Starting Pitching in the Majors and Minors

If the Braves simply avoid extending pitchers into their 30s, and signing FA pitchers already in their 30s to deals longer than 1-2 years, they will be way ahead of the game. Letting Folty and Gausman walk after their current team control expires will be a good first step in that regard (unlike the extension suggestions recently written by the hacks over at TC).

I'll settle for them just doing that, and not worry about trading legit MLB SPs during years of contention in attempt to maximize long term value.
 
Reverse the process. Which prospects absolutely need a major league path next year?

Touki, Soroka, Gohara and Wright?

Even if you try to cram those 4 into 2 spots, one of the 4 established starters has to go. Who has the most value? Trade that guy because I don't see any of them as a 1 or 2. Folty could be, but his clock is getting short.
 
This stuff usually works out. Newcomb has trade value because he's a living, breathing left hander, and I'd run before he destroys it totally this offseason. I'd rather live with sure mediocrity with Teheran then a guy that could give up 5+ at the drop of a dime. I thought I might be able to live with a Gio like pitcher, I can't. If he breaks out elsewhere, oh well unless we guessed wrong on everyone we have.

But with everyone else:

Touki: Honestly unless he gets destroyed down the stretch and has a bad ST I think he is a starter in some capacity from very early next season even if no one gets moved. He absolutely owned it down the stretch in the minors and it was pretty much the Acuna 2017 like breakout of this season, just as a pitcher. He'll have his ups and downs but he has nothing else to do in the minors.
Soroka: Until we figure out the plans with him, I wouldn't be counting on him for more than 15 starts. I think they're going to be protective of him due to the shoulder inflammation injury.
Gohara: How high is the AA FO on him? It seems much different than Coppy and really seemed that way from the start (even before we learned about the family stuff). I can't blame him for what's going on with him in his family though and he probably deserves a shot again.
Wright: If secondhand information is correct, the Braves seem to want him to make his major league starting debut early next summer unless he has a setback.

Wilson: It's not very popular because he has an absolute bulldog mentality as a starter, but if you believe he can hone his off speed pitches even more, what we've seen so far probably should just be a sneak peak and not (unless there is a series of injuries) he has a legit chance at starting for ML team from early in the season. I think we see at least 10 starts from him too.
 
It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.
 
Carp said:
It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.
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I don't think many thought he was "Lester 2.0" and his bad month is extremely concerning. Perhaps he's tired, but he should have his turn skipped.
 
I'm not even close to ready to give up on Newcomb. With just average control he'd be a very good starter considering how difficult to hit his stuff is. I think there's a good chance that Newcomb manages to cobble together decent enough control to put together a 2-3 year run in his prime where he's a very effective pitcher.

That being said, I wonder if he'd do better out of the pen the rest of the year.
 
Super said:
I don't think many thought he was "Lester 2.0" and his bad month is extremely concerning. Perhaps he's tired, but he should have his turn skipped.
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Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.

He's not pitching well now obviously. I have no problem with people pointing that out or saying he needs his next start pushed back a bit. It's the knee jerk reactions like "we need explore trading him" or "he has lost all his trade value" that several people are posting that have become ridiculous.
 
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Carp said:
Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.
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"I don't think *many* thought...". My point stands. A few did. A few, including myself, were favoring him over Folty. I was wrong on that. And while he looked better earlier in the year, he was getting pretty lucky and his control continues to regress while his k-rate also does. That's...not good.

I'm not giving up on him. But he has a long way to go still to have even average control. It's dreadful at the moment. It's a slim shot he gets to average control. He could be fine with even just "bad" instead of "very very bad" control. But that still seems a long ways away. But hey, Folty improved significantly from last year to now, so maybe Newk can, too.
 
And I've already admitted that I was completely, STUPIDLY wrong on Newcomb. It's stupid to believe a guy with lousy control can beat their peripherals. In the end, he's going to have a season where there was no improvement from 2017. I bet he has a 4 ERA in the end.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
And I've already admitted that I was completely, STUPIDLY wrong on Newcomb. It's stupid to believe a guy with lousy control can beat their peripherals. In the end, he's going to have a season where there was no improvement from 2017. I bet he has a 4 ERA in the end.
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Pretty much. 4.18 FIP last season. 4.19 FIP right now.
 
striker42 said:
I'm not even close to ready to give up on Newcomb. With just average control he'd be a very good starter considering how difficult to hit his stuff is. I think there's a good chance that Newcomb manages to cobble together decent enough control to put together a 2-3 year run in his prime where he's a very effective pitcher.

That being said, I wonder if he'd do better out of the pen the rest of the year.
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This is where the problem lies. Much like Folty earlier on, the control is simply showing no improvement other than for short stretches. That's absolutely not to say he can't eventually turn it around - Folty did. The difference is that this team isn't going to be in a position to have one of its top SPs running out there and trying to "figure it out" moving forward - the window is opening. Soroka (when healthy), Touki, and Wright have all shown much better control and command and are ready. Folty, Gausman, Julio (assuming he's not dealt), and Soroka (assuming health) are all likely locked-in to 2019 rotation spots. Touki and Wright appear to be better options right now, and AA has bags of money to spend somewhere. If AA decides he HAS to have a lefty in the rotation, I still would prefer throwing some money at Patrick Corbin and using Newk in a deal for Realmuto. Send them some MLB-ready arms to get him and help clear the logjam - Newk, Fried, Wilson, Wentz (further away), Beck, A-Jax - whatever it took to make it happen without including Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Touki, and Anderson. While Gohara's control may be just as iffy, putting him in Gwinnett next year for as long as it takes won't be nearly as complicated as sending Newk down to figure things out would be.

I don't think anybody's "bailing on him" as others have suggested as much as they're simply frustrated and coming to the conclusion that he may never reach his ceiling as has been discussed before. With his stuff, he's probably going to still be OK as a back-end guy even if he continues walking 4-4.5 guys per 9 - he just won't be very useful doing that on a team that hopes to legitimately contend since Julio can be that guy to soak up innings that's already getting paid. Soroka, Touki, Wright, potentially Gohara, and eventually Anderson or Muller would be better fits.
 
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Again, until we figure out the club's 2019 plans with Soroka, we should not assume he's the 5th man out of ST next season. I don't think this should be too hard to figure out. He showed that he was ready but because of the shoulder inflammation, they're likely going to baby him and I don't think AA was too happy about how a teen arm got pushed with him even though he decided to shift into winning mode and bring him up early May this year.

That's why although he's probably ahead of the pecking order from Touki, I would not be shocked if he doesn't start early next season for the big league club.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Again, until we figure out the club's 2019 plans with Soroka, we should not assume he's the 5th man out of ST next season. I don't think this should be too hard to figure out. He showed that he was ready but because of the shoulder inflammation, they're likely going to baby him and I don't think AA was too happy about how a teen arm got pushed with him even though he decided to shift into winning mode and bring him up early May this year.

That's why although he's probably ahead of the pecking order from Touki, I would not be shocked if he doesn't start early next season for the big league club.
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For someone not happy with pushing young arms, AA has certainly done quite a bit of it this year.
 
Carp said:
It's funny to see everyone jump off the Newk bandwagon when nearly everyone thought he was Lester 2.0 at the end of June and July.


He's had 1 bad month... Get real people.
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Yeah, the rapid swings in how folks view players is comical. Newk absolutely has value...quite a bit, actually.

The best thing about guys with the "stuff #4" label is that they tend to hold their trade value because so many people love to dream on the "what if" scenario.

Even if he is nothing more than a 2 win SP or a high leverage BP arm that can go multiple innings...that's still a very valuable player due to the amount of cheap control he has and the fact that 2 win MLB players are valuable.
 
Carp said:
Do you not remember the Folty vs Newk thread? Or GeorgiaGirl, thethe, and several others talking about how much better Newk was than Folty? I would suggest going back and re-reading the threads in June and around August 2nd.

He's not pitching well now obviously. I have no problem with people pointing that out or saying he needs his next start pushed back a bit. It's the knee jerk reactions like "we need explore trading him" or "he has lost all his trade value" that several people are posting that have become ridiculous.
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It was rather amusing reading folks try to claim Newk was better than Folty despite me pointing out all the areas Newk was bound to regress. They argued and argued and argued against the data I provided. The most hilarious "point" was tehteh claiming Newk had better control in the zone and threw better strikes than Folty haha. I'll spare you all a list of 20 dumb quotes though.

Folty was struggling with control, but he had shown better control in his MLB career, so it was reasonable to assume he would figure it out considering his stuff isn't declining.

Newk was just Newk with declining stuff...plus a lot of luck. I have been saying it for months. Someone quoted me in their sig as proof of that.
 
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