ROY Discussion

What this race has taught me is how far off rWAR and fWAR can find themselves at times. rWAR has Soto at 2.8 while fWAR has him at 3.5. rWAR has Acuna at 4.3 and fWAR at 3.8. And it's a multiple point disagreement. rWAR has soto as worse defensively, offensively and at baserunning. While it's bullish on Acuna at the same. And I think the defining difference is the value the 2 systems put on getting on base. Soto has a better average and walk rate while Acuna has much more power.

Basically to me it seems like rWAR puts move value on Acuna's defense and power while fWAR nerfs the defensive advantage a bit and gives Soto a big boost because of his BB rate and higher average.

It's clear to me that Acuna is the better player this year, when you say I have a guy who's a better fielder and baserunner you look to the offensive stats. Soto has been the better offensive player, but not by enough.
 
zitothebrave said:
What this race has taught me is how far off rWAR and fWAR can find themselves at times. rWAR has Soto at 2.8 while fWAR has him at 3.5. rWAR has Acuna at 4.3 and fWAR at 3.8. And it's a multiple point disagreement. rWAR has soto as worse defensively, offensively and at baserunning. While it's bullish on Acuna at the same. And I think the defining difference is the value the 2 systems put on getting on base. Soto has a better average and walk rate while Acuna has much more power.

Basically to me it seems like rWAR puts move value on Acuna's defense and power while fWAR nerfs the defensive advantage a bit and gives Soto a big boost because of his BB rate and higher average.

It's clear to me that Acuna is the better player this year, when you say I have a guy who's a better fielder and baserunner you look to the offensive stats. Soto has been the better offensive player, but not by enough.
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They have been essentially even as hitters. There's not enough difference there to say anything meaningful, and it has gone back and forth the last few days.
 
I get the feeling some of Soto's stats are a bit inflated. I'm not saying he's bad by any stretch but he's probably not as good as his .305/.420/.534 line looks.

First, his BABIP is .362 for the year. That's north of what we'd expect from Jose Altuve so I doubt that's legitimate. His BA should probably be closer to .280 than .300.

Next, his contact profile is not bad but not elite. 19.9% soft, 44.7% medium, and 35.3% hard. That's above average but nothing more than that. For context, Acuna's contact numbers are 11.6% soft, 41.2% medium, and 47.2% hard. That is elite. It's hard to draw conclusions from quality of contact alone but it probably points to Soto not being someone who can sustain a super high BABIP.

The only area where Soto seems to have a legitimate edge on Acuna is that Soto strikes out a bit less and walks more. While his lead in those areas is solid, it's not big enough of a lead to make up for where Soto trails Acuna (power, defense, baserunning).
 
I think Acuna wins this comfortably just based the national name recognition and press he and the Braves seem to be getting. In other words, the guys on the MLB channel seem to talk a lot more about the amazing Venezuelan than grandpa Soto..
 
striker42 said:
I get the feeling some of Soto's stats are a bit inflated. I'm not saying he's bad by any stretch but he's probably not as good as his .305/.420/.534 line looks.

First, his BABIP is .362 for the year. That's north of what we'd expect from Jose Altuve so I doubt that's legitimate. His BA should probably be closer to .280 than .300.

Next, his contact profile is not bad but not elite. 19.9% soft, 44.7% medium, and 35.3% hard. That's above average but nothing more than that. For context, Acuna's contact numbers are 11.6% soft, 41.2% medium, and 47.2% hard. That is elite. It's hard to draw conclusions from quality of contact alone but it probably points to Soto not being someone who can sustain a super high BABIP.

The only area where Soto seems to have a legitimate edge on Acuna is that Soto strikes out a bit less and walks more. While his lead in those areas is solid, it's not big enough of a lead to make up for where Soto trails Acuna (power, defense, baserunning).
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Going forward I think that's a good analysis of why Acuna will be better. That said all awards should be based on results on the field and not future projections.

As hitters they are essentially even. Acuna is a better base runner and defender and that should hold weight here.
 
thewupk said:
Going forward I think that's a good analysis of why Acuna will be better. That said all awards should be based on results on the field and not future projections.

As hitters they are essentially even. Acuna is a better base runner and defender and that should hold weight here.
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I totally agree that Acuna's defense and base running give him the edge. I think the fact that Soto has likely been luckier than Acuna this year makes Acuna edge even firmer.
 
thewupk said:
Going forward I think that's a good analysis of why Acuna will be better. That said all awards should be based on results on the field and not future projections.

As hitters they are essentially even. Acuna is a better base runner and defender and that should hold weight here.
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At this point, their OPS is almost indistinguishable in any meaningful way. Soto holds the OBP advantage while Acuna holds the SLG/ISO advantage. So I think it should probably break down by how much value they have contributed defensively and on the basepaths as the tiebreaker, and I don't think it is biased to say so. Acuna clearly has been the superior defender and baserunner. Add in the fact that he is playing on a more competitive team and I think Acuna holds the clear advantage right now. However, if Soto continues to get red hot and finishes with a .975ish OPS while Acuna cools off and finishes with a .900ish OPS, you'd have to reevaluate. I don't think Acuna has it locked up by any stretch, but he is in the lead.
 
Hulavol said:
I think Acuna wins this comfortably just based the national name recognition and press he and the Braves seem to be getting. In other words, the guys on the MLB channel seem to talk a lot more about the amazing Venezuelan than grandpa Soto..
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I dunno about that. This morning MLB Network had a feature on Soto saying he's possibly the greatest 19 year old of all time. He's getting good press too. Will be close.
 
NYCBrave said:
I dunno about that. This morning MLB Network had a feature on Soto saying he's possibly the greatest 19 year old of all time. He's getting good press too. Will be close.
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As he should. His season has been amazing and should be a big deal. Acuna has been amazing as well.
 
I’m personally not one for the subjective measures, but, in an effort to think the way the voters usually think...Acuna’s red-hot second half is arguably the individual performance most linked to the Braves gapping the Phils and Nats. If the numbers end up as a wash, maybe the narrative will be the difference.
 
Julio3000 said:
I’m personally not one for the subjective measures, but, in an effort to think the way the voters usually think...Acuna’s red-hot second half is arguably the individual performance most linked to the Braves gapping the Phils and Nats. If the numbers end up as a wash, maybe the narrative will be the difference.
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Agreed. Soto has been amazing but Acuna is likely the reason the Braves make the playoffs.
 
Things are setting up to almost mirror the 95 season. Grandpa Soto could beat out the young Acuna for ROY (like Nomo did to Chipper). With the Braves beating the Rockies in the NLDS. We won't face the Reds in the NLCS but we could face the Red Birds. Then face and beat the Indians in the WS.
 
Too late for the Kieboom brothers to combine as one to get in on things? Two bombs in two days.

:FrediWut:
 
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Julio3000 said:
I’m personally not one for the subjective measures, but, in an effort to think the way the voters usually think...Acuna’s red-hot second half is arguably the individual performance most linked to the Braves gapping the Phils and Nats. If the numbers end up as a wash, maybe the narrative will be the difference.
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easily been our 2nd half MVP.
 
At this point, if I were voting and not even a Braves fan I'd vote Acuna over Soto. If going by just offense, I'd give Soto a slight edge at this point. But when you factor in defense Acuna passes him easy IMO. Acuna has 7 DRS in the OF (2 DRS in RF, 4 DRS in CF and 1 DRS in LF). Soto has a -5 DRS in LF and hasn't shown good range. Soto also cannot play CF like Acuna can. So Acuna wins this for me all things considered even if Soto puts up slightly better numbers on offense.
 
As much as I'd like to see Acuna win it, unless he goes on a tear soon to take the spotlight, I think Soto wins it.
 
Chipper said:
As much as I'd like to see Acuna win it, unless he goes on a tear soon to take the spotlight, I think Soto wins it.
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Really? I don't think so. I think he would have to get pretty cold and Soto open up a 50-60 point OPS lead in order for him to win it. The modern metrics and traditional stats right now all favor Acuna, except for batting average and OBP. The narrative does as well. Acuna has produced more recently and is on a playoff bound team. Soto could definitely go on a tear, but right now I think Acuna definitely has the lead.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Really? I don't think so. I think he would have to get pretty cold and Soto open up a 50-60 point OPS lead in order for him to win it. The modern metrics and traditional stats right now all favor Acuna, except for batting average and OBP. The narrative does as well. Acuna has produced more recently and is on a playoff bound team. Soto could definitely go on a tear, but right now I think Acuna definitely has the lead.
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I agree with you, but he's a National.
 
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