2018 Offseason And Targets

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Southcack77 said:
I am willing to concede that the Braves best move might be to do very little, but I don't think that does much for their chances of winning a championship any time soon.

I also don't think adding someone that can be expected to be average in most situations particularly moves the needle. Is such a player useful depth? Sure. Is that player worth 1/4 or 1 1/5 of the Braves offseason spending? I don't think so.

Being the high bidder there probably means you've overpaid for average performance. Otherwise why would the Astros not re-sign him. He's getting 400 ABs for them. They obviously have a sense of his value. IF they're not going to pay him, is it wise for the Braves to do it?

Might the Braves eventually produce TOR talent? Sure. Is TOR of the rotation talent overrated to begin with? I don't always think so, but possibly. Should the Braves spend a lot of resources acquiring one...sort of depends in my view. What's the rest of the offseason going to look like? What's the cost?

I don't think it's a matter of being a big budget team vs a medium market team though. It's a matter of where you are in the contention window and what you are giving up. I would not see the point in spending a ton of resources on DeGrom, for example, if you weren't also spending big on addressing the other weaknesses on the team.

On the other hand, if you can acquire Bumgarner for something relatively modest. Then ok. It just depends. If it's Allard why not? I don't think it would be, but sure. If it's someone the org isn't high on. Do it. That is a move that has a non-zero chance of making you a much better team even if it not the favorite. And if you can increase your odds of winning a championship without parting with anything painful then you should do it. Even if it doesn't make you the favorite or it is only a short term impact.
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The Astros wouldn't resign him because they have to be pinching pennies for their upcoming free agents. They have a LOT of guys who are hitting the open market this year and next year. If they want to retain the best of the bunch, they need to do their best to trim payroll and a Gonzalez signing doesn't further that end. I think they'll let Marwin walk. And you were talking about average production. You are right, Marwin has been an average to above average player during his career, aside from a great 2017. The reason he is desirable is because he is average to above average in virtually every imaginable scenario that could be presented to us and we currently have several positions that can not say the same. Ozzie is below average against righties. Camargo is likely going to be below average against righties. There is a good chance our outfield signee is below average against lefties. Dansby is below average at the plate in general. Ender is below average against lefties and average against righties. Signing Marwin would allow us to look at every game individually, identify the least desirable matchup of the day, and plug him in to get the better matchup. He also has the upside to have another 2017 type of season. I would easily buy into that at 8 million per year. Probably at 10 million per year as well. I'm not sure I'd go over that number, but I don't think we will have to. There are actually quite a few players on the market that fit Marwin's player type, although he is the best, so I don't think there is going to be some crazy bidding war for his services.
 
Southcack77 said:
I feel like the Braves have a solid amount of present day, near MLB ready pitching talent that they can reasonably deal from.

I think one way of cutting down on the gross cost of acquiring above average talent is focusing on guys on expiring deals.

AA says he likes to get back control, but I think at certain positions: catcher, starting rotation, third base, the organization isn't necessarily in need of long term answers.

I'm not really prepared to put a realistic picture together of a Braves offseason, but a fantasy picture that I might be happy with is something like:

Bumgarner or Wheeler
Josh Donaldson
Michael Brantley
Francisco Cervelli

Couple of relievers from the Ottavino, Romo, Holland, Rosenthal, etc list. Something below full price closer.

Maybe you give up Allard, Weigel, Joey Wentz and some filler in those acquisitions, but you shouldn't really have to pay that much for an expiring deal. If you do, you walk away from it and I guess that is where my list is fantasy.
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If we trade for Bumgarner, its gonna hurt. The Giants aren't going to deal him during the offseason for the normal type of rental package. Its going to cost us a prospect that we really like plus some filler. I'm thinking something in the range of 50 million in surplus value. At that price point I don't think it is worth it.
 
msstate7 said:
So when should we expect signings to start?
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In terms of big names, not sure, apparently Bryce has picked his team, whoever that is, i'd say Cubs but never know really.

I'd say mid November is when you'll see some signings, early December for bigger names.
 
nsacpi said:
taking into account difference in cost I would try for Walker before turning to Gonzalez
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Really? I don't know man. He had a really bad year and he lacks Gonzalez' versatility (Edit: He did play all over the place this year apparently, but Gonzalez is more used to that idea). He was useless against lefties this year and only had a .713 against righties. Had almost 400 plate appearances total. I think paying him, say, 3-4 million dollars and banking on pre-2018 production is more risky with far less upside than signing Gonzalez to a 7-8 million dollar deal. I think the play should be to offer Gonzalez a deal in the 7-8 million dollar 3 year range first. If that doesn't pan out, turn to somebody like Cabrera for a 2/12 or something. If we exhaust those options, then maybe look to Walker. Don't get me wrong, if Walker turns into 2016 Walker with 2018's versatility, then the signing would be a home run. But he sort of looks like a guy on the decline.
 
BeanieAntics said:
If we trade for Bumgarner, its gonna hurt. The Giants aren't going to deal him during the offseason for the normal type of rental package. Its going to cost us a prospect that we really like plus some filler. I'm thinking something in the range of 50 million in surplus value. At that price point I don't think it is worth it.
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to be honest, I don't see the Giants selling him this winter so that may very well be their ask.

I don't think they would get it. I would not advise the Braves to pay it.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
Really? I don't know man. He had a really bad year and he lacks Gonzalez' versatility (Edit: He did play all over the place this year apparently, but Gonzalez is more used to that idea). He was useless against lefties this year and only had a .713 against righties. Had almost 400 plate appearances total. I think paying him, say, 3-4 million dollars and banking on pre-2018 production is more risky with far less upside than signing Gonzalez to a 7-8 million dollar deal. I think the play should be to offer Gonzalez a deal in the 7-8 million dollar 3 year range first. If that doesn't pan out, turn to somebody like Cabrera for a 2/12 or something. If we exhaust those options, then maybe look to Walker. Don't get me wrong, if Walker turns into 2016 Walker with 2018's versatility, then the signing would be a home run. But he sort of looks like a guy on the decline.
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Walker really turned it around after a very poor first half. I also like Lamb and Dietrich on the trade market. And I'm curious as to whether the Blue Jays pick up Solarte's option. There will be some good choices for us in terms of strengthening the bench.
 
nsacpi said:
Walker really turned it around after a very poor first half. I also like Lamb and Dietrich on the trade market. And I'm curious as to whether the Blue Jays pick up Solarte's option. There will be some good choices for us in terms of strengthening the bench.
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Surely Miami lets Dietrich walk - can't imagine they're going to pay him $4.8 million to play 1B on a team that's liable to be even worse in 2019. That's money they could use to pay down the money they owe Castro and potentially get a usable piece. Surely they'd be better off rolling the dice that a Duda/Matt Adams/etc.-type will come cheaper than $5 million when the music stops and they're looking for a chair.

I like Dietrich as a piece in Atlanta for the same reasons you do, but would you really give up any value for him when you could just give Gonzalez $2-$3 million more in 2019? IIRC, Dietrich is well below-average defensively at both 2B and 3B.
 
We won 90 games without Harper. I think he adds 5 to 8 more wins. We have alot of great young pitching to bring back parts we need. Signing more free agents or trades is going to be expensive anyway so why not get a star.
 
With all this trade talk about Realmuto and AA’s history of working in secrecy, I’m guessing it’s misdirection or far less likely a deal is already in place.
 
elmore80 said:
We won 90 games without Harper. I think he adds 5 to 8 more wins. We have alot of great young pitching to bring back parts we need. Signing more free agents or trades is going to be expensive anyway so why not get a star.
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You'd have to subtract what Nick gave us last year from that Harper total (around 2.5 to 3 wins). Harper is great, but he is going to be expensive beyond what we can comprehend financially as an organization. Like, more than twice the amount we have ever paid to a player in a single season. And a long long contract too. And we're also talking about a rather inconsistent player as well. Harper has put up less than 2 bWAR in 3 of his first 7 seasons. His other seasons were 3.7, 4.7, 5.2, and 10.0.

He's still an awesome player, but we simply can't take on a contract that is going to be a full 1/3rd of our entire payroll. Especially for a player who has had his inconsistencies.
 
elmore80 said:
We won 90 games without Harper. I think he adds 5 to 8 more wins. We have alot of great young pitching to bring back parts we need. Signing more free agents or trades is going to be expensive anyway so why not get a star.
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Harper would help but how much money would we have to spend elsewhere with him with needs at C, bench, bullpen, among other spots?
 
Guys. The biggest hole on the team is front of the rotation pitching. I don't think we go after Realmuto or Harper seriously.
 
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