BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I'm sure there is some, but even if you don't account just for the pitching staff, as Enscheff has pointed out numerous times, a quality pitch framer can add up to 3 wins per year just based off of that.
Market for Catchers
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
I'm sure there is some, but even if you don't account just for the pitching staff, as Enscheff has pointed out numerous times, a quality pitch framer can add up to 3 wins per year just based off of that.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I know you cant prospect hoard forever and we'll have to cash in eventually, but Soroka/Riley for Realmuto would be a way overpay. Although Realmuto would improve the big league team immensely and give the team a legit 1-2-3 with Acuna, JT, and Freddie at the top, but JTR's only projected to get 6 mil which is way less than Grandal.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I'm anti-JT trade, but what point are you trying to make here exactly? If anything, him making 6 million would be a good thing for us.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Yes, his value would give AA more money to spend as opposed to Grandal costing a good chunk of our money to use.
Merrifield and S.Perez for young starters and JT. I don't know witch ones, but I'm sure the Royals would be interested. Then I would use Camargo as part of a deal for a pitcher or left fielder. And I would try and sign Donaldson for 3B and let Riley get ready at AAA.
msstate7
Well-known member
Perez was the worst framer in mlb this year and 2nd worse last season
Then get Merrifield and sign Grandal or trade for Realmuto or Hedges. Or just sign Harper to replace Markakis and go with last years team.
The market for catcher was already thoroughly broken down here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-catcher.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-catcher.html
Your solution for not acquiring a terrible framer is to get Realmuto instead? Have you ever looked at framing stats?
The only viable pitch framers available this offseason are Grandal, Maldonado and Ramos...but only in the sense that he is better than Suzuki.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Think I've come to the conclusion that I'd go for Ramos if we are looking at an offensive first catcher... Grandal's post season struggles worry me... seems to be in his head. Ramos is better at every part of the game than Realmuto
I'm going to guess that no competent team is going to let a 34 poor postseason PAs influence their plans at the catcher position.
He had come crazy defensive issues as well, but I don't think it matters at all. It seemed like a weird case of the yips.
The fact he's a switch hitting cathcher with power who excels at pitch framing means he's a buy to me all day.
And your solution would be? It seems to me that all the catchers have flaws. Money,prospect cost.Can't frame. Can't hit, injury prone. Just sign Suzuki and Harper and be happy! Some fans don't study framing stats.
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Then those fans shouldn't argue about player valuation with fans who do study framing stats because I guarantee competent FOs study framing stats very closely.
I could buy the argument that the Marlins have never impressed upon Realmuto the importance of pitch framing, and maybe he is a candidate to improve dramatically with better analytics/coaching (in fact, I wouldn't even dispute that point of view). However, that is not the same point of view as sticking your head in the sand and remaining willingly ignorant about the value of pitch framing overall.
But I do agree with your implication that it's poor form to criticize a point of view without offering another, so I suppose I'll rehash my preferences for filling the catcher spot again.
1. Grandal for around 5/80
2. Ramos for around 3/40
3. Maldonado for something similar to what Flowers and Suzuki have been paid
4. Trade 2 FV 50 pitchers plus filler for Realmuto
5. Resign Suzuki
6. If none of those 5 catchers can be had at good/fair value, overpay for Ramos or Maldonado
Southcack77
Well-known member
the difference between Grandal and Realmuto's framing according to Baseball Prospectus amounts to approximately 16 runs which is equivalent to 1.6 wins.
The difference in their fWar is 1.2 wins (4.8 for Realmuto career high in his age 27 season, 3.6 for Grandal career high in his age 29 season). Realmuto was good for 3.8 WAR and 3.7 WAR in the preceding seasons, meaning his baseline is better than Grandal's career peak at this point.
If you want to studiously accept the math that Baseball Prospectus advocates, that means Grandal was a very slightly better player in 2018. Now that overlooks the other aspects of Prospectus's calculation of defense but I'm not sure to what degree Prospectus's calculations might replicate fangraphs defensive WAR calculation so I will ignore that. If you did not ignore it they would be roughly the same value.
.....
Grandal is two years older and much more likely to hit his decline immediately. Regression to prior career norms would be a reasonable expectation at 30 if nothing else.
Signing him likely requires a commitment for 4-5 years at top of the market catcher salaries (he should be highly coveted on this market by one of the numerous big market teams that could use catching help) and most probably forfeiting a draft pick. You are certainly going to expect decline over the course of that contract and you will be owing him much more money than he is worth, most likely, at the very time your young core pieces are hitting the expensive years of arbitration and other pieces might be hitting free agency.
Realmuto is going to be comparatively cheap in terms of salary, he will require no post-prime commitment. he will require an investment of prospect equity, though whether that would actually end up hurting is unclear. It remains to be seen where the Marlins are in terms of reasonableness at this point.
Maldonado is credited with perhaps being worth .6 framing WAR, to go along with his rough 1 WAR production over the last few years, leaving him a considerably lesser value as a player than Realmuto or Grandal, though one would also suspect considerably cheaper.
The difference in their fWar is 1.2 wins (4.8 for Realmuto career high in his age 27 season, 3.6 for Grandal career high in his age 29 season). Realmuto was good for 3.8 WAR and 3.7 WAR in the preceding seasons, meaning his baseline is better than Grandal's career peak at this point.
If you want to studiously accept the math that Baseball Prospectus advocates, that means Grandal was a very slightly better player in 2018. Now that overlooks the other aspects of Prospectus's calculation of defense but I'm not sure to what degree Prospectus's calculations might replicate fangraphs defensive WAR calculation so I will ignore that. If you did not ignore it they would be roughly the same value.
.....
Grandal is two years older and much more likely to hit his decline immediately. Regression to prior career norms would be a reasonable expectation at 30 if nothing else.
Signing him likely requires a commitment for 4-5 years at top of the market catcher salaries (he should be highly coveted on this market by one of the numerous big market teams that could use catching help) and most probably forfeiting a draft pick. You are certainly going to expect decline over the course of that contract and you will be owing him much more money than he is worth, most likely, at the very time your young core pieces are hitting the expensive years of arbitration and other pieces might be hitting free agency.
Realmuto is going to be comparatively cheap in terms of salary, he will require no post-prime commitment. he will require an investment of prospect equity, though whether that would actually end up hurting is unclear. It remains to be seen where the Marlins are in terms of reasonableness at this point.
Maldonado is credited with perhaps being worth .6 framing WAR, to go along with his rough 1 WAR production over the last few years, leaving him a considerably lesser value as a player than Realmuto or Grandal, though one would also suspect considerably cheaper.
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Do you think a team relying on young pitchers with questionable control would benefit more or less than the average MLB team from catchers with elite pitch framing?
Can you recall which pick in the draft the Braves will lose for signing Grandal, and what that pick is typically worth?
What do you think the cost for Realmuto will be, in terms of prospect dollars?
Southcack77
Well-known member
Pretty sure it would be the Braves third highest pick, which would be a second rounder if i recall correctly. I'd guess a slot value of roughly 1 million dollars. A figure that could be used to acquire multiple high first round prospects or even more later round prospects who are available for over slot pays. An valuable resource for a team with very little in the lower minors and no access to the international market.
Realmuto maybe something in the range of 60m in surplus value which would roughly be worth about two of the Braves better prospects plus filler of varying degrees based upon how close to the top the Braves prospects going back were.
I'm not aware of any research based evidence on pitch framing saving more runs for young pitchers than veterans, but I'm happy to read anything you'd like to cite to. My understanding is that there is some effort to control for the value of extra strikes that the starting pitching provides.
Correct. It would be a pick around #60 after all is said and done. That is typically a FV 40 guy, who typically carries a surplus value of ~$5M. That is the additional cost of signing Grandal.
$60M in prospect value for JTR sounds reasonable, plus the $15M-$20M he will be paid over the next 2 years is $75M-$80M of resources the Braves must pay out for 2 years of Realmuto...vs $85M-$90M in value for 5 years of Grandal. The value winner is clear here.
No research on young pitchers with control issues benefiting from an elite pitch framer...just common sense. However, logic dictates more opportunities to steal strikes because the pitcher is wild leads to more strikes being stolen. That's just basic arithmetic.
BravesCountry1
Creepy Lurking Stalker
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