2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

BeanieAntics said:
This.... was not.... well thought out. Basically what you are saying is that we make the Cubs kick in 50 million dollars just so Heyward doesn't have negative surplus value, and then give them Gausman (a solid veteran #3-#4) plus a top 100ish prospect in Fried just to sweeten the deal for the Cubs even more. For a player who hasn't produced over a 100 OPS+ since 2014 and has rapidly declining defense?

I think we have found the Cub's most expedient route to winning another World Series guys.
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Few issues.

1. Heyward produced an OPS+ of 115 in 2015

2. OPS+ is pretty worthless of a stat. Realize that OPS is a flawed stat. There was a time it was the best stat we had, but then the algorithms improved. But there's a number of issues. First you're cramming together 2 numbers that have different denominators. (SLG is TB/AB OBP is H+B+HPB/PA) second is that it double counts the base hit as it's calculated. Also it deals with the core issues of the stat which is the run value of every input into the stats.

Using a better stay like wRC+ you see Heyward is a net positive right now.
 
zitothebrave said:
We wouldn't need him to produce a 4+ WAR season to be of value at 12M a year. We've been paying Markakis 11M a year for an average fWAR of 1.6 per season. The 4 number was thrown out as a possible thing. Like he could perhaps be a 4 fWAR player not that I expect him to be that. I expect him to be about a 2-3 WAR player for the next 4-5 years.
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OK...but the Braves didn't give up Gausman and Fried for the right to pay Markakis $11M per year...

There is probably a Heyward scenario that might make some sense for both teams, but I think most people are hoping for AA to come up with something better than Heyward in a cOF position.
 
zitothebrave said:
Few issues.

1. Heyward produced an OPS+ of 115 in 2015

2. OPS+ is pretty worthless of a stat. Realize that OPS is a flawed stat. There was a time it was the best stat we had, but then the algorithms improved. But there's a number of issues. First you're cramming together 2 numbers that have different denominators. (SLG is TB/AB OBP is H+B+HPB/PA) second is that it double counts the base hit as it's calculated. Also it deals with the core issues of the stat which is the run value of every input into the stats.

Using a better stay like wRC+ you see Heyward is a net positive right now.
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...

wRC+ and OPS+ stats for Heyward the last few years...

2014: 109 vs 109
2015: 121 vs 117
2016: 71 vs 68
2017: 88 vs 84
2018: 102 vs 94

Those values appear to track pretty well to me. How is one "pretty worthless" when it is very close to the "better stat"?

Heyward is not a good hitter by either measure. He has just gotten himself back to average after 2 full seasons of being pretty bad. He is 29. His defense is declining.

He is not a player the Braves should be targeting, regardless of how much some fans like him.
 
''Chris Archer allowed six runs in four innings in the Pirates’ loss to the Brewers today, and the right-hander now has a 6.45 ERA over five starts in a Pittsburgh uniform. Needless to say, this isn’t what the Bucs were hoping for after landing Archer for a hefty prospect package at the trade deadline, though Archer himself doesn’t feel he’s that far off his usual form. Archer told reporters, including The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel, that he thinks his struggles are “based on some minor things here and there that are easily adjustable.” Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage feels Archer needs to pitch inside more often and move his fastball around the strike zone, though the bottom line is, as Archer said, “I just have to be better, period.”
 
Braves1976 said:
''Chris Archer allowed six runs in four innings in the Pirates’ loss to the Brewers today, and the right-hander now has a 6.45 ERA over five starts in a Pittsburgh uniform. Needless to say, this isn’t what the Bucs were hoping for after landing Archer for a hefty prospect package at the trade deadline, though Archer himself doesn’t feel he’s that far off his usual form. Archer told reporters, including The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel, that he thinks his struggles are “based on some minor things here and there that are easily adjustable.” Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage feels Archer needs to pitch inside more often and move his fastball around the strike zone, though the bottom line is, as Archer said, “I just have to be better, period.”
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In general the Pirates have a pretty smart and disciplined front office. The trade for Archer was a pretty major departure for them both in terms of philosophy and the willingness to pay that contender's premium and more.
 
Meanwhile...

Glasnow with the Rays: 5 GS, 23.2 IP, 12.17 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.06 xFIP, 0.5 WAR

This trade will be a disaster for the Pirates if the Rays turn Glasnow into a TOR monster while Archer continues to regress.
 
nsacpi said:
In general the Pirates have a pretty smart and disciplined front office. The trade for Archer was a pretty major departure for them both in terms of philosophy and the willingness to pay that contender's premium and more.
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They paid the contender's premium when they weren't really contenders.

This is precisely what many Braves fans clamored for the Braves to do the last 2-3 years. I'm glad the FO smart enough not to pull the trigger on consolidating significant resources into a "TOR guy to lead the rotation".
 
Enscheff said:
They paid the contender's premium when they weren't really contenders.

This is precisely what many Braves fans clamored for the Braves to do the last 2-3 years. I'm glad the FO smart enough not to pull the trigger on consolidating significant resources into a "TOR guy to lead the rotation".
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This whole thing reinforces my view that you should never try to trade or sign stars (including TOR pitchers) if you are a mid-market team. You have to grow your own stars and surround them with good complementary players.
 
Enscheff said:
Meanwhile...

Glasnow with the Rays: 5 GS, 23.2 IP, 12.17 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.06 xFIP, 0.5 WAR

This trade will be a disaster for the Pirates if the Rays turn Glasnow into a TOR monster while Archer continues to regress.
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How do his pitches grade out?
 
Glasnow is likely turning back into a pumpkin. Last two starts have been bad and much more in line with the guy the pirates traded.

At 25, he’s going to go from a 5-6 BB/9 to a 3?

I think we know your position on the likelihood of that happening.
 
Gausman and Fried for Heyward would be horrible.

Regarding the Cubs, i'm not sure they go after Harper, they're deep as hell in position players for next year.

Contreras, Caratini
Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Bote, LaStella
Happ, Zobrist, Almora, Schwarber, Heyward

I could see them put some of their money into extensions for guys like Baez, Rizzo, etc. I think Bryant is gonna pull a Machado/Harper and hit the market, but money talks.

I do wonder if they'd give up one or so of them for some pitching which they really need.
 
I don’t really understand what the Pirates were doing, but my baseline assumption is that they aren’t believers in Glasnow or Matthews.

Even so, putting those two and Baz in a deal for Archer is super confusing.
 
zitothebrave said:
We wouldn't need him to produce a 4+ WAR season to be of value at 12M a year. We've been paying Markakis 11M a year for an average fWAR of 1.6 per season. The 4 number was thrown out as a possible thing. Like he could perhaps be a 4 fWAR player not that I expect him to be that. I expect him to be about a 2-3 WAR player for the next 4-5 years.
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Can we PLEASE let the Heyward love go???

Tell ya what - if they'll take Julio straight-up for him and pay the money it will take to make the move salary-neutral (EVERY dime if he doesn't opt-out), why not? Helps clear the 2019 rotation logjam a little, it wouldn't help anything otherwise.

There's not another team in baseball giving up anything of value for Heyward's contract, there just isn't. A couple of hot months simply doesn't change the fact that that's one of the 10 worst contracts in baseball history. Frenchy was a better than average defensive RF who couldn't quite hit as well as Heyward - why not just re-sign him???

The Cubs just traded for Murphy to be their left-handed bat off the bench if Bryant makes it back because they have absolutely no confidence in Heyward's bat - they've got a $184 million defensive replacement/pinch-runner.

Gausman and Fried for Heyward gets you into Teixeira deal territory - maybe worse.
 
nsacpi said:
In general the Pirates have a pretty smart and disciplined front office. The trade for Archer was a pretty major departure for them both in terms of philosophy and the willingness to pay that contender's premium and more.
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They did us a favor, because had we gotten Archer his short and bad starts would've not only lost us games in his starts. But going 4-5 innings would have made our bullpen situation a big mess costing us games he didn't start too (especially during Minter's time out). Gausman also has been among our best starters too. To sum it up, we may be in second right now with Archer but at best I expect we'd be tied with Philly.
 
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