2018 Offseason And Targets

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zbhargrove said:
Definitely one of the few front line starters I'd be serious about
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Could anybody possibly line up better with them in a non 3-team deal than Colorado???

Adding Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, and Raimel Tapia suddenly makes the Mutts legitimate contenders in 2020. Adding Tapia allows them to play Conforto and Nimmo on the corners and move Bruce to 1B. Rodgers takes over at 2B immediately. Ride Frazier's contract out this year until Welker's ready to take over for him next season. Extend deGrom and Wheeler, add a C and Closer, and they're in business.

The Rockies trade from their depth to add 3 years of the type of SP they'll never be able to get otherwise. Extend Arenado, and they're in business as well.
 
Enscheff said:
Kiley is still trying to justify his flawed MLB player valuation, even going so far as to intentionally gloss over incorrect math:

"Sheffield likely won’t rank exactly 54th on our next Top 100 in January, but the $29 million figure is about right. Swanson and Thompson-Williams combine for about $5 million more. Paxton is due in the $20-$25 million range for his next two years via arbitration while projected–using the same $9 million per WAR figure that generated the prospect values–to be worth $60-something million in that span. Those figures both add up to around $35 million, which is within the margin for error but a bit lighter than expected for a Paxton package given the wide interest."

FG projects Paxton to produce 4.0 wins in 2019, and will likely project him to right around that figure in 2020. The math is 8 wins times $9M per win equals $72M, not the "$60-something million" he tries to spin off in support of his incorrect valuation. Subtracting $20M-$25M from $72M equals $47M-$52M, again, nowhere near the "around $35 million" he tries to pass off as real math.

Fact of the matter is the Yankees paid about ~$35M in prospects for ~$50M in MLB value, which is a very nice value add. The Yankees found the team who valued Sheffield the highest, and cashed him in for a valuable impact SP. This is exactly what I would like to see AA do with Newk, Fried and to a lesser extent Allard.

There is a reason this trade went down before Thanksgiving and the winter meetings, and that reason is the Ms are morons who got fleeced by the Yankees elite FO.
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Kiley has now tripled down on his MLB player valuation math by making it even more fuzzy so he doesn't appear to be wrong haha.

11:28
Kiley McDaniel: So, the math I did here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-…
11:29
Kiley McDaniel: and landed on $34 million in prospects for $35-50 million in Paxton

Nowhere in that article did he mention a range of $35M-$50M for Paxton's value. He stated, "Those figures both add up to around $35 million", which is now somehow "$35-50 million for Paxton". The range is a direct result of being challenged on that valuation in the comments of his article, so at least he's willing to absorb information.

Dude needs to just stick to scouting I think.
 
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Enscheff said:
I think it was simple: The Ms like Sheffield better than whatever MLB-ready arm AA offered (probably Fried or Newk).

I'm guessing the same group of pitchers will be offered to the Indians, and if they bite, great. If not, that's fine. I do, however, cringe a bit at the thought of the Indians getting Fried into their system and turning him into a monster.

We saw AA refuse to overpay for Archer, and instead pivot to a better value play with Gausman. I am confident we will see him do the same this offseason as well, and I'm hopeful the miss on Paxton shows that he doesn't see the need to add a "frontline starter" as glaring as a lot of the posters around here see it.
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11:37
Will: Paxton seemed like a perfect trade target for the Braves. Do you see them in the market for a Patrick Corbin type of free agent?
11:37
Kiley McDaniel: Paxton does fit what they seem to be looking for, sounds like they made a healthy offer. Corbin fits as a player, but for the contract I think it’s unlikely

I would be very interested to see if anyone could dig up more info on what the Braves supposedly offered.

Just say no to Corbin...good lord that's going to be a bad contract.
 
Reds have agreed to contract extension with their closer Iglesias...actually it is not an extension, they just agreed to a new contract for the final 3 years leading up to free agency

will definitely make him a lot more expensive on trade, IF they make him available. My guess is they don't
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Mlbtraderumors projects our payroll at $135m giving us roughly $50.6m to spend
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Don't think that number is right - as far as Opening Day payroll is concerned - but if it is, there's little reason anybody else should get a chance to sign Grandal. AA should have already talked to his reps and told them "call me when you've heard offers from everybody else he's interested in talking to and we'll talk".
 
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clvclv said:
Don't think that number is right - as far as Opening Day payroll is concerned - but if it is, there's little reason anybody else should get a chance to sign Grandal. AA should have already talked to his reps and told them "call me when you've heard offers from everybody else he's interested in talking to and we'll talk".
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Well he just got new representation today, so that could explain some of the delay or lack of chatter regarding Grandal
 
Lol. I just read the MLBtraderumors article and found out that we owe Bruce Sutter 10 MILLION dollars in 2021. I really hope that the organization has had that money tucked away in a mattress somewhere.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Lol. I just read the MLBtraderumors article and found out that we owe Bruce Sutter 10 MILLION dollars in 2021. I really hope that the organization has had that money tucked away in a mattress somewhere.
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Pretty sure they have - JS was famous for paying things like that off every time he had extra money available.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Reds have agreed to contract extension with their closer Iglesias...actually it is not an extension, they just agreed to a new contract for the final 3 years leading up to free agency

will definitely make him a lot more expensive on trade, IF they make him available. My guess is they don't
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Could do what San Diego did with Brad Hand. Sign him to a friendly deal then trade him to a contending team.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Lol. I just read the MLBtraderumors article and found out that we owe Bruce Sutter 10 MILLION dollars in 2021. I really hope that the organization has had that money tucked away in a mattress somewhere.
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If I where a player I would be hiring his agent. He turned a 9 million dollar contract into 45 million. Boras doesn’t have anything on that guy.
 
Heyward said:
Could do what San Diego did with Brad Hand. Sign him to a friendly deal then trade him to a contending team.
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This deal doesn't add any value whatsoever though. It's not really an extension, just a move that potentially saves the Reds money. And while it may save a small amount of money over the next 3 years, the money is guaranteed, which adds more risk if he does get injured.
 
Spangenberg dropped by the Padres. He might make a decent budget LHH bench option until Riley is ready...essentially a modest upgrade to the role Flaherty played.
 
I've been hearing a lot about Edwin Diaz lately. As much as I'm opposed to making a significant deal for a SP, my feelings are even stronger that we should spend significant resources on a reliever. I wouldn't mind a medium sized bullpen upgrade, but Diaz would cost an absolute assload. 4 years of control for a 24 year old closer coming off phenomenal season. A player like that will take a king's ransom, if the trends of the last few years stay true.

I really hope we don't end up blowing the farm on a SP and/or a closer. It just seems like such a bad investment for us.
 
Enscheff said:
Spangenberg dropped by the Padres. He might make a decent budget LHH bench option until Riley is ready...essentially a modest upgrade to the role Flaherty played.
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I feel like Cory would be somewhere near the bottom of our potential bench options, but if we end up spending heavily on C and OF, then end up dipping our feet into the SP/RP market, then he might be about all we could afford.
 
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