they go deep in games. That is HUGE. You can’t be even a #2 and rarely get to the 6th inning.

All three of these guys will probably be ready at the beginning of the season next year.

Folty, Gausman, Touki, Wright, Wilson would be pretty killer. There is a problem.

Soroka...who I also love.

I like Soroka, Touki, Wright, Wilson better than Newk and Guasman. If you put a gun to my head...you could add Fried/Gohora in as a 5th starter and it wouldn’t worry me at all.

Not much experience there, and there will be a few that don’t pan out.

I sure hope they get a chance in OUR orginazation.
 
I call Newk a “stuff #4”, but that is still valuable, especially when he’s playing for league minimum. The best thing about pitchers with the “stuff #4” label is that they tend to maintain trade value because teams continue to dream on the “what if” scenario.

I would not be in favor of trading Newk while he is cheap, or before other young guys have proven capable of sticking in the rotation. So far, only Folty, Gaus and Julio have proven that. That’s only 4 proven MLB SP.
 
Enscheff said:
I call Newk a “stuff #4”, but that is still valuable, especially when he’s playing for league minimum. The best thing about pitchers with the “stuff #4” label is that they tend to maintain trade value because teams continue to dream on the “what if” scenario.

I would not be in favor of trading Newk while he is cheap, or before other young guys have proven capable of sticking in the rotation. So far, only Folty, Gaus and Julio have proven that. That’s only 4 proven MLB SP.
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I'm ok with going into spring training with just Julion, Folty and Gausman as established starters. We have a large group ready to compete for the last two spots: Fried, Gohara, Soroka, Toukie, Wilson, Wright.

In a scenario where we trade Newk, we also have the option of bringing in someone like Anibal to buy some extra time in AAA for the kids
 
TheBravos said:
Wison’s last start:
WP: Wilson (3-0) 8 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K

Wright’s last start:
WP: Wright (2-1) 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K (90 pitches)

Wilson has taken a few starts to get going at each level, but then has straight up dominated at every level. In fact, he might be the most consistent starter of any of our prospect arms.

The thing I like about Touki, Wilson and Wright. They have great stuff BUT they go deep in games. That is HUGE. You can’t be even a #2 and rarely get to the 6th inning.

All three of these guys will probably be ready at the beginning of the season next year.

Folty, Gausman, Touki, Wright, Wilson would be pretty killer. There is a problem.

Soroka...who I also love.

I like Soroka, Touki, Wright, Wilson better than Newk and Guasman. If you put a gun to my head...you could add Fried/Gohora in as a 5th starter and it wouldn’t worry me at all.

Not much experience there, and there will be a few that don’t pan out.

I sure hope they get a chance in OUR orginazation.
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I’m just not going to be convinced that a guy that is still developing his secondary pitches is going to be ready to start that soon, so don’t even try to convince me. We’ll see Bryse next season, but it’s not going to be as early as you want it to happen.
It’s just going to work itself out next year, there isn’t seriously a problem of too many pitchers quite yet even if nothing is done other than let Anibal Sanchez walk (which I don’t think will be the case but still) as you’re going to need at least 8-10 pitchers that can start and yes, we’ll probably see your boy Bryse anyway, I just don’t want it to be too soon for him.
I mean, 2014 was not THAT far long ago. Appreciate the depth instead of trying consistently to trade it away because if you are not careful you can have a season like that with two guys being injured and bam.
 
Enscheff said:
I call Newk a “stuff #4”, but that is still valuable, especially when he’s playing for league minimum. The best thing about pitchers with the “stuff #4” label is that they tend to maintain trade value because teams continue to dream on the “what if” scenario.

I would not be in favor of trading Newk while he is cheap, or before other young guys have proven capable of sticking in the rotation. So far, only Folty, Gaus and Julio have proven that. That’s only 4 proven MLB SP.
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If some starters do emerge and surpass newcomb, couldn't he be a potential high leverage reliever throwing just fastball and curve airing it out in short stints?
 
msstate7 said:
If some starters do emerge and surpass newcomb, couldn't he be a potential high leverage reliever throwing just fastball and curve airing it out in short stints?
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It's just me, but to be honest I very deeply doubt it. He's a starter or a washout for me with the command problems, as I'd really prefer to not have BP guys that have a 4+ BB/9.

But then again, Perez has stuck around forever, so MLB disagrees with me. He's going to have a 10+ year career simply because he throws left handed, and probably end up in the bullpen after 3-4 more years.
 
msstate7 said:
If some starters do emerge and surpass newcomb, couldn't he be a potential high leverage reliever throwing just fastball and curve airing it out in short stints?
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Yeah. That's part of his value. But if we can convert him to Ian Happ, I'd do it. I like the fact Happ can play infield and outfield. He is a switch hitter who hits better from the left side.

From the Cubs perspective they have a surplus of position players and need for pitching.

In some ways, Happ is the position player equivalent of Newcomb. Both have upside. But both have flaws (in Happ's case a high strikeout rate) that they probably will not be able to completely surmount. Even though they are both switch hitters, a platoon of Happ and Camargo at third would work well. The presence of both on the roster would have the effect of lengthening our bench. Versatility is a good thing. If both Camargo and Happ pan out better than expected, Happ can eventually be moved back to the outfield.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
It's just me, but to be honest I very deeply doubt it. He's a starter or a washout for me with the command problems, as I'd really prefer to not have BP guys that have a 4+ BB/9.

But then again, Perez has stuck around forever, so MLB disagrees with me. He's going to have a 10+ year career simply because he throws left handed, and probably end up in the bullpen after 3-4 more years.
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Last season 100 ip = 5.13 bb9
This season 135.0 ip = 4.27 bb9

I think there's reason to believe he can continue to improve command

I'm definitely not giving up on him as a starter though. I do think we should let him skip a start... I think these last 2 are a result of a tired arm
 
msstate7 said:
Last season 100 ip = 5.13 bb9
This season 135.0 ip = 4.27 bb9

I think there's reason to believe he can continue to improve command

I'm definitely not giving up on him as a starter though. I do think we should let him skip a start... I think these last 2 are a result of a tired arm
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But then there is this:

K rate has fallen from 9.7 in 2017 to 8.2 in 2018

Fastball velocity has fallen from 94.2 in 2017 to 93.3 in 2018.

Let's not fool ourselves. There is a small chance that Newcomb will develop into something special. But the key word here is small.
 
nsacpi said:
But then there is this:

K rate has fallen from 9.7 in 2017 to 8.2 in 2018

Fastball velocity has fallen from 94.2 in 2017 to 93.3 in 2018.

Let's not fool ourselves. There is a small chance that Newcomb will develop into something special. But the key word here is small.
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Perhaps they're telling him to dial it back for control purposes.

What are the chances any pitcher we have becomes special?
 
msstate7 said:
Perhaps they're telling him to dial it back for control purposes.

What are the chances any pitcher we have becomes special?
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Whatever the reason you want to look at the difference between the K rate and the BB rate.

For Newcomb it went from 4.6 last year to 3.9 this year.

For Folty it went from 4.9 last year to 6.7 this year.

That's the difference between a step forward and a step to nowhere. That's the difference between an All-Star and someone who isn't.

Let's add in Gausman (someone who reportedly also made a choice to take something off the fastball in exchange for better control) to the discussion. The difference between his K rate and BB rate went from 6.4 last year to 6.2 this year. The thing to note here is the superiority of his numbers (and that doesn't even take into account that he pitched in the DH league) both last year and this year to Newk's.

Any way you look at it Folty and Gausman are a class above Newk. We shouldn't kid ourselves about how much potential Newk has to improve and what the odds are that he will realize this.
 
nsacpi said:
Whatever the reason you want to look at the difference between the K rate and the BB rate.

For Newcomb it went from 4.6 last year to 3.9 this year.

For Folty it went from 4.9 last year to 6.7 this year.

That's the difference between a step forward and a step to nowhere. That's the difference between an All-Star and someone who isn't.

Let's add in Gausman (someone who reportedly also made a choice to take something off the fastball in exchange for better control) to the discussion. The difference between his K rate and BB rate went from 6.4 last year to 6.2 this year. The thing to note here is the superiority of his numbers (and that doesn't even take into account that he pitched in the DH league) both last year and this year to Newk's.

Any way you look at it Folty and Gausman are a class above Newk. We shouldn't kid ourselves about how much potential Newk has to improve and what the odds are that he will realize this.
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What if I told you you can have gausman, folty, and newcomb in the rotation? Who exactly are we running newcomb out of town in favor of right now?

I've never really looked at the difference between k9 and bb9. I always thought k9 to bb9 was the ratio you looked at.

K9 to bb9 for folty...
Year 1 = 8 to 3.01 = 2.7
Year 2 = 8.10 to 2.55 = 3.2
Year 3 = 8.36 to 3.45 = 2.4
Year 4 = 10.36 to 3.68 = 2.8

Folty has been pretty consistent in this stat. His k rate has really improved, and it could be the difference this season. It could also be thd BABIP at .272 (career .312)
 
msstate7 said:
What if I told you you can have gausman, folty, and newcomb in the rotation? Who exactly are we running newcomb out of town in favor of right now?

I've never really looked at the difference between k9 and bb9. I always thought k9 to bb9 was the ratio you looked at.

K9 to bb9 for folty...
Year 1 = 8 to 3.01 = 2.7
Year 2 = 8.10 to 2.55 = 3.2
Year 3 = 8.36 to 3.45 = 2.4
Year 4 = 10.36 to 3.68 = 2.8

Folty has been pretty consistent in this stat. His k rate has really improved, and it could be the difference this season. It could also be thd BABIP at .272 (career .312)
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Advocating trading Newcomb for Happ is not running him out of town. You can look at ratio of K rate to BB rate as well as the difference between the two. Each contains some information the other doesn't, but the latter matters more. Take my word for it, a pitcher with a 9 K rate and 3 BB rate is a good deal better than one with a 3 K rate and a 1 BB rate even though both have a 3:1 ratio.
 
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There was reports that the Cubs wouldn't mind trading Ian Happ for pitching, so while he's a young position player I don't think he's as coveted as people think.
 
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