2018 Offseason And Targets

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I wonder if those upset right now would still be upset if the Braves didn't over perform (with the Nats under performing) and win the division last year?
 
Hudson2 said:
Man I hope we didn’t turn down a package of Riley and Wilson with a nobody throw in. If so i lost a lot of faith in AA.
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You would lose faith because our GM wasn't convinced to give up several years of nearly free Riley and Wilson to be projected to win around 4 more games over the next two years?
 
Again. I am glad the faillies over paid for JTR. What I am upset about is how DD attacked this off season. He let the dumbest FO play him like a fiddle. He should have said this is my offer take it or have a good day. Instead he let it sit like a late night booty call. The fish screwed us knowing we were always going to be there but continued to find a better hook up. How can DD get played like that. Then we bring in NEck as our big corner bat. Are you saying we couldnt dip just a little into our prospect capital for peralta or spend a little to get Brantley. You DD defenders wanna explain how dropping a non top 100 prospect for Paxton was going all in. The DD apologist need to remember this when you have to watch freaking raffy Lopez start 50 games this year.
 
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striker42 said:
A more accurate term would perhaps be "Unable to Perform List". However, would that be offensive to men with ED?
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bravesfanMatt said:
Instead he let it sit like a late night booty call. The fish screwed us knowing we were always going to be there but continued to find a better hook up. .
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Is that a known fact? I haven't followed much beyond seeing the Phillies got him and paid what I think is too much to do it.
 
TheBravos said:
Some of you guys are just funny.

We have talked at length about the Tex deal. How under the pressure to win, we gave up too much for two years of a really good player.

Yes..JT is a good player, but my Lord in heaven...you guys are acting like he’s Trout. We aren’t even that weak at catcher.

Many of you guys see AA as sitting back....I see the opposite. I see a guy wise enough to pass, even though he is under huge pressure to win. That is the exact opposite of a weak GM. A weak GM gives them Anderson and Riley plus.

AA crunched the numbers. They made a fair offer and probably never changed that offer. The Phils under huge pressure to win and seeing the Braves might get better...actually caved.

We’ll make a trade. We have MLB ready or close to ready prospects. We’ll sign someone else...we still have money, be he won’t force anything.

AA has a limited payroll. Has no international signings (for the most part), for three more years. After this year we won’t have any high draft picks. Our farm in the lower level is already pretty thin, but you guys want to overpay just because we are able to.

So...because of all of the above....AA is being careful. He HAS to be....hello?? He only has to make a couple bad moves and we are screwed. We aren’t the Phils and Nats. They have the money to go in “win now” mode. Unless you want three more years of what we just came out of in about three more years...I suggest you cool your jets. Be thankful you don’t have a idiot GM willing blow every asset and take every gamble to win for the next few years.
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The distinct difference between the Tex situation and todays situation is that back then, that was our last chance before our window closed up on us. Today, our window has just opened and we have a very good young core.
 
nsacpi said:
Bryce Harper projects to be a 5 WAR player. Donaldson+McCann+Muk project to be 6 WAR players total.

So that's the simple part.

Then add the risk associated with a long-term commitment.

Plus the fact Bryce is going to make an AAV north of the 31M you are assuming.

Plus a good chance we get a draft pick from losing Donaldson.

And your question answers itself.
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So the three "additions" are expected to outperform Harper, but that conveniently leaves out any expected production from additional Camargo/Riley ABs that wouldn't cost you more money and any production you'd get at a minimal cost from a backup Catcher not named McCann (Wieters, Maldonado, Vogt, Hundley, Ellis, and Caleb Joseph are still floating around out there, and another handful of guys signed for less than Mac).

Signing Donaldson and getting a pick is somewhat ridiculous if you could've had Harper since Riley's so close and you have Camargo. Of course the pick has value, but you've really done nothing to improve your chances of winning in the near future - while you still have Freeman, Acuna, and Albies and all the arms are healthy and cheap.

Quantifying and explaining things have "value" is all well and good, but this winter has shown me that I was right way back when the rebuild started - going through it was somewhat stupid if we're going to turn into the Rays/Pirates with a little more money. If you're not willing to do what it takes to win when you have a chance, why play the *amn game at all??? Lengthening windows is a great strategy, but if you're not going to go for it when the window is wide open, the whole exercise is a waste of time - the vast majority of fans have had their fill of "being relevant" for 14 years with one championship to show for it.
 
striker42 said:
There's more to it. I was just on my phone and didn't want to type it all out.

The difference in their points of development are huge in terms of value. Touki has made it to the majors and shown positive signs that he has what it takes to be a difference maker at that level. Sixto hasn't played above A+.

The two hardest jumps for players are the jump between A and AA and the jump from AAA to the majors. The fact that Sixto hasn't made either puts him well behind Touki in terms of value.

Even though the Marlins don't have to care about competing this year, they would be stupid to ignore the fact that a player is MLB ready for no other reason than the reduction in risk. Sixto has a longer way to go and so more opportunities to flame out.

For the record, I'd have been calling for AA to be fired if he'd traded Touki for Realmuto.
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Simply put, you're wrong.

Touki is less valuable than Sixto according to every single prospect list on the planet.

Proximity to the majors makes a guy less risky, but it doesn't always make him more valuable.
 
thewupk said:
I wonder if those upset right now would still be upset if the Braves didn't over perform (with the Nats under performing) and win the division last year?
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On the other side, those not upset, would they be upset if we finish 4th in the division, get a mediocre draft selection, and burn another year of all of our players? I'm sorry, but i'm sick and tired of the "wait until next year" philosophy.....the Braves were once the class of baseball....now we are damn cheapskates...
 
Jaw said:
You would lose faith because our GM wasn't convinced to give up several years of nearly free Riley and Wilson to be projected to win around 4 more games over the next two years?
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Yeah I would. Wilson isn’t gonna make our rotation with all the other options we have so what do we lose there? I like Riley a lot but there are a ton of questions with him so I wouldn’t cry by trading those 2 while adding the best catcher in baseball. Sorry.
 
Earlier this off-season both the Braves and Phillies engaged on Realmuto, but were left with the impression that the Marlins preferred not to trade him within the division. Kind of stupid but that's seems to have been the case.

The Marlins and Phillies re-engaged only after the Marlins had extensive conversations with teams outside the division, including the Padres, Dodgers and Reds.

They came back to the Phillies only after not being fully satisfied with what the other teams offered. Should AA have matched what the Phillies offered. Don't think so. Should he have tried harder earlier in the off-season. Maybe but it seems to me the ask within the division was higher than what teams like the Padres, Dodgers, and Reds were offering. One way or another it doesn't seem that Realmuto was available to us short of a price that was as significant overpay.
 
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CJ9 said:
Heyman says Marlins wanted two of:

-Riley
-Pache
-Wright, Anderson or Wilson

I would've done Riley and Wilson pretty quickly.
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If true, this falls in line almost exactly with what we discussed the cost of JTR to be. Chalk another one up to the spreadsheets.

I agree that Riley/Wilson would have been something I would have done as well, but I am probably the low man around these parts on Riley.
 
Enscheff said:
Simply put, you're wrong.

Touki is less valuable than Sixto according to every single prospect list on the planet.

Proximity to the majors makes a guy less risky, but it doesn't always make him more valuable.
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Prospect lists and actual value to teams are not the same thing.

Considering Sixto's injury issues and distance from the majors, I would pick Touki over him every day of the week. I think Sixto's fastball and ceiling that still has a chance of being elite jump him up the prospect lists. But I'd bet the majority of teams would value Touki more highly.

Of course, there's no objective way for this to be proven right or wrong.
 
So if the Faillies sign Harper. Would they have enough to entice the tribe in trade for Kluber? Something around Nick Williams and two top prospects? They have to get some pitching help
 
striker42 said:
Prospect lists and actual value to teams are not the same thing.

Considering Sixto's injury issues and distance from the majors, I would pick Touki over him every day of the week. I think Sixto's fastball and ceiling that still has a chance of being elite jump him up the prospect lists. But I'd bet the majority of teams would value Touki more highly.

Of course, there's no objective way for this to be proven right or wrong.
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Considering every single prospect list is compiled from sources inside actual baseball teams, and they are listed in terms of FV, you're wrong.

There may be teams who value Touki and Sixto similarly, but that isn't what you said.

You said, "Touki is much more valuable because he's already ready"...which is patently incorrect.
 
I think this does set up a situation where Grandal and Ceveli are going to be logical targets next off-season. We are in a position to go high AAV to keep down length of contract. That's what I would do with those two.
 
striker42 said:
Considering Sixto's injury issues and distance from the majors, I would pick Touki over him every day of the week.
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We all have our own takes on various prospects and that's what makes discussion interesting. But I would be surprised if there was a single GM out there who would take Touki over Sixto.
 
nsacpi said:
We all have our own takes on various prospects and that's what makes discussion interesting. But I would be surprised if there was a single GM out there who would take Touki over Sixto.
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Maaaaaybe a team like the As or Rays who operate on the bleeding edge of value analysis would prefer Touki. We have seen them routinely overvalue guys due to proximity to the majors because they can't even afford to splurge on 1 win roster fillers.

But in general, no, Touki is not "much more valuable" than Sixto.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
So if the Faillies sign Harper. Would they have enough to entice the tribe in trade for Kluber? Something around Nick Williams and two top prospects? They have to get some pitching help
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Idk if they have enough to go out and get a Kluber this offseason, but do they have enough to sign Moustakas and Kimbrel? Probably...
 
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