I think that the Phillies think that they are closer than I think they actually are. I think.
they've just played their hand poorly, IMO. their signings last offseason didn't make much sense to me.
santana pushed their 1B to LF where he was terrible. santana wasn't good himself on defense and disappointed with the bat. they didn't seem to really care about defense at all. it hurt them repeatedly. they also signed him super early, to a deal he clearly would not have received if they had waited. but to be fair, no one knew last year's market would play out like that.
i guess i could see arrieta, but he was clearly declining and despite their hanging on last year, he didn't put them over the top, or even make them a contender.
it was just poorly thought-out, poorly spent money. they didn't seem to have a real plan in place. and that makes this offseason tough on them. unloading santana will be tough, and he doesn't really have a position on the current team (3B?!). their OF is a mess of bad defenders who can't hit nearly well enough to make up for it (like, not even close to well enough). kingery was a total mess last year, franco stunk again. hernandez is their 2nd best position player at the moment.
signing harper is well and dandy. he's a poor defender himself. that forces them to either move odubel back to CF (can he rebound defensively?) or move him to LF and have quinn man CF. who plays 3B and SS, and who catches?
then they need to figure out their pitching, as they will absolutely need more depth than they did last year, and they absolutely have no depth.
they're going to have to spend a boatload of money and spend it all very wisely, IMO, to get where they apparently think they're close to.