2018 Offseason And Targets

[Carp]

Teams are finally willing to say no...

They may have the money, but when is it "not worth" getting hung with a monster contract. It never works out. I think what has gotten out of control is agents setting up reasonable expectations for players.

Not really. What we have is an issue of payrolls, specifically lower market teams that refuse to add payroll. When it's 2019 and you still have teams rolling with a payroll under 50 million, it's embarrassing. For the good of the sport, there needs to a strict cap floor (say 75 million), and not just a team full of league minimum players.

 

[DirkPiggler]

Not really. What we have is an issue of payrolls, specifically lower market teams that refuse to add payroll. When it's 2019 and you still have teams rolling with a payroll under 50 million, it's embarrassing. For the good of the sport, there needs to a strict cap floor (say 75 million), and not just a team full of league minimum players.

1. Increase minimum salary to $1MM.
2. Cut years of control from 6 to 5, with the year cut being the final arbitration year (3 yrs at league minimum, 2 years arb).
3. Allow teams to buy out of long-term contracts for 25% of remaining money for players who finish in the bottom 25% of their position group in production for two straight years (The Upton/Heyward rule).
4. Contract the Marlins.

Players get higher minimum salaries and get to free agency faster. Owners get the ability to get out of truly horrific contracts, which also gives players the benefit of getting back to higher AAV contracts. Everybody wins with the Marlins going away.

 

[Super]

Copays obsession with pitching prospects is coming home to roost

lol

 

[Super]

In what way?

it's really not. that makes very very little sense.

 

[Carp]

1. Increase minimum salary to $1MM.
2. Cut years of control from 6 to 5, with the year cut being the final arbitration year (3 yrs at league minimum, 2 years arb).
3. Allow teams to buy out of long-term contracts for 25% of remaining money for players who finish in the bottom 25% of their position group in production for two straight years (The Upton/Heyward rule).
4. Contract the Marlins.

Players get higher minimum salaries and get to free agency faster. Owners get the ability to get out of truly horrific contracts, which also gives players the benefit of getting back to higher AAV contracts. Everybody wins with the Marlins going away.

I like that overall, but I doubt players would go for that %25 buyout.

 

[nsacpi]

Machado and Harper (and their agents) have made some mistakes this off-season.

There was a point when Machado could have signed with the Yankees and Harper with the Dodgers. Both teams decided to pivot away because of what the players were looking for as well as the slowness of their decision making.

They also seem not to have recognized that time is not on their side. They have not recognized this in spite of abundant evidence the past few off-seasons that prices drop the deeper you get into the off-season. They probably thought they were special. And they are. But maybe not so special as to defy a growing reluctance on the part of teams to agree to both high AAV and long deals. Players can get one or the other. But it is increasingly unrealistic for them to think they can get both. And Machado especially seems to have been unrealistic about this. Harper has 10 year offers on the table from multiple teams. But he and Boras apparently think they can squeeze a bit more from someone.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I agree the Braves don't have much money but an inury prone 31 year old Pollock for 4 years isn't something a team like the Braves should gamble on right now.

The point is: Teams entering their window of opportunity need to fill holes (RF, C......CL.........SP) either through signing a FA, even if it costs a pick, or through trade. AA has fixed 3B. And he's sat on his hands the rest of the offseason in an apparent state of no money and unwillingness to trade from the prospect stockpile. That indicates that AA doesn't see 2019 as a necessity type year but more of a continued developmental year. He's willing to add incremental pieces (either a significant player on a short contract like Donaldson or retreads who bring professionalism as their main stock in trade not ability anymore, like McCann and Markakis. OK, that's fine if in your mind the Braves aren't winning anything in 2019, unless by lucky happenstance, and you're ok with that because it's a developmental year. That's mainly ok because they didn't give up anything for Donaldson, McCann and Markakis but short term money - no talent, no long term commitment. At least there's a plan in that line of thinking. I don't like it but can understand and accept it, while saying it's where I thought we would be in 2019 way back in 2015/16 when I was calling for the trade of Freeman.

Where you lose me is when you get late in the FA/trade season and have held off making ANY moves (including upgrading the OF with Pollock or signing Grandal for C) that move the competitive needle for 2019 IF IT COSTS talent, even draft position talent, and then turn around and add a soft tossing, aging LH starting pitcher to add to a crowded rotation with SP prospects coming out of your ears and/or add a closer who's shown signs of decline at the cost of talent just because they seem more affordable in terms of dollars and years. It's not consistent with the plan which means you have no plan.

Braves fans as so hungry for something good to happen that if AA signs Keuchel and/or Kimbrel tomorrow they'll be running around talking about what kind of genius he is while I say he would be an idiot who's being run by the show not running the show.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Machado and Harper (and their agents) have made some mistakes this off-season.

There was a point when Machado could have signed with the Yankees and Harper with the Dodgers. Both teams decided to pivot away because of what the players were looking for as well as the slowness of their decision making.

They also seem not to have recognized that time is not on their side. They have not recognized this in spite of abundant evidence the past few off-seasons that prices drop the deeper you get into the off-season. They probably thought they were special. And they are. But maybe not so special as to defy a growing reluctance on the part of teams to agree to both high AAV and long deals. Players can get one or the other. But it is increasingly unrealistic for them to think they can get both. And Machado especially seems to have been unrealistic about this. Harper has 10 year offers on the table from multiple teams. But he and Boras apparently think they can squeeze a bit more from someone.

I think a lot of this is Boras. He wants everyone paying attention to him, the belle of the ball, as he makes his grand entrance. If he can hold up essentially an entire FA offseason, then he gets 5 months with all eyes on him and by extension his clients.

 

[Southcack77]

Machado and Harper (and their agents) have made some mistakes this off-season.

There was a point when Machado could have signed with the Yankees and Harper with the Dodgers. Both teams decided to pivot away because of what the players were looking for as well as the slowness of their decision making.

They also seem not to have recognized that time is not on their side. They have not recognized this in spite of abundant evidence the past few off-seasons that prices drop the deeper you get into the off-season. They probably thought they were special. And they are. But maybe not so special as to defy a growing reluctance on the part of teams to agree to both high AAV and long deals. Players can get one or the other. But it is increasingly unrealistic for them to think they can get both. And Machado especially seems to have been unrealistic about this. Harper has 10 year offers on the table from multiple teams. But he and Boras apparently think they can squeeze a bit more from someone.

I wonder if Machado had spent the last year being a model of cooperation and hustle whether his market would be a bigger. I feel like he hurt his perception in the last season or so.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

From yesterday

Craig Mish
‏
Verified account

@CraigMish
22h22 hours ago
More Craig Mish Retweeted Mexican Braves Fan
Final Four teams I gave 3 days ago remain the same. LA probably 4th now. Standing firm as always on opinion of Marlins 1st preference is an ATL deal but I’m not privy to info beyond that as of this moment.

 

[TheBravos]

So...although it has been frustrating...I like what AA is doing the more I think about it.

1. If the season starts today... we have a competitive team and we have ALL our prospects.

2. With the one year deals AND if you take away Nick, Flowers and Julio’s options...we literally have $30 million in real contracts on the books (which is Ender and Freddie).

Add other players back in and we probably have more money next year to play with than this year.

Hopefully we add more back to that before the season starts, but the fact is....AA is making us competitive in the present while also setting us up in the future, while the Nats, Phil’s and Mets have gained more ground...it’s been at a ton of risk and payroll for the future.

I’m pretty sure Coppy would have traded half our prospects and added bad payroll at this point. He was horrible at managing a MLB roster.

 

[Southcack77]

The point is: Teams entering their window of opportunity need to fill holes (RF, C......CL.........SP) either through signing a FA, even if it costs a pick, or through trade. AA has fixed 3B. And he's sat on his hands the rest of the offseason in an apparent state of no money and unwillingness to trade from the prospect stockpile. That indicates that AA doesn't see 2019 as a necessity type year but more of a continued developmental year. He's willing to add incremental pieces (either a significant player on a short contract like Donaldson or retreads who bring professionalism as their main stock in trade not ability anymore, like McCann and Markakis. OK, that's fine if in your mind the Braves aren't winning anything in 2019, unless by lucky happenstance, and you're ok with that because it's a developmental year. That's mainly ok because they didn't give up anything for Donaldson, McCann and Markakis but short term money - no talent, no long term commitment. At least there's a plan in that line of thinking. I don't like it but can understand and accept it, while saying it's where I thought we would be in 2019 way back in 2015/16 when I was calling for the trade of Freeman.

Where you lose me is when you get late in the FA/trade season and have held off making ANY moves (including upgrading the OF with Pollock or signing Grandal for C) that move the competitive needle for 2019 IF IT COSTS talent, even draft position talent, and then turn around and add a soft tossing, aging LH starting pitcher to add to a crowded rotation with SP prospects coming out of your ears and/or add a closer who's shown signs of decline at the cost of talent just because they seem more affordable in terms of dollars and years. It's not consistent with the plan which means you have no plan.

Braves fans as so hungry for something good to happen that if AA signs Keuchel and/or Kimbrel tomorrow they'll be running around talking about what kind of genius he is while I say he would be an idiot who's being run by the show not running the show.

The plan should be to put the best team on the field in 2019 that you absolutely can without materially altering the team's ability to win down the road.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

So...although it has been frustrating...I like what AA is doing the more I think about it.

1. If the season starts today... we have a competitive team and we have ALL our prospects.

2. With the one year deals AND if you take away Nick, Flowers and Julio’s options...we literally have $30 million in real contracts on the books (which is Ender and Freddie).

Add other players back in and we probably have more money next year to play with than this year.

Hopefully we add more back to that before the season starts, but the fact is....AA is making us competitive in the present while also setting us up in the future, while the Nats, Phil’s and Mets have gained more ground...it’s been at a ton of risk and payroll for the future.

I’m pretty sure Coppy would have traded half our prospects and added bad payroll at this point. He was horrible at managing a MLB roster.

So you like the idea of potentially punting a year after winning the division. I know this isn’t technically punting. But he didn’t improve the positions he said he was targeting. Instead he upgraded 3rd and bench. And we again get to watch slow running, noodle arm neck protrling RF. Hopefully we hang long enough to pay a higher price for midsession upgrades instead of just addressing them this offseason.

 

[TheBravos]

The plan should be to put the best team on the field in 2019 that you absolutely can without materially altering the team's ability to win down the road.

Agreed. I love Kimbrel and am “ok” on Keuchel, but they are both older pitchers that probably have their best years behind them. Not that they will not be good players going forward...I just don’t think you sign them unless it’s a one or two year deal (which will not happen).

 

[Southcack77]

So you like the idea of potentially punting a year after winning the division. I know this isn’t technically punting. But he didn’t improve the positions he said he was targeting. Instead he upgraded 3rd and bench. And we again get to watch slow running, noodle arm neck protrling RF. Hopefully we hang long enough to pay a higher price for midsession upgrades instead of just addressing them this offseason.

Punting? Lol.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The plan should be to put the best team on the field in 2019 that you absolutely can without materially altering the team's ability to win down the road.

I agree with that which is why losing a draft pick to a QO is a bad idea. Signing Keuchel or Kimbrel as signings of opportunity on short terms high AAV only helps 2019 and hurts beyond because of the loss of a pick. Signing either to more than 1 year, unless it's at a ridiculously reduced AAV, is a non starter because of their age and career timing.

 

[CrazyTrain]

The point is: Teams entering their window of opportunity need to fill holes (RF, C......CL.........SP) either through signing a FA, even if it costs a pick, or through trade. AA has fixed 3B. And he's sat on his hands the rest of the offseason in an apparent state of no money and unwillingness to trade from the prospect stockpile. That indicates that AA doesn't see 2019 as a necessity type year but more of a continued developmental year. He's willing to add incremental pieces (either a significant player on a short contract like Donaldson or retreads who bring professionalism as their main stock in trade not ability anymore, like McCann and Markakis. OK, that's fine if in your mind the Braves aren't winning anything in 2019, unless by lucky happenstance, and you're ok with that because it's a developmental year. That's mainly ok because they didn't give up anything for Donaldson, McCann and Markakis but short term money - no talent, no long term commitment. At least there's a plan in that line of thinking. I don't like it but can understand and accept it, while saying it's where I thought we would be in 2019 way back in 2015/16 when I was calling for the trade of Freeman.

Where you lose me is when you get late in the FA/trade season and have held off making ANY moves (including upgrading the OF with Pollock or signing Grandal for C) that move the competitive needle for 2019 IF IT COSTS talent, even draft position talent, and then turn around and add a soft tossing, aging LH starting pitcher to add to a crowded rotation with SP prospects coming out of your ears and/or add a closer who's shown signs of decline at the cost of talent just because they seem more affordable in terms of dollars and years. It's not consistent with the plan which means you have no plan.

Braves fans as so hungry for something good to happen that if AA signs Keuchel and/or Kimbrel tomorrow they'll be running around talking about what kind of genius he is while I say he would be an idiot who's being run by the show not running the show.

Everything AA has done so far this offseason points to this being another developmental year. JD is just an expensive draft pick. Nick is a band aid. He hasn't addressed the rotation. Catcher was a lateral move at best.

I guess he's hoping the rotation can make major strides this year and he can better evaluate the needs next offseason? Bad part will be what value is lost from our starters like Newk, Fried, etc...

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Punting? Lol.

It's worse than punting. It's indecisive. It's a half in, half out, hope to get lucky strategy.

If you're going to rebuild then do that.

If you're going to contend then do that.

If you get to the point that you should contend, but don't have the ability or desire to address weaknesses to really contend, then your plan was flawed and subject to failure depending on how you navigate.

 

[TheBravos]

So you like the idea of potentially punting a year after winning the division. I know this isn’t technically punting. But he didn’t improve the positions he said he was targeting. Instead he upgraded 3rd and bench. And we again get to watch slow running, noodle arm neck protrling RF. Hopefully we hang long enough to pay a higher price for midsession upgrades instead of just addressing them this offseason.

I wouldn’t say punting. I still think AA makes moves, but he is totally fine NOT making another move.

He is taking anything he can get that he deems a positive deal. He is also leaving room and prospects for the trade deadline.

This is the first year of his plan. If you do this for the long term....in four years you will have accumulated many positive assets on the roster.

Yes, the Braves fan in me wants us to go for it...all in. I am pretty happy to not worry about a HO deal to happen because our GM is short sighted.

If we would have signed Harper, left Camargo at 3rd everyone would have been happy most likely. We signed a guy that will probably have a better season for less, and in doing that now have the super utility guy everyone coveted. We signed Nick back for peanuts and still have all our prospects AND have not given up a draft pick.

That’s not horrible, and that’s not punting. Giving a guy the biggest one year deal in MLB history is not punting. We are better and we still have every single asset in place to make ANY move we want.

AA could make three more moves and he will if they are good ones. He has set his self up though, that he doesn’t have to make any and since we have a limited payroll ....that is a very smart GM.

 

[Enscheff]

Machado and Harper (and their agents) have made some mistakes this off-season.

There was a point when Machado could have signed with the Yankees and Harper with the Dodgers. Both teams decided to pivot away because of what the players were looking for as well as the slowness of their decision making.

They also seem not to have recognized that time is not on their side. They have not recognized this in spite of abundant evidence the past few off-seasons that prices drop the deeper you get into the off-season. They probably thought they were special. And they are. But maybe not so special as to defy a growing reluctance on the part of teams to agree to both high AAV and long deals. Players can get one or the other. But it is increasingly unrealistic for them to think they can get both. And Machado especially seems to have been unrealistic about this. Harper has 10 year offers on the table from multiple teams. But he and Boras apparently think they can squeeze a bit more from someone.

Agents are about 5 years behind teams in terms of accurately valuing players, and it is a significant contributing factor in these painfully slow off seasons.