GDT- 9/27 .....The Attack of the Bobby Sunday Lineup
- Thread starter Hulavol
- Start date
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Pretty sure Duvall played his way off any post season roster with today's game.
wtf
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
That has got to be the most bizarre stat I've seen this year. I do think Teheran has been better than a lot of people have given him credit for, but how in the heck does he have a BAA so low? Is he giving up 2 hits per game, but both of them home runs after a walk or something? That stat is tough to reconcile with what we have seen on the field lol
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
6.4 H/9... to repeat wupk... wtf.
I suspect that is it a lot of the time
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Yea, it’s got to be sequencing: 4.35 bb/9 and 1.33 hr/9 must conspire as events that frequently coincide. Likewise, .221 babip, but when balls are put in play for hits, there are already runners on via walks.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Teheran's .217 leads MLB. The next qualified pitcher is at .238.
He's been enormously lucky to still not have that great a year, but that's the way it happened and he contributed to a division title. So good for us.
He's been enormously lucky to still not have that great a year, but that's the way it happened and he contributed to a division title. So good for us.
chop2chip
Well-known member
And the bloke was worth 0.7 WAR. Probably the least valuable record holder of an impressive stat in history. The Rob Deer of pitchers.
msstate7
Well-known member
2.1 bWAR. I think BR is more accurate on Julio
it's better for what actually happened, in general.
By using RA/9, bWAR assigns defensive success to pitchers...which is not correct.
It then compounds the problem by also assigning defensive contributions to position players in a way that leads to wild outliers of defensive value (both positive and negative) every season for a few players.
I don't even bother to look at bWAR anymore.
It then compounds the problem by also assigning defensive contributions to position players in a way that leads to wild outliers of defensive value (both positive and negative) every season for a few players.
I don't even bother to look at bWAR anymore.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
The next nearest qualifying Brave had a BABIP of .252.
Even if the Brave defense could account for some of the rest of the staff beating the average BABIP, there is no real explanation for why Teheran would be so much better.
According to what I've read, there is little to no evidence that pitcher's BABIP is a skill.
With all the baserunners Teheran had this year, if he his BABIP had even been .255, I'm guessing he would have been below replacement level rather than .7
Which is why I attributed Teheran's especially to luck.
And Teheran has consistently maintained a lower BABIP throughout his career. There is some skill to it, particularly in inducing fly balls vs. ground balls, though it is less controllable than a hitter's. So there is definitely a lot of luck in Teheran's year, no doubt. He hasn't pitched nearly as well as his ERA would suggest. But it's not like luck has brought it down from around .300. More like around .265-.270.
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msstate7
Well-known member
How were our other pitchers' babip this year in relation to previous seasons? Just wondering if our positioning helped knock Julio's babip down (career .268).
That's not how fWAR works
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
bWAR is maybe more accurate of what actually happened...fWAR gives us a better prediction of what to expect going forward
msstate7
Well-known member
I'd say BR has been more accurate on Julio his whole career.
Career bWAR = 16.6 (2.1 avg)
Career fWAR = 11.7 (1.5 avg)
ETA... I used 8 years as career, but probably should've used 6.2 years...
bWAR avg = 2.7
fWAR avg = 1.9
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Nerfherders
Well-known member
His hit numbers were down across the board, but his walks were up (and his strikeouts). However, 45% of his hits were extra-base hits. In every other season of his career that number was below 37%. So walks and extra-base hits. His ISO against this year was .180, compared to .186 last year. He didnt pitch all that differently, just somehow managed to limit singles. Could that be attributed to the defense, or positioning? Very odd.