2018 Offseason And Targets

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I just saw Anthopoulos on High Heat and he gave a strong impression that he is going to be standing pat on the rotation. He said sticking with the young guys is "the direction we're heading right now" and that he won't make a move unless he is getting a good value. Obviously, the Bumgarner speculation on here doesn't qualify as that.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I just saw Anthopoulos on High Heat and he gave a strong impression that he is going to be standing pat on the rotation. He said sticking with the young guys is "the direction we're heading right now" and that he won't make a move unless he is getting a good value. Obviously, the Bumgarner speculation on here doesn't qualify as that.
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I was told by a very intelligent baseball mind that this isn’t the case.
 
Southcack77 said:
Folty:

2014 Astros 18 IP 0 WAR
2015 Braves 86 IP -.1 WAR
2016 Braves 123 IP 1.3 WAR
2017 Braves 154 IP 1.8 WAR
2018 Braves 183 IP 3.9 WAR

Newcomb:

2017 Braves 100 IP 1.3 WAR
2018 Braves 164 IP 1.9 WAR


Those are the two best performers of all the guys the Braves have tried. I don't think its particularly realistic to expect that Soroka, Touissant, Wilson, Weigel, or Wright will do better.

In any event adding a guy who probably will be better than those guys hardly hurts the team. It just makes things deeper. Just becomes a matter of whether the salary fits. I'd argue Bumgarner is more affordable than Donaldson for the upgrade provided. And I don't think he blocks the Braves from addressing their last true need: cOF.

But I ain't married to it. Just if the deal is pretty reasonable. I suspect the Giants won't move him till the deadline. And that will be a less risky time to assess where he is. And he'll cost less dollars, but perhaps more prospects.
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I don't have the time to review all of our prospects, but of the guys who have spent time in the MLB, I think Soroka has the best shot to be a 2+ WAR player as soon as next season if healthy. Brilliant walk and K rate. Good stuff. Nice velo. He had a 3rd of Newk's WAR in 5 starts to Newk's 30. I think his health is very much a question mark right now though.
 
nsacpi said:
I think the odds are better than even that one of Soroka, Toussaint, Wilson, Weigel, Wright, Gohara and Fried puts up 2 WAR or more as a starter in 2019.
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That is a board bet I would make.

I don't think any of those guys will have 2 win seasons in 2019.

I think it is false that anyone would give 50-50 odds that one of those guys would --- assuming of course we don't acquire a legitimate fourth starter.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Once again, our starting rotation last year ranked 4th in ERA league wide. It's not a liability.
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Right, and I've been told that ERA is stupid, right?

We were 12th in FIP and 15th in xFIP and we lost our 2nd best starter. Oh ya, we were 28th in BB/9, #1 in BABIP, #5 in strand rate, #3 in HR/FB.

Sorry man, but that ERA looks like smoke and mirrors and literally every peripheral in the book would agree.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
I just saw Anthopoulos on High Heat and he gave a strong impression that he is going to be standing pat on the rotation. He said sticking with the young guys is "the direction we're heading right now" and that he won't make a move unless he is getting a good value. Obviously, the Bumgarner speculation on here doesn't qualify as that.
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lol, you write this and then I read all over this board that nobody should listen to AA because he's always saying one thing and doing another? Didn't he also say we were set on the IF and then immediately signs Donaldson?

Which is it?
 
Southcack77 said:
That is a board bet I would make.

I don't think any of those guys will have 2 win seasons in 2019.

I think it is false that anyone would give 50-50 odds that one of those guys would --- assuming of course we don't acquire a legitimate fourth starter.
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Oh I'll insta-call that bet. I want in on that action. I'd definitely bet that one of those 7 guys will crack 2 WAR next year. Sig bet?
 
So have the Indians announced they're going into full rebuilding mode now like Arizona and Detroit have?

I assume they realize their window is pretty much done?
 
CrazyTrain said:
Right, and I've been told that ERA is stupid, right?

We were 12th in FIP and 15th in xFIP and we lost our 2nd best starter. Oh ya, we were 28th in BB/9, #1 in BABIP, #5 in strand rate, #3 in HR/FB.

Sorry man, but that ERA looks like smoke and mirrors and literally every peripheral in the book would agree.
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We were 7th in WHIP. 2nd in BAA. 3rd in OPS against.

We were #1 in Defense Independent ERA Ratio.

Even if you want to look at us being 12th in FIP or 15th in xFIP, at worst we were average. To call our staff a liability is dumb. There are plenty of metrics that suggest we had an above average rotation.

And lets not forget that a good portion of our starts came from young guys who are first getting their feet wet in the majors. A lot of those guys are going to improve upon last year.
 
Southcack77 said:
That is a board bet I would make.

I don't think any of those guys will have 2 win seasons in 2019.

I think it is false that anyone would give 50-50 odds that one of those guys would --- assuming of course we don't acquire a legitimate fourth starter.
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Meh, 2 is a pretty low bar given that they consider that to be "MLB regular". Hell, Newk got close last year and he was one of the worst starters in baseball in the 2nd half. Soroka would be my bet if he can stay healthy. Wright has the skill set, but probably won't pitch enough.

The real problem is that if 2-3 of those guys are getting enough innings to get to 2 WAR, it won't even matter because we won't be winning anything anyway.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I just saw Anthopoulos on High Heat and he gave a strong impression that he is going to be standing pat on the rotation. He said sticking with the young guys is "the direction we're heading right now" and that he won't make a move unless he is getting a good value. Obviously, the Bumgarner speculation on here doesn't qualify as that.
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"We're happy with our infield"

Reports have them checking on every one of these guys that is rumored to be available. AA wants to do something there, but evidence suggests he's not going to overpay for anything simply because he has a deep org.
 
Southcack77 said:
"We're happy with our infield"

Reports have them checking on every one of these guys that is rumored to be available. AA wants to do something there, but evidence suggests he's not going to overpay for anything simply because he has a deep org.
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I take him at his word when he says he's not going to do anything unless he is getting good value on it, simply because he's made sure to get good value on every move he has made so far in his tenure. The reason I don't think a major SP trade is going to happen is because there isn't a lot of value to be had in the market right now. You're not getting it on a Bumgarner trade for sure. Maybe you could get fair value from the Indians, but I don't think AA is going to trade multiple top pitching prospects for a SP either, which is what fair value would end up being.

I just don't see us adding the proverbial "ToR Starting Pitcher" this offseason unless something unexpected happens within the market. The bullpen on the other hand... I could see something happening there, right or wrong.
 
BeanieAntics said:
We were 7th in WHIP. 2nd in BAA. 3rd in OPS against.

We were #1 in Defense Independent ERA Ratio.

Even if you want to look at us being 12th in FIP or 15th in xFIP, at worst we were average. To call our staff a liability is dumb. There are plenty of metrics that suggest we had an above average rotation.

And lets not forget that a good portion of our starts came from young guys who are first getting their feet wet in the majors. A lot of those guys are going to improve upon last year.
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The rotation was decidedly average and buoyed by elite defensive play last season, to say otherwise based on ERA, BAA and WHIP is disingenuous at best. Our luck stats were through the roof, some of which can be attributed to the defense, but HR/FB isn't. We also currently don't have our #2 best pitcher from last season. We were also 12th in WAR.

If you don't think our current rotation is a liability, I have no idea how to otherwise explain it to you.

Folty
?
Gausman
Newk
?

That rotation isn't scaring anyone.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
I take him at his word when he says he's not going to do anything unless he is getting good value on it, simply because he's made sure to get good value on every move he has made so far in his tenure. The reason I don't think a major SP trade is going to happen is because there isn't a lot of value to be had in the market right now. You're not getting it on a Bumgarner trade for sure. Maybe you could get fair value from the Indians, but I don't think AA is going to trade multiple top pitching prospects for a SP either, which is what fair value would end up being.

I just don't see us adding the proverbial "ToR Starting Pitcher" this offseason unless something unexpected happens within the market. The bullpen on the other hand... I could see something happening there, right or wrong.
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So I guess the rebuild is still on then and Donaldson is just a reach for a draft pick?
 
BeanieAntics said:
Oh I'll insta-call that bet. I want in on that action. I'd definitely bet that one of those 7 guys will crack 2 WAR next year. Sig bet?
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I'm good with funsies in an official thread or a nominal amount to charity or other. Not crazy about sigs, because I'd never think of anything great if I won. But if you want, that's fine I guess if you promise to be nice. I'm sensitive.

I'm assuming fWAR since that's what I've been talking about.

If you want to wait closer to opening day to finalize, I'm good with that too. If I were you, I'd want to see if the Braves made an acquisition and to see how Soroka is doing.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm good with funsies in an official thread or a nominal amount to charity or other. Not crazy about sigs, because I'd never think of anything great if I won. But if you want, that's fine I guess if you promise to be nice. I'm sensitive.

I'm assuming fWAR since that's what I've been talking about.

If you want to wait closer to opening day to finalize, I'm good with that too. If I were you, I'd want to see if the Braves made an acquisition and to see how Soroka is doing.
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Yeah we'll be sportsmanlike about it. We'll do fWAR, set the threshold at 2.0 fWAR, and I suppose I won't set an injury contingency since we are dealing with a multitude of players.

And yeah we'll wait until ST to finalize anything to see how the rotation shakes out this offseason. I'm pretty confident at least one of those guys will reach that threshold if given 30+, but if we lean heavy on a committee approach like last year then I might lose it. I just think that we have enough spots open for 1 or 2 of those guys to get enough starts.
 
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